$2/$5 NL with 99 in BB
V is rich mid 50's asian dude. He's not a maniac and he plays on average 2 hands every 3 orbits. I saw him go all in with the following (these all-ins are huge overbets compared to the size of the pot:
1. 9 high Flush Draw on Flop.
2. AQ on the Flop with Ace on board and no draws
3. Other numerous times, but the hand was folded and he took down the pot
I have $2,500 behind and V has me covered
I have 9♦9♥ in BB. 6 people limp to me and I make it $50. Only V calls in HJ.
($125) 8♣7♥2♣ I bet $100 and V calls.
($325) 5♦ I bet $165 and V pushes all-in
Hero?
lol idk what ranges we are putting V on for limp/calling a 10x raise, but the output is worthless unless we have proper PF ranges.
GTO does a huge amount of flop range checking OOP as the PFR, because it incorrectly expects V to have a tight extremely strong capped range.
That kind of jam looks like a snap turbo fold. I think flop and turn are fine but i personally woudkve gone like 33% on the flop and 125% on the turn.
The only hands I can think of that make any sense within the context of our limited read are Ac5c and maybe 6c5c. If V is super-tight, I could see him limp-calling pre with those hands, calling flop, and jamming turn when he makes a pair to go with his flush draw.
The earlier hands make me think this guy is either jamming TPGK (the AQ on ace-high board hand) or a reasonably high-equity draw (9-high flush hand). Maybe he doesn't like getting it in on the flop with A5cc / 65cc because the stacks are too deep here, but he likes it better when he picks up some additional outs to trips to go with whatever draw he was on.
Not that I think hero should call, because the SPR is insane, but I wouldn't be shocked if hero is ahead.
88 77 22, 87s, just because he jammed with a draw before doesnt mean he cant have it here.
Thanks All for the comments/opinions. i folded and V mucked, i'm still not sure if i made the right decision...fml...
Maybe it's me, but for 500bb I'd much rather make a bad laydown than a bad call. Maybe the psychology shouldn’t be a factor here, but with me it certainly would be. I'd just fold here and not lose any sleep over it, but to be fair I don't ever see any 500bb bluffs in my game. It's just always value, mostly the (effective) nuts.
