Should I call facing this turn jam in a 4bet pot?

So if he's jamming on the turn he wants to have the ace of diamonds in his hand?

What does it look like on the river if he bets 40% pot on the turn and gets called?

Interesting to see that it would have been a losing call if I had called the turn. Glad to see that although I still think I misplayed the hand.

I agree most players are never check-folding on the flop, and on the contrary are cbetting close to range.

Interesting to see what equilibrium looks like vs checks too, thanks.

Yes sure I understand that calling/jamming pre with AKs are similar EV and therefore mixing is best.

Agreed that assuming people don't 4bet Ako is definitely a bad assumption.

Yeah 4bet ranges live can definitely get a bit out of whack compared to 3bet ranges. But in my opinion they are good to study because they're a branch of the game tree that most live low stakes players are less familiar with, but also one that is simpler in many regards than SRPs and 3bet pots (due to narrow ranges and low SPR).

I'm a massive nit and my experience of 4betting AKo is very good. Regs will fold QQ/AK...because they know I'm a massive nit.

Interesting, thanks. Yes I agree for sure players overfold vs 4bets and 5bets live.

in theory w the equilbrium of a pre range that has no chance of being accurately adhered to, its a losing call. i think its possible you're printing here in practice vs this player, although we'd need some fairly large assumptions.
AK no d is a fairly egregious cbetting mistake here though as him, like it's actually losing overall and about ~12bb worse than checking is.

questionable how useful and relevant the sim is, but i do think its a decent takeaway ranges are way too tight and he got too much ak to cbet here. it reminds me quite a bit the dynamics on both sides of like bvb, both the 4b composition and also ip response vs the 4b in terms of hands it traps vs jams with

Interesting, thanks. I agree that it's extremely unlikely most villains play their ranges correctly in 4bet pots, especially OOP as the 4-bettor. This hand being a good example of how many of them are inclined to bet close to range (probably under the assumption that they can't "show weakness" or they'll get bluffed, as hero will quite rightly put them on AK a lot of the time when they check on a Q-high board).

Definitely there is a big difference between sim output and live low stakes poker, but it's still very useful to look at.

What hands does IP like to trap/jam in b vs b facing an OOP 4bet? My cash ranges are from Modern Poker Theory, which I believe may be getting a little dated, but I have the BB response to SB 4bet as follows:

that looks pretty right to me. its going to be rake / sizing reflexive but its basically just trap your very good hands. deep doesn't seem to change that much you just jam less but its mostly going to be based around KK / AKo

also i figured out how to post ss so im excited about that

Cool, thanks. Great about the screenshots, that will certainly help!

Vs a younger unknown player I would probably lean towards jamming pre.

As played I kind of doubt he is just monkey jamming AK on the turn. But it's not impossible. Nonetheless, I think we fold.

We can raise flop too.

This has nothing to do with the hand itself but 10% up to 10 plus 2 is an insane amount of rake for a 2/5 game. Over the course of 8 hours the house is going to rake like 4 buyins off the table. 6+1 is an insane amount of rake for 5/10 but it’s still a game you can beat for a good amount of money. 10+2 at 2/5 I’m not going to say the game is not beatable but whatever you’re beating it for you’re getting so much raked off your hourly that you’re basically just getting taken advantage of as a winning player by being a rake generator.

Like if you win 3 pots an hour on average now you’re paying like $30 an hour to play poker basically which is coming out of your winrate also your win rate is going to be lower because money is getting raked off the table so fast that your winning all in shoves that go to showdown are going to be smaller. So if you were a $50 an hour winner maybe now you’re a $15 an hour winner. 6+1 you’d still be like a $35 an hour winner. It’s just so high rake that unless there were players who were just punting stacks constantly I wouldn’t play in the game.

He has kings or aces.

Sure, jamming pre is probably fine. I was just a bit spooked with the strength of the ranges (UTG 4bet vs UTG+2 3bet) and decided to call as a result (and also accounting for the fact that 4bet ranges live are generally extremely narrow and value-heavy). In hindsight, jamming may have been better. In any case what happened in the hand was the worst possible outcome for my hand, having piled in money and then getting priced out of calling with a big draw.

I also doubted he was monkey jamming AK on the turn, and I was wrong.

We can certainly raise flop. Which hands would you use to balance the raise?

The rake is indeed very bad in this game. Unfortunately I have few other options for now, but in any case the rake is much the same in most of the major casinos in BC. The game is beatable but of course would be beatable for much more if it had reasonable rake. This is the reality of live poker in Canada, and it's even worse on the east coast. At the Great Canadian Casino Resort in Toronto, the $1/$3 game is raked at 10% up to $20, which is absolutely criminal. Playground Montreal is not much better. The $2/$5 game there is raked at 10% up to $14+$2 for bonuses (recently reduced from $16+$2) and $1/$3 is 10$ up to $11+$2.

It certainly felt that way.

You have to call pre to the small sizing. I would shove the flop. You are not getting the right odds against QQ/KK/AA, but sometimes he has AK or some sort of preflop bluff. As played, you probably have to fold the turn, because your odds are much worse, and he doesn't have AK or a preflop bluff often enough.

