2/5; flopped top set on monotone board
I'm interested in opinions on this one.
2/5, eff stack around 800, hero covers
Unknown elderly recreational player open limps in MP, hero on BTN with 9s9c raises to 25, only villain calls.
Flop (50): 9d 5d 4d
V donks 30, hero raises to 80, villain calls.
- This is kind of the critical street in my view. I'm accustomed to seeing rec's donk monotone boards with strong non-flush hands that are afraid of seeing a diamond, or Ad x hands that want to set the price and maybe get a fold. If I get 3-bet I'll have to make a decision, but weak players often tend to give themselves away with sizing/timing tells in these kinds of spots
Turn (210): Jc
V checks, hero bets 200, V thinks a little and calls a bit uncomfortably (as I read it anyway)
River (610): Qs
V checks, hero ... ??
What do we want to do here? A little over 500 left
20 Replies
I think I check behind on the river, since I don't see him ever folding a flush or even a straight if he backed into KT with a diamond. The only hands that might call a bet are AJo/AQo with a diamond.
I think I check behind on the river, since I don't see him ever folding a flush or even a straight if he backed into KT with a diamond. The only hands that might call a bet are AJo/AQo with a diamond.
For whatever its worth I think we can also confidently include 55, 44, and 54s in his range.
Some recs and regs may donk with Ad and a pair (those who limp weak offsuit aces). An elderly rec is less likely to donk nfd and more likely donking to protect, though. I had a similar hand the other day where an elderly rec donked from the EP on JT2 monotone with JT (and I had 22). In this case, 54s is possible but seems less likely to be limped preflop than 44 or 55, which are 100% in his range.
I would also say the elderly recs tend to protect small made flushes as well, so 76 through suited-broadway diamond combos should be included. You would think he'd 3bet flop with many of these combos or x-r the turn. I wonder if it's possible to bet 200 on the river, even though theoretically this may be a bad idea IP. He's never turning a naked Ad into a bluff, so we only lose to a few combos of small flushes (he's rarely folding 44 or 55).
In the end, I wouldn't hate checking behind, even though it feels nitty.
I wouldn't raise flop when V bets 30 into 50. My rule of thumb when facing donks is I just call whenever the donk is around the same size or larger than my c-bet would have been if action checked to me. I think we can wait and see what he does on the turn.
If we get 3B on the flop by an unknown older rec, I think it's an easy fold. Just more reason not to raise his donk.
As played on flop, I think I'd bet smaller on turn, to cap his range a bit. I'd probably bet around half pot.
On the river, I think we've run out of value, after we bet so much on the turn. I'd just check it back.
If we jam here, we're basically turning our hand into a bluff. Maybe we can size way down to get value from his flopped 2P and lower sets, but it will suck to get check raised. I'm not even sure he calls flop and turn with 2P or a lower set. This seems like a flopped flush or a busted flush draw.
The flop raise just depends on what you expect his donk range to be - my guess is it's non made hands, single diamonds, etc so I think I like the raise. I would jam the river especially with your live reads on the turn - I really don't think he has a flush that often here, but with the Q and J he might make top pair+ with a diamond and call at some frequency. He could also have a low set on the flop - think there's value to be had here.
I like the hand as played, but I probably check back the river. He's rarely calling w/ worse and almost always calling w/ better.
Don't mind flop with top set, turn size is mid ... I'd rather go 100 or 300, but 200 is not the worst.
Would check back river without reads.
Villain shouldn't be donking here so we are already off the rails. In my experience, population's donk range is usually weak-mid strength hands trying to protect/see where they are at so raising is fine.
The turn changes nothing so we can size up.
As played, otr we can bet small imo but jamming may be too large. Checking back seems counterintuitive if we raised otf thinking villain was weak/mid.
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I'm not b/f'ing the river, especially when lower sets are in his range and since the 4th flush card didn't come so I would check it back just to be safe. This could be a small flush too which is why he would be reluctant to call the raise.
I would flat call flop and as played check river.
Check turn and bet river if checked to. You can let him tell you if he has the flush, and you also can see if a fourth diamond comes or the board pairs. At minimum your turn bet shouldve been smaller, maybe even under half pot like $85.
As played I think you can value bet small like 150 and fold to a jam since itll almost never be worse. It wont be a ton of value but i think itd be net positive.
all of it, sir!
I dont like your sizings. I would raise flop way bigger. 120 or so, he bet 30 into 50 and you make it 50 more...he's getting 16:5 or better than 3:1. Donks at my game are usually mid-made hands like A9o, KdXo, AdXo, 54o.
AP turn range is so wide is a single diamond calling a PSB? Now you're giving him 2:1 while he has maybe 4:1 against. I'd probably bet small like 1/3rd.
River I'm checking back. He has a lot of made flushes now that he's called flop and turn.
I think villains most likely holdings are small sets, 54 two pair, 9x with a diamond. Given the limp call pre flop. He has a flush and Arag flush some % of the time, but not as much considering he will often raise this on the flop or the turn to protect. You can bet fold $200-250 on river, he will call with baby flush and jam with A high flush, so your decision is easy.
Results:
Spoiler
So I sort of just went with my read that he was weak and (too quickly) thought flushes were unlikely and jammed.
He tanked for like 30 seconds and hemmed and hawed and then called with K6dd
lol, severly misjudged my opponent on this one
Funny thing, if I'm V, I might have found a fold. Your line looks super-strong. But I wouldn't expect some rando rec-fish to fold a flush here, unless it's like 32dd, 76dd, or 63dd that was hanging on, hoping to improve to the straight flush.
I‘ve just bookmarked this thread for a more detailed read later.
In my last session, the table next to mine has a huge pot, 3-way all-in on a monotone flop. One has sets, two others have flushes. Brutal.
IMO, this is way overplayed. I would have checked each street as played.
Funny thing, if I'm V, I might have found a fold. Your line looks super-strong. But I wouldn't expect some rando rec-fish to fold a flush here, unless it's like 32dd, 76dd, or 63dd that was hanging on, hoping to improve to the straight flush.
Yeah, I mean monotone boards are weird because people tend to respond to them idiosyncratically. In general people play more passively than theory when a flush is possible (monotone flops, flush completing turns), and also tend to be less willing to stack off with TPTK through sets against a range with possible flushes (sometimes "correct" but often not)
On the other hand people sometimes get sticky, convinced your're betting/calling with a naked Ad or whatever.
From V's perspective it's arguably harder — some people play any flush like the nuts, some start to just want to get to showdown on later streets, some people might triple barrell with an overpair or better depending.
I think the ideal response for any of these kinds of spots is more than usually dependent on your sense of how villain plays, and potentially what he expects hero's betting range to be.
The fact he’s tanking with the second nuts probably means we should check back river as he’s not calling with worse.