Live 1/2 Hand Review

If anyone is positionally aware then this should be very tight, but the cold callers (not one but two!) make the hand pretty weird. Two uncapped players and a hand which can be dominated don't make this "slam dunk" for me and without the cold callers I'd mostly fold this. The dead money makes it a defendable play for 100BB IMO, but you're probably not much better than break even, so get your wallet ready.

Do you think either player will fold AK?

The reason I made the play was because I didn't see the uncapped players being too strong most of the time.
I feel my jam gets through here a decent amount of the time. (Spoiler alert, it didn't ��😉

Not good. AQo is an easy fold facing a raise and 3b. AKo is miles ahead of AQo in terms of squeezing here. You cut KK in half and are flipping vs QQ where you were dominated. QQ+ and AK jamming here is probably good, maybe JJ.

Also AQo is 28% vs KK and 30% vs QQ. And while that isn't horrible, it's not great either considering you were risking 210 in hopes of taking down 118 in dead money. If we have 33% equity we need about 33% fold equity to break even. I am not sure we get through everyone that often.

Keep in mind the cold callers aren't necessarily as capped as you might think here. They often have a hand as strong as AKo, QQ, occasionally even KK. Or a weaker pocket pair but still calling off sometimes in my experience.

Another thing to consider is, even if v has light 3 bets as they should, a sizeable portion of their range is just going to be TT+ and AK.

Easy fold at 1/2. 3! ranges tend to be really tight. Shove is terrible. It will go through fairly often, but you only win 45. Seems like you can't fold a strong hand preflop.

3!s light for 1/2 may mean not just with KK+. You are going to run into QQ+/AK enough, and they aren't folding to a short stack shove.

I think you missed that there were two cold-callers of the 3-bet. I would reverse that, it won't go through very often, but when it does, you'll win $115 (assuming the blinds get raked away, $118 if it is "no flop, no drop.")

Yeah, agree with MLark above. The cold-callers are not as capped as you think they are. Also, even if UTG+1 over 3-bets, he did so from UTG+1. Unless he is completely postionally unaware, his range should be pretty strong here. I would not count on much FE.

First off a _squeeze_ is when you have a single raise and a bunch of calls.

Let me put it this way:

UTG robot opens 2.25x
folds to CO
CO robot has AQo and 3bets 50%

UTG robot opens 2.25x
folds to MP
MP robot calls
folds to CO
CO robot has AQo and pure folds (also: AQs 3bet/calls about 10%/90% and AKo 3bet/calls 90%/10%)
(note that AQo pure 3bet squeeze when it's MP open + HJ call).

LO robot opens 2.25x (only have cold 3bet responses for 6max)
HJ robot 3bets
CO robot has AQo/AQs/TT and pure folds (also ~85% fold JJ and call the rest, and 4bet/calls QQ about 80%/20%).

With $118 out there already I don’t think a shove is terrible. If you get AQ, AK, JJ, TT types hands to folds it’s a huge win. If you get called in 1 spot there’s $513 out there and you probably have 3 outs which is bad but not terrible. I think clearly folding here is standard and advisable but a shove every once in a while isn’t terrible.

Personally, I don't like it, but if you wanna be that guy, it's probably not that bad.

First issue is that it's an UTG open and an UTG+1 3bet, which obviously in theory means very tight and strong ranges (in practice and at 1/2 maybe not so much, but still - it's far from ideal). The two callers probably don't mean much in terms of anything to worry about, but there is also the possibility that one of them has a hand (they've both cold-called in a situation where ranges are meant to be very strong - maybe they don't realize that, but you still can't ignore it).

In my experience, high variance plays are definitely not the most efficient way to beat low stakes games. So if your goal is to grind an hourly, I'd avoid plays like this. But if you just want to gamble and have a good time, by all means pull the trigger. A good question is what range of hands do this at GTO equilibrium, and what is the EV of doing it with your hand?

Suppose it somewhat depends on our table image. If our opponents think we're LAG, this is never getting through. If they think we're TAG, it has a chance. If we've been playing really tight, and only showing down strong hands after raising or 3B'ing pre, we can expect it to get through often enough, maybe.

Guessing that this one didn't get through.