Agreed.

Yeah, Canadian rake is much worse than in the US. In Germany and some other places, it is 5% to E20 with no tipping expected, which isn't that much worse than the US.

Yeah that's pretty good. You can compare it to the rake in my game (10% up to $10+$2) as follows:

a) 10% up to $10+2 vs b) 5% up to $20

Potsize:

$50 a) $7 b) $2.50

$100 a) $12 b) $5

$150 a) $12 b) $7.50

$200 a) $12 b) $10

$240 a) $12 b) $12

$250 a) $12 b) $12.50

$300 a) $12 b) $15

$350 a) $12 b) $17.50

$400 a) $12 b) $20

Seeing as the average potsize is around 16bbs ($80), b) is clearly preferable, and only becomes the worse deal once pots get over $240 (48bbs).

We don't need tonworry about being balanced on the flop unless we are going to play a lot vs villain and to a lesser extent others at the table. But for value we can raise 88, QQ, KK, AA, and for bluffs, mainly AK even without diamonds, 76 if we ever have it, 65s if we ever have it, occasionally under pairs. But you're mainly doing this to put pressure on AK. Without really knowing villain's range, it is difficult to assume they are going to be 4betting AKo at a high frequency.

Interesting. So what range of hands would you play as a call in UTG+2 vs UTG 4bet?

AA when trapping, QQ, mixing call/fold with JJ, TT, and calling sometimes with the low frequency 3bets like 88, 77 suited connectors. If I think villain is capable of 4betting more than AK and JJ+, AQs is usually a reasonable defend vs 4b as well, but tanges are supposed to be very tight vs UTG, so AQs might not make the cut even. AKs and KK mixing 5bet and call also. AKo in theory should mix call/fold 5bet but I would probably make that very villain dependant, probably erring more towards jam or call unless vs someone I think is very tight with AKo.

Sounds pretty solid to me.

Speaking to the reads, as well as the points being made about V's range on the flop and turn, how many and what bluffs he may have...

We can look at V's 4B size and see that he isn't yet pot committed, which leaves room for him to have some 4B-fold bluffs in his range. But if he's remotely competent, those would seem to be mostly AX hands like AKo or A5s, and maybe AQs. Maybe he also 4B-folds with TT-QQ, but without more history on him, we don't know.

If we give V those bluffs pre - AKo, AQs, and A5s, he makes a pair on the flop with AQ and A5, so his only bluffs on the turn are AKo. Even if he has AQ or A5, I question how often he's turning those hands into bluffs by jamming the turn, when we could have AA/KK/QQ and AQ in our range, and we might get sticky with AXdd.

If we give him credit for only bluffing with AK, AQ an A5 pre, and NOT jamming turn with AQ or A5, then we have to wonder how often he's jamming AKo with no diamonds. I think we should err on the side of assuming he doesn't jam AK no diamonds very often at all.

From hero's perspective, then, we're looking at a range that has AA, KK, and QQ, some slivers of AQ or A5 - all of which we lose to - and some fairly unlikely slivers of AKo that are just a chop if we don't spike a diamond on the river. For those reasons, the turn seems like it has to be a fold.

But going back to pre and the flop - if we look at his pre-flop sizing, and believe he has some 4B-folds in his range, perhaps including TT-QQ, AKs looks like a good hand to jam pre. Even if V has AQ or A5, the flop still seems like a good spot to jam, because AQ and A5 can fold, and even if they call, we've got 12 outs to win.

If we think he's only 4B'ing AA/KK pre, and therefore we want to flat call and see a flop, I still think the flop is a good spot to jam, with 9 outs against AA, and 12 against KK, especially when we can (and should) expect him to jam turn with AA/KK if we just smooth call his flop bet. He might even occasionally fold KK, and possibly even AA, thinking we're only jamming QQ for value, and may only be bluffing with AKdd/A5dd.

If we jam AKs pre and get snapped off by JJ+/AK, so be it. We're not doing terribly against that range. Yes, we should give 4B's their due respect, but we can do that by folding out all our light 3B's.

For sure, given his 4bet range, it's absolutely mandatory that he uses AKo and A5s (and any other random low frequency bluff 4bets he might have) as his postflop bluffs, because there are no other hands in his range that he can use to balance his value hands, as everything else in his range that bets the flop is an overpair. I imagine JJ should be check-calling this flop, but that's debatable. The fact that A5s flopped a pair isn't relevant, because it's still so close to the bottom of villain's range that it should be used as a bluff. How to play AQ is a good question, I imagine it's meant to cbet flop most of the time and then mix on the turn between value betting and check-calling, but that's just a guess.

submersible mentioned that jamming AK no diamond is a clear EV mistake, but I think it's a mistake that even good players will make in a 4bet pot on a Q high board under the assumption that they have to use AK combos as a bluff, and they may suspect that if they only use combos with a diamond then they do not have enough bluffs to balance their value range. What it actually means is that their absence of bluffs means they have to be more conservative with how many hands they cbet, because they're going to become too value-heavy otherwise (and this is even moreso the case on an A or K high board, where the combos of AK obviously become value bets). In other words, 4bet pots (at least in my experience) are often badly misplayed, even by good players. Bad passive players, on the other hand, will make the mistake of checking all AK combos on a Q high board, which is obviously very transparent and makes them very easy to play against because their betting range is totally face up and an IP hero can steal the pot a large portion of the time when villain checks to them. Realistically, I'd say the large majority of the player pool cbet close to their range in 4bet pots, but what percentage of them follow through with the turn jam with AK is definitely another question altogether. Most players at live low stakes are value-heavy, and I agree with you that on the turn my hand should be a regrettable fold.

