How to navigate our gapper 68s on the button for three street?
1/2. Weekday afternoon session. 8-handed.
Hero had just under 300 at the beginning of this hand. Everyone else covers.
PF
UTG +1 limped (Asian guy 30ish VPIP about 20%)
HJ limped (bad reg VPIP 90%)
CO limped (first time seeing this guy, probably a beginner, overfolds to hero's aggression).
H opened to 12 with 6♣8♣ on the button.
SB called (first time seeing this guy, seemed fairly tight, vpip less than 10% so far, have not seen much aggression from him yet. At the beginning of the session, when H 3-bet on the button against two shorter-stacked villains, he had a painful tank before folding probably something like TT or JJ).
BB called, everyone else apart from CO called. 5 ways.
Flop (62)
6♠3♠4♦
SB x, BB x, UTG+1 led for 30, HJ folded.
H called (anyone prefers a raise or fold here?)
SB called, BB folded. 3-ways to see the turn.
Turn (152)
A♥
SB x, UTG+1 asked to see my stack, I had about 254 left at this point. He eventually decided to check.
Hero thought we probably had the best hand so far. Anyway, hero bet out 100 with 154 left.
SB tank called.
UTG+1 folded.
Is jamming the turn a bit of an overplay? Or anyone think we shall bet smaller? It seems to me that the sb is very capped. His check-call on the flop and turn with actions behind him is confusing to me.
River (352)
K♣
It's great that the FD does not get there, and there is no one liner to a straight.
SB checked to us.
Now, with 154 left, what range do we put SB in, and do we wanna jam to get thin value from 67s, 65s, 54s, 55, or do we check back?
If we do jam, is this the so called value-bluff? We can possibly get worse hands to call, and better hands (77-99) to fold?
Thanks everyone in advance.
That said, your reply here is fair, inasmuch as I think it's easy for me and everyone else on this forum to fall into the trap of giving advice that is not only based on more limited info, but also tends to presuppose bad outcomes, leading us to advise people to play a hand differently than they actually played it. It wouldn't surprise me if the advice given in one thread often contradicts that in another thread.
Great point. We just saw one comment right after your reply to prove your point spot-on.
It's always a challenge to think what might have happened if we played the hand differently. Would a turn jam have folded out his hand? Maybe, but if not, and he calls with a draw, you still lose on the river.
Alternatively, if you checked back turn, would he have folded to a river jam, or would he have doubted you'd check back turn with an ace or better, or that you got to the river with a better Kx, and therefore looked you up?
Easy for me to sit here and second-guess you. I do think a smaller 1/3 pot bet on turn and a river jam had the best chance to get through, but I can't lie and say I know for sure that I'd have found that precise line in game. And I suppose we could debate how credible that line would seem, had you over-limped pre, as I and others suggested.
Mostly what others said (limp or fold pre, fold flop, don't bet turn), but I'd also lean way more towards check behind on the river than anything else. There's a reason people don't turn pairs into bluffs much at 1-2 ... V will call any Ax and probably way more Kx than you'd think because he's played any2 from the blinds and has a "good" pair now.
V will also have way too much trash like J7s/65o that you just win against when you check back.
There's not even many better 6x hands you can get to fold (A6/K6 are both the nuts), dito. if he called flop with a good 2nd/3rd pair like A4/A3.
I doubt V ever raises Ax on turn, in fact I wouldn't be shocked if he plays a bunch of 2 pair this way (esp. 64/63/43 but maybe even A3/A4/A6 too).
Maybe you can get 77 to fold.
Preflop doesn't lose much. There are some flops you hit hard. Then if it comes K74, r for example and it is checked to you, you have a very profitable 1/3 pot cbet. As the preflop raiser, you can have AA/KK/AK/KQ/KJ and then 99-QQ may be ahead of whatever they have. On this particular board, you also have a gutshot you might hit.
However, raising larger if you are going to raise is better, to take down the limps or get it 2 or 3 -way. Then you can bluff certain boards you miss.
When there is a bet and call on the flop, you can't continue, even though you are sometimes ahead. Any 6 and small overpairs are ahead and they should have draws if they are behind.
Fish could easily have an A or K. You can't really represent an A or K, because you should have folded most As and Ks on the flop. Plus your sizing preflop looks like a pot builder with a small pp, suited broadway, etc.
