AA vs donk bet on a 974 board. Fold?
5/5
~$1100 effective
SB - 30 y o, regish type of player. Plays tight and reasonable, haven’t seen him do anything stupid.
UTG opens to $20, CO calls, Hero(BU) A♦A♠ 3bets to $100, SB calls, UTG calls, CO folds
Flop($325) 9♦ 7♣ 4♦
SB donks $300, UTG folds, Hero($1000 left) - ?
I’m blocking possible draws, and I still beat hands like QQ or JJ, but how often are people playing those hands this way?
Not folding the flop. If we fold every over-pair whenever V donks for a PSB, that would seem insanely exploitable.
Might fold turn if he continues to fire big bets at it. Aside from spiking an ace, sort of praying for the board to pair 4's, or for another diamond.
Hard to figure out what a tight / reasonable reg has when he cold calls a 20bb 3B from the SB, then donks out for a PSB into two opponents on this flop.
Sure seems like 99. Maybe 77 at some lower frequency. Maybe TT-QQ. Maybe 65dd. Hard to credit the "tight reg" read if he gets here with T8, 97, or 86.
The good news here is if we call flop, he's probably donk-jamming most turns, and we can just get away from it. Otherwise, if he checks, we can check back and see a free river card.
Without the A♦ I would just jam. With it, I flat.
Cold calls of 3 bets are AK AQ and like QQ-?? Pocket pairs all day. With V being tight, i think he isnt as likely to cold call with 77, which is good news, and he isnt as likely to cold 4 bet with QQ which is also good news. The old thought process was that donk bets are weak made hands, but i am a bit wary of the very large sizing. I just cant fold here to exactly 99, theres enough TT-QQ (maybe KK) to just call down/GII (if he checks turn/river, you just bet it, cuz it means he in fact has TT-KK)
I could see us fold QQ here. AA is doing way better than that, there's just so much weird KK/QQ that thinks they're good & scared to let cards peel off. I prefer calling over shoving on flop.
Did we get results?
this is 99 or 77 almost ALWAYS.
I've seen many tight players do this with a set when there's a FD otf. They don't think along the lines of a possible c/r bc they're much more worried about the flush coming.
I don't see any draws here since tighter players hardly flat AKs to big 3bets from the blinds and we're the ones with AA in our range. If he's tight and never gets OOL like hero said, I'd just fold.
