3! squeezing with AJs in a straddle pot

He probably calls 150 to 200, and then we have 150 behind into 300 otf (not good) so I would either raise AI now or just fold, esp if you think he has a sizing tell.

However, 2 to 3 orbit's is nothing if that's the only read you have.

His raise size seems unremarkable, given the straddle and 3 limps.

I'd wanna see more of what he's opening pre with, since we're only 100 bb's (50 w/the straddle) and I don't love laying odds hoping he folds. "A bit loose pre" isn't really a maniac. My default there would be to fold unless I saw he's opening a lot of junk hands.

I said he was TAG, not a maniac/LAG. I assume he's raising with a TAG's normal BTN raising raise after a bunch of limpers.

I know, I was saying if he was a maniac then I would lay the money in a heart beat but stacks are alil awkward, it's a RIO/high variance spot. I would just fold but that's just me since I prefer being deeper to 3! so we can bet 4x and have room to play post flop.

Tough spot with only 50 bb in the SB. Correct action is read dependent. Does V like to gamble? To the hero’s jam, does V fold AQs and AKo? Does V fold medium pairs? In my cardroom the average TAG folds AQ and medium pairs but calls AK and premiums, so you’re a 30 percent dog if V calls.

I can see myself folding or jamming, probably more folding. I’d want a better read to jam.

Huh, size seems big to me, I would get folds at 30 (likely everyone).

Fold.

Folding and doesn’t seem close.

Jamming/raising is the only play here - I think with this hand you just fold without having more info. You would need him to be isoing extremely wide to make up for the times he has better hands and snaps you off - doesn't sound like you have enough info here to make that decision so fold and move on.

The rest of the hand:

1-3-6...three limps to Villain on the BTN who raises to $50, Hero in the SB looks down at A♦ J♦.

Hero raises to $150, folded to Villain who shoves, Hero calls for his remaining $150. Villain shows AA, wins run-out, Hero doesn't show.

When I first thought about my play, I assumed I was just coolered, until everyone here said I should have just folded, after which I realized that AJs might not be enough of a hand to raise/shove when starting with only 50BB. However, when I started to run the math, it looks like:

I give Villain and his pot-size raise the very tight range of the top 12% of hands, and assume he only calls/shoves with the top 4% (AQo/JJ+).

Hero is a 71% to 29% dog against this range, and loses an average of $130 dollars...when Villain calls with this top third of his range.

Hero wins approx. $65-$70...the 2/3 of the time Villain folds.

My calculations are pretty rough, but maybe it's actually a fairly close decision?

Maybe 50 is his standard over this many limpers but I find the larger they go the better their hand. Maybe he goes 40 with AQ? I think his raise is better than top 12% (what’s the bottom of a 12% range?)

Either way I don’t think AJ is doing well and I think you have very little fold equity.

Top 12% of hands are 88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+

It's difficult for me to believe that in a straddle pot after 3 limpers that a somewhat splashy TAG on the BTN who was sitting on at least $700 would be raising much tighter than the above range. I obviously have no way to know if he was sizing up due to hand strength, but I had previously seen him raise a single limper in an unstraddled-pot to $20 (and didn't show).

FWIW, if he shoved/called with the entire range above it would be a literal coin flip vs. AJs.

If your assumptions are right then it’s close. I also don’t think he’s calling off with AQ which makes it better for you.

I just fold and look for a better spot. This happened last night for me but I was IP and missed the guy was only like 200$ eff, he shoved and I called it off and lucky he had TT and I hit an A.. but -EV imo

To add after reading others posts - its a million limps to him and people limp AA and certainly AQ and AK at my game.

The value from a shove comes from getting V to fold better. I think V always folds AQo, some fold AKo too, others will call with medium pairs. Readless, it’s hard to know, but I would guess Hero is closer to a 36 percent dog against a called shove.

A shove is a high variance play. My bankroll couldn’t handle it. But I’m leaning toward shove now.

If I’m playing a tournament with 50 BB in the SB with AJs against a 8x open raise on the button over three limpers, I’m always shoving.

So if you win 65-70 2/3 of the time and lose 130 1/3, sounds like it's close to breakeven? The problem is we don't know exactly how wide he isos here. If he isos a tighter range you're burning money - a wider range than you're making money, but that's a big if. We do know with 100% frequency he'll iso the top 5% or so - maybe sometimes he isos a hand like KTo and sometimes doesn't, so I think he needs to be doing this extremely wide.

KTo is as the bottom of the 12% range. Getting rid of all of the non-A, unsuited Bdways drops Villain to an 11% raising raise.

I think it's a pretty clear fold in theory, but TAGs in these games ISO too large, too wide, and with too linear of ranges, making this a lot closer than it should be (which is reflected in your calcs).

That said...

This doesn't account for any of the other 4 remaining players showing up with a top 2.5% hand, giving you more like 60% fold equity. (This also leads to some fringe scenarios that add ~$2 in EV, like 3-way AIPF and HU AIPF with the ISOer's money dead in the pot).

All things told, it looks to me like shoving is a 1-1.5 straddle mistake, with a small 3b being a slightly bigger mistake than that.

The exact combos they're raising isn't as important as the total percentage. They'll have the lower offsuit broadways <100% (I personally don't have ATo/KJo in my top 10% range at all), but they'll have SCs, lower PPs, etc >0%.

Anywhere in the 10-15% range seems perfectly fair.

just a fold, at 1-3-6 huge raises like that is always the nuts

Raise isn’t excessively large: 5x + 3 limpers = 48. Raising to 40 would be small.

Im trying to put this into GTO terms looking at how GTOwizard responds. Closest I think i can do is 20 BB deep UTG minraises 19.1% of the time.

a min raise would be for 10% of stack, which is still less than the $50 raise here that is for 12.5% of hero's stack, and youre saying youd put him on a 12% range rather than the 19% range.

In GTO 20 BB deep, SB is 3 betting to 6 BB (so basically $150) with A7s+, KTs+, 77+, AJo+, and is calling a jam with AJs.

with the tighter range, and with less invested and with more to call, and with another player left to act, and with higher rake id say basically every option is borderline (fold raise or call is borderline preflop, although call is weaker mostly because of the rake. Call or fold to the jam is borderline as well).

I wouldnt say that a $50 raise is incredibly "standard" here. I feel like a standard RFI sizing when 1/3 starts seeing straddles is around $25, and maybe $30-35 with a few limpers, so id be incredibly suspicious of the larger sizing unless I had seen him use it several times before, and I would lean fold. As has been discussed before, the "absolute value" of the bet is important, not just the percentage of BB, which is why the raise sizing doesnt tend to double at 1/3 when a straddle is added. But I dont think this is a spot where you stand to win or lose a huge amount of EV with basically any decision (including a call), so i wouldnt worry a huge amount about this spot.

Ill also say this is a spot where you can fold purely to avoid variance, because I just dont think theres a lot of money to be gained here to even bother with the variance.

After all of the analysis, I already figured I was in a high variance situation at either the indifference point between folding/raising or was slightly -EV.

It's better than thinking it was a punt, which is what the earlier comments were suggesting in regards to raising/shoving.

Yeah my vote is “not a punt, still a fold”. But it could be a punt or call depending on your image and a million factors regarding V (especially the sizing as i mentioned, but there are a bunch of others like timing tells, relevant HH, etc.) There’s a certain gut feel to live poker in spots like this sometimes