AA facing terrible runout vs house LAG, get out earlier?

I guess he 3! JJ pre. TT too, but maybe not always. Maybe 99 sometimes. If I button straddled in a game much smaller than normal, I'd be mostly 3! all of those. I think a lot of his single paired Ts or 9s would check the flop. It makes sense to bet 2 pair. J9 checks turn so it's T9 or JT.

I don't think his line makes that much sense with turned boats or quads. The ten on the turn isn't that scary for you. He wants to bet the turn big and build the pot and lower spr.

A Q or maybe an 8 make some sense as bluffs. Would he ever turn his worst jacks into bluffs? You also look fairly weak here. You attacked the straddle and have done nothing but check call. You probably wouldn't check call 2P+ on such an action flop. You could have Qt-At. But those would often lead or CR at some point.

Anyway, I would call.

Against this guy we print by calling all our bluff catchers.

shooting form the hip here so an be wildly off base: i think this board sucks when you have AA given preflop action in most scenarios but the thing that sticks out is most of the hands villain would hold that hit this board for a nutted hand {KQ, JJ, TT, 99, JTs} would probably 3bet you pre given villain description no? also given villain description i could easily see a case for a somewhat wider 3bet range here too for {J9s, T9}

this isnt to say there arent still a lot of value hands villain has here that felt your AA - Tx hands 9x hands etc etc

Basically - it becomes more clear once you can properly assess the # of Tx and 9x combos villain will flat button with and strong sense of 3! range preflop that removes some of those combos.

but if villain IS taking this line w/ 100% of their 9x or Tx this is a big error on their part especially if they dont diverge when deep. You should easily be able to get more than your share of value and at some point push the envelope with bluffs as well once you've established you'll take a ch/call for 1, 2, or 3 streets w/ top of your range on that runout.

feels like one of those spots where folding AA but calling w/ KK or QQ because of blockers to KQ becomes a thought to entertain at least but heavily dependent on frequency of villain taking a line like this in similar situations.

I'm on the fence though as far as the fold unless i can get clearer depiction of above range assignments. Seems like vs most of the 1/3 player pool its a fold but against more aggressive players we can whittle away enough of the range that gets to the river via exclusion of hands that would close to 100% of the time 3! pre.

What is this guy trying to rep? What are the value hands that want to 1.5x the river apart from 99 (one combo) and maybe JTs (one combo) that is trying to cooler the hell out of Tx and 9x? It's a weird line with any other Tx or 9x hand.

I think I would call given the reads you provided and prepare myself to either (1.) lose a big pot or (2.) get yelled at by an entitled dick.

Doesn't sound like a very good table table?

We also don't seem to be in the best mindset. We should really just be attempting to play as well as we can / play the next hand to the best of our ability, not really "trying to come back" from currently being stuck a BI.

Obviously I limp in but that's me.

Not a great result being OOP to good pro LAG in a SPR 10 pot. I really don't want to play for stacks at this SPR, and this flop kinda sucks. So I'd lean to checking the flop, mostly attempting to get to showdown for cheap / otherwise inducing this guy to bluff.

With this in mind, I'm fine with turn.

The river is why I'm simply not a fan of preflop (or even pre preflop). Are we really setting up profitable situations from the get go? I'm fine with the fold, but obviously we're folding the best hand in a decent pot a heckuva lot too.

ETA: For someone reason I though you bet the flop. Knowing that we've weakly checked/called both the flop and turn (which I'm completely fine with) does want to make me want to call the river more against this guy (although obviously we do walk into it sometimes).

Gstep1:putourselvesintoaprofitablesituation;step2:profit,imoG

pre situation means this is one of the cases where x range oop isn't really the right play. you prob have 14?% of hands and he probably has close to 50

river looks like a fold to me

as an aside but what do you hope to get by posting hands vs good regs u dont have (m)any reads on to a forum that refuses to look at software instead of solving them?

i think he maybe bluffs it off w qxss and maybe 8xss and it looks pretty easy to overdo it on those if hes as loose pre as i think he is but idk. i think good people give up fairly often (possibly always) on this runout. the history hand he bluffed with to me looks like a good combo and board to run it on (and a wild call by red qq no s) whereas this does not.

quick question: what % of players who sit 1/3 - 2/5 and maybe 5/10 do you feel in your experience play anything close to what a solver would assume the designated opponents actions are?

and then of that %, what share of our win rate is derived form that player pool?

and then how much on average is access to a solver that lets you adjust preflop ranges up to 300bb's as well as lock decision tree nodes for designated villains when running a solution?

i ask this sincerely but in my head the cost to value ratio just isnt there especially if the entirety of your game is deriving profit from bad players and not good ones. and then furthermore, deviating from a strategy that focuses on achieving a net 0 loss, not profit, seems to be a time cost not a lot of folks have considering the above as well.

I dont think GTO strategy should be ignored or cast aside - i think proper foundational strategy knowledge allows you to deviate and exploit better but your statement, if it isnt more hyperbolic for purposes of being incendiary pretty much ignores a lot of the things mentioned above that I think most might prioritize as more important.

though i am genuinely curious what a solver given range assumptions for villain as described indicates as optimal flop play here. in my limited experience i still thought x'ing would be done with some mid to higher frequency n an oversimplification given board but now im less certain.

i know of a free solver that lets you input ranges and its somewhat possible to lock decision points but i dont know how robust its results are compared to the commerically available ones.

villain is described as a pro that plays up to 25/50 lol. the whole thread is just saying pure call bluff catchers because of the way the history hand was framed in op (and no real process to solve hands), but if villain is actually good at poker u are probably going to get rocked doing that. if u look at an analagous sim (not great but try gtow straddle + ante and look at sb vs straddle 75 straddles to mimic the spr) we end up pure folding 87 / q8 and are indiffernet w KQ otr - and thats with the assumption that oop is leading the turn 45%.

so like my takeaway would be ok this hand is probably a fold at equilibrium, this is a fairly bad runout for ip to bluff (oop must have sdv to call the turn, board doesn't change, oop probably has a good amount of tx at bare minimum and his entire range can think about calling the river, board pair rivers are underfolded in general) added to OP is clicky in general and stuck, v is good at poker and just got caught bluffing it off). i just dont see much reason to overcall here lol

so i did fiddle with a solver a bit. the one i have access to is free but its pretty basic as far as functionality but if i did it properly, flop should be a lead here and not a check. I'm actually really surprised given that while our range has nut advantage (we always have KQ, JJ, TT, 99 villain has Q8 for a straight but frequency wise i imagine KQ, JJ, TT, 99 much closer to bottom of frequency) we lack overall connectivity for the most part - villain should have more Tx and 9x hands.

I even did a trial where I locked in hero's actions on each street and if hero can only check, x/r 3.5x and x/r shove and when SPR hits treshhold open shove as well as check, AA ch/calls to river and folds river.

However that only happens IF we limit hero's options. Once you give solver alternatives such as leading, AA doesnt get checked at all - in fact of the range i gave hero its just under 50% check i think? I shouldve taken a screen shot. but AA should be betting.

i'm gonna give another try with it later if i get the time/desire to sit and **** around with this specific hand some more and see what betting lines work the best.

While i do feel like people have a poor understanding as to WHAT exactly is getting "solved". I do wish there was a away to run things quicker like simplify hero's range down to 3-5 classes of hands in the bucket of "RFI in MP" (eg. premium pair, broadway SC, suited gapper, pure bullshit) as opposed to parsing thru complex "30% of the time do this with 1.5 combos of XxYy" type bullshit across the entire range.
If anyone else is curious:
https