QQ vs $700 turn jam at 2/5
Friday night at around 10:00. V is a late 30s asian rec who has been at the table for 1-1.5 hours. Table has been a bit splashy, we have been straddling UTG, but V has been playing tight over this small sample. My guess is he's on the nittier side but when my sample is this small, I'm often surprised. I've been playing standard TAG.
UTG straddle, I open QhQ LJ to $30, BU pro calls, BB calls.
Pot: $100
Flop:Th6c3h
X, H$75, call call.
Pot: $325
Turn 3d
X, H$200, fold, BB shoves $700. H?
I think the two key questions are:
1. Do people jam boats here? He's OOP so could be worried about a river check back, but I don't remember recs jamming boats here too often
2. How many bluffs does he have
Call basically breaks even if he has A3s, 43s, and then two bluffs like A6+A5hh. Not sure if 53s/43s call pre and/or overcalls flop.
Sorry if this hand is obvious, I basically haven't played in a year and I'm looking for some feedback.
8 Replies
So you have to defend like 55 to 60pc here I think. So it's closer. Maybe fold holding the heart?
I think you could have checked turn to avoid this
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So you have to defend like 55 to 60pc here I think. So it's closer. Maybe fold holding the heart?
I think you could have checked turn to avoid this
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I’m not a big fan of checking turns when there is so much we can target for value and one of the Vs is likely a passive rec. I think with BU pro involved you could make an argument for checking some good Tx but QQ is too good. We unblock/get value from all the Tx and we get value from the draws.
What boats does he have? He shouldn't have any flipped two pair. Is he so tight he just overcalls TT preflop? If that's a squeeze then there's 66 and the one combination of 33. He shouldn't overcall flop with any 3x unless maybe A3cc. Sure it's a strong line and a bit odd for hearts, and yes you'd rather not have a heart yourself, but unless you think he has all TT then I'd probably call for this price. If all the TT are there then it's probably close
I would fold, as a human it's very counterintuitive to jam some kind of draw on the (paired) turn, instead of on the flop when they have more equity. So unless they are massively overplaying their Tx, you're just going to run into trips most of the time.
Would require a very specific type of opponent (range aware, able to attack spots where your range is capped) for me to make the call.
You could possibly include 9h8h and 8h7h in a buff range but generally you'd expect those combos to x-r on the flop. If villain is on the "nittier side", disregarding your small sample, I'd struggle to find many (if any) bluffs. Occasionally, a nitty-reg might blow-up and realise they can't call with a draw on the turn, can't bring themselves to fold and just go for it (but generally would do so against an opponent who they perceive to be out of line, which doesn't sound like Hero here, although table has been "splashy"). Another question is what does V do with nut-flush combos? They could also be placed in the shove or fold bucket, especially if he has two overs, as with AhJh. The Qh and Th do block a number of heart broadway combos, too, which does shift the needle more to a fold.
What keuwai wrote. Hand is played fine, now fold w/o some super read of this player at this moment.
So you have to defend like 55 to 60pc here I think. So it's closer. Maybe fold holding the heart?
I think you could have checked turn to avoid this
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I've been seeing this kind of comment a lot lately. Yeah, maybe, "you have to defend," a portion of your range if you playing against an opponent who will actually exploit you by overbluffing if you don't call enough. But I can almost guarantee you that is not what is happening. It is much more likely you're just getting underbluffed.
As for op's question, yes, people absolutely jam boats here. It's super greedy but it's smart. Because if the flush gets there they won't get called the money in as often, and since the flush has not got there yet, it looks more plausible that they have the flush draw.
I think because v just called the flop and there is a very slight chance they could be value owning themselves with AT or JJ along with a slight chance they could be semi bluffing, I very slightly lean towards call. But I think live reads could sway me against that also.
In real time I also thought there was a small chance they could be value owning themselves but it’s a pretty big jam for it to be AT or JJ, but still possible.
Result: hero calls and gets shown A3s
I think if I weren’t rusty I find the fold here but it seems pretty close. I only hate this call if people are jamming boats here at a decent frequency, otherwise it’s either fine or just kinda bad.