Should I have 3-bet my trips on the turn? (1/2/5)
Not too much info on V. seemed quite aggressive from my 30 mins playing with him.
It was a 1-2 game but the table agreed to make it 1-2-5. 6-Handed. $150 effective.
V limps from MP , SB limps. Hero checks from BB. ( 8 ♦️ 5♣️😉
Flop: 8 ♣️ 6♥️ 3♥️ (Pot $15)
SB checks. Hero bets $7. V calls.
Turn: 8 ♠️ (Pot $28)
Hero bets $20. V raises to $40.
Hero?
(I thought of raising it to $100 here, but I didn't see him calling with many worse hands. Is this just an easy call?)
7 Replies
Starting out $150 effective, yes, it's an easy call, in a limped pot.
We probably have the best hand. We're not guaranteed to have the best hand. There aren't many worse 8x combos V is likely to have, unless he's limping in with 84 and 82.
Starting at 150 effective pot is 108 if you call and $98 effective behind. I think just rip it in. Maybe they call of with a combo draw or even as light as 6x.
Not planning on hero folding most rivers so why flat? If they have it they have it. You said it is now a 1/2/5 game. We have trips in a 30bb spot. It's going in.
seems like a pretty trivial shove
I just call. I want to keep him in and I don't think he's calling a shove w/ worse.
What Javanewt said / clarifying what I said...
I'm not worried V has better 8x. If he does, he does.
But V is described as "quite aggressive".
He could have some raises here that aren't 8x, and at least some, if not most of those will fold if we 3B / shove, whereas V is calling the shove with every hand better than ours, and it's next to impossible for him to have a worse 8x than ours, assuming he's only raising 8x for value on the turn.
Even if he limps in with every combo of 84s and 82s, that's just two combos. If it's 84o and 82o, okay, still just 8 combos.
But he could be raising with 55, 77, or 99, or some straight or flush draws. If we're going broke against better trips or 66/33, we can go broke on the river. No sense in shutting out all of V's worse hands that fold to a 3B.
There's a ~6% chance the river is a 5, and we stack all of V's 66/33 and straights. We also stack all his flushes if it's the 5h. All his PP's and 1P hands boat up and are going to have a hard time folding on the 2% chance the river is the case 8.
Even if the river is a brick, he may not believe we flat-called his turn raise with trips, and he'll again if we check to him, if he really is aggressive.
If V's on a draw, there are potentially 22 river cards that might make him a better hand. That's going to happen around 40%-45% of the time, and even when it does happen, we're not folding no matter how much he bets, assuming we check, so it's not worth worrying about.
The rest of the time, the river is just going to be a brick, and we can donk jam, or check-call. If we're happy to just go with our hand, I'd prefer to flat call turn, and then decide what we want to do on the river based on what card it is.
I’m calling and just calling river unless we make a boat or quads.
A lot of times this min raise is going to be a stop raise. He will check back river unimproved. If he is going to bluff the river sometimes, okay we can flat, but population will underbluff. You can't expect weak players at low stakes to put in the money for you, but they will make bad calls or he may be pot committed with a combo draw.
And again, it's 30bb. Just stick the money in.