Missed Value on the River vs. Top Reg?

I’m not really sure how much value you missed. Against a really good player, you have to make your hand look like AK or AQ or else he may find a big laydown. Would you bet a lot with those hands or would you be worried about value owning yourself?

idk i don't think you're taking multiway into account either sizing or hand reading wise. is weird to say but i think if u bet large otr (given the line so far) u are bordering on overplaying your hand

What do you mean im overplaying my hand on the river? I have a straight and he doesn't have many flushes on his range. Even if he did have a flush, the best one (rare) could be Kx and maybeeeee exactly Q9s. The rest are low flushes that would not raise river. I think I should have gone much bigger on the river but I levelled myself on blocking

i don't think you missed much value here, you need to fold to any reraises here and the more you size up on the river the greater the likelihood that he either folds or turns his hand into a bluff

what he needs to defend is a function of your bet sizing. if you bet big enough you can push him into a range where he calls w KQ+ (see how this is bad for you when you have kq?)

this is a hu sim co vs btn where co goes 125% otf, 2/3 ott and goes large otr and look how ip is supposed to react. esp vs 2 regs you are making the pot too big for your hand imo to go for 3 large bets. yes you bet half otf here, but you're betting into 2 that splits the mdf. given your hand is vs 2 presumably good midstakes regs, this actually matters here quite a bit

i dont really understand the comment about the best flushes he could have or him not being able to raise the river. you lose to every flush

would not be surprised if flop ends up a x vs 2 without a club. am basing that on 100bb sim where it bets 33% otf w ur hand about 20% and xs the rest, and a 150bb sim where it pure xs without a club. and that's without including the sb as well.

While flushes are possible, he doesn’t have many combos due to blockers

If he is "GTO-studied," he likely has a handful of lower suited-connectors in addition to K9s down to K6s, along with a sprinkling of other flushes.

Think you should be going much larger on textures like this - there's major value to be had when you have the straight and they have 2pr/top pair and nut draw/etc. Don't like block betting the river - better players will raise you, two pair hands get off cheaply,etc. Maybe he bluff raises you with a pair + club draw, but decided to call in the rare circumstance you have a club bluff.

without nut flush, he's still not very comfortable playing a big pot here as hero could easily have a better flush

I think in theory we're supposed to size down on monotone flops, so I probably would have c-bet smaller, around 1/3 pot, maybe even a little less. I think we want to give him a reason to raise off with his flushes.

If we c-bet the flop smaller, and he called, I probably would have bet small again on the brick turn, to give him another chance to raise with his thick value. Here, we're basically making it easy for him to play perfectly by betting >1/2 pot on flop and 2/3 pot on turn. He can just flat call with all his strong hands and fold the rest.

River, if he's aggressive and / or capable of betting with thin value, I might check to induce, hoping it looks like we were drawing and missed, or got scared with our modest showdown value. But I like betting small on flop and turn, and then betting 1.5x pot on the river better than going 1/2, 2/3, 1/5.

I don't like betting big-big-small (is this to induce a raise?) with a straight on a monotone board in a wide-vs-wide configuration where V could have a ton of flushes, but probably not the nut flush.

Like, I'm not expecting V to lay down any of his low flushes to this bet size, and I don't really want him to think we're weak and will fold to a raise if he's just got KcXx. I'd rather go small-small-big to target his non-believing 2P for value.

Just read the rest of the comments. Agree with submersible that this line looks like over-playing our hand.

The large bet sizings on flop and turn force V to continue with a much stronger range. I wouldn't expect V to show up on the river with too many hands worse than 2P, and I don't think he's folding very many if any flushes when we take this line.

Hero's in the CO. BTN could be calling the raise pretty wide, with a fair amount of KXcc, even though most of those combos are pretty trashy. Q9cc and Q8cc aren't out of the question.

Even if we take the trashiest KX and Q8 out of his range, he still has a boat load of SC's that may have flopped it, and aren't going to fold unless we take geometric sizing leading to a river jam.

On the other hand, if you bet smaller on flop and turn, V shows up on the river with a lot more 1P and 2P, and a lot fewer flushes, so we can size up on the river for value, knowing our straight is ahead of most of V's range.

You are actually right. I should have forced a weaker calling range with small sizings on the flop and turn.

I'm curious of how i could ever bet 125% on the flop, never thought of that line.

If I replay the hand I would go 1/3 flop, 1/3 turn and then 100-150% river and fold to a raise

no i wouldnt bet 125% otf unless it was some absurd explo reason and would never do it with your hand regardless lol. my point was to show u the implications of you betting this size into 2 people who understand theory - when u bet half into 2, each person needs to defend like they're facing a psb because the burden of mdf is split.

I understand the board blocks a lot of big flushes ... but that also applies to hero.
We are super deep and can be drawing dead, would 100% check flop with this hand. If I bet, I'd bet less.

I understand turn is a brick, but betting big again seems pretty bad, AIUI you should be checking or betting small a lot more with this hand on a monotone flop. If I checked flop I might bet 60% on turn.

Any bet on the river feels dangerous, esp. given what you've said of V. I think he can have a few flushes and turn even JT into a bluff here.
I feel like V has very few sets, maybe all the two pairs AJ/AT/JT, "bad" flushes and some xKc and maybe some xQc combos. Feels like by betting you are losing piles to flushes and KcJx.
Also wtf range are you checking? Does JT just get an auto value bet on the river if you check?
It is small though and I guess V had the bad/misleading thought of "eh, maybe I'm good vs. xKc/xQc often enough."

So I think there is a clear consensous that the play should be as follows: 1/3 flop, 1/3 turn. The river can be between 80-120% pot and fold if raised

But will the larger river bet be called by the larger part of his range that we are ahead of?

Yea I wanted to say this. I'm as wide as Q9cc here (I raise KXs pre more), and of course all the 67s 45s etc etc. Im expecting H to get raised a ton by QcTx KcTx type hands here so I actually would have bet larger across the streets just to comfortably fold to a raise.

Flop too big (if you bet at all).

Turn is fine I guess. (I would go bigger in game, but that might be wrong).

River is close between a bigger bet for value or a check. You're kinda doing him a favor blocking a big bet when your hand fully unblock all bluff catchers and bluffs and your range contains all the nuts. Blocking bet makes more sense with AJ type hands.

It depends. From V's perspective, if we had a flush, we might have bet bigger on earlier streets. If we go small-small on flop and turn, and V is hanging out on with 2P, he may feel compelled to call a big river bet because he's at the top of his range, and hero's line looks polarized to a flush or nothing.

Missed a little value, unless you were trying to induce a bluff on the river (but then are you calling a shove?)

Half pot flop, pot turn and then pot river (with +/-10% on each street) would have been the lines I take..

If V calls the turn bet then they’re calling pretty much any brick river and if they show up with a weak flush every now and then so be it