Definitely it's a good spot to 5bet jam pre as long as we are fairly certain villain has a reasonable 4betting range. I'd only played a single orbit against this villain up until this hand was played, which, along with the fact that very tight ranges were in play (UTG+2 vs UTG 4bet) led to my calling rather than ripping it.

Yes jamming flop is probably fine for hero, as long as villain is cbetting with enough bluffs. One benefit of doing so is that I imagine some of his AK combos that bet the flop are meant to call the jam, which gets hero value with the freeroll, but also exploits villains who are not aware how wide they're meant to call the jam (which I imagine is a fair amount of villains, because 4bet pots are understudied, and nobody likes playing for stacks with ace-high. Of course he should never fold KK or AA).

The fact that A5 (and AQ) make a pair on the flop would seem to be relevant to the extent that those hands are beating our AK on the turn, even if they're "bluffs".

You appear to be assuming that V is going to be "balanced" in his actions, whereas I think that becomes increasingly less likely with each action in this hand. He may be 4B'ing light pre, but some of his light 4B's should be check-give-ups on the flop or turn, IF he's balanced.

But he either IS or ISN'T balanced, and we can decide what we want to do here by looking at either / both possibilities:

1. He IS balanced - if he's balanced, he's going to have some less than all-in c-bets, some all-in jams, some check-calls, some check-folds, and some check-raises on the flop. When he c-bets less than all-in, we don't know if he's balanced or not, but if we assume he is, then we have to figure out how our hand fares against the hands in his range that get c-bet.

2. He ISN'T balanced - if he's not balanced, then he has no checks on the flop, just c-bets that are less than all-in (we're making this assumption here because that's what he did - he c-bet less than all-in). When he c-bets, his range includes all the hands that would check or jam if he WAS balanced. We can now just figure out how our hand fares against his entire range.

We can go further down the game tree, and see that if he IS balanced, he's going to have some hands that c-bet the flop, but then check turn. If he is NOT balanced, he's just jamming turn whenever we flat call the flop (again, this is our assumption about what he does when he's not balanced, because it's what he did here).

When he jams turn, it's certainly POSSIBLE that he IS balanced, and this is just the line he takes with some part of his range. But it seems more likely that he is NOT balanced when he 4B's pre, c-bets flop and jams turn, if for no other reason than it's hard to be balanced in that line, but also because we haven't seen him do anything yet to indicate he is balanced.

(To be fair - we could also say he might be imbalanced if he has no c-bets on flop and no jams on turn, or in any line that is 100% this or that, but it seems less likely any V would have 0% c-bets / jams after 4B'ing pre, especially on a two-flush board).

Like I said in my earlier post, I don't think V is very likely to jam AQ or A5 here, when he's losing to all our AA/KK/QQ, he's only partially blocking our AA, his A5 loses to our AQ, and his AQ is at best chopping with our AQ, but he's still ahead of our AK.

For the same reasons, I think it's unlikely he jams AKo, but I'll allow that jamming AKo makes more sense than jamming AQ or A5, since AKo has no showdown value and little to no hope of improving against our range on this board.

But all that assumes he IS balanced, and HAS to have SOME bluffs when he jams. In a 4-bet pot, after we call his flop c-bet, most V's are NOT going to have any bluffs when they jam turn. Most V's are not going to be balanced here.

If we believe this V is capable of being balanced, then we have to count up all his bluff combos and value combos, and see if we're getting the right price to call (I would suspect not, even giving him every combo of AK, since we still lose to his "bluffs" of AQ and A5).

But if we have any doubt about whether or not V is balanced, then the turn is just an easy fold, because he has no bluffs if he's unbalanced. And ideally, we should be thinking about this pre, but especially on the flop, when we get here the way we did with AKdd, and get this board.

If WE want to be balanced, we need some bluffs, and AKdd is the best bluff possible on the flop, whether V c-bets with any bluffs or not. It really doesn't matter if he doesn't. Like, what are our value hands if we jam flop, other than AA, KK, and QQ, if we're saying AQ is a bluff? (If you're not saying AQ is a bluff, I'm saying it, because what is AQ beating that will call a jam?)

Even if he only 4B's AA/KK pre, and only / always c-bets AA/KK on the flop, we should expect him to jam turn on a brick, and he may check-fold on a diamond, but he MIGHT fold AA/KK if we jam flop (even if he shouldn't), and even if he doesn't, we have 12 outs against KK, and 9 against AA.

We can debate whether or not to 5B pre. I think at this stack depth, against this V, it's better to 5B. But we shouldn't debate jamming or calling the flop. It's just a jam, all day, when we flat pre, and see this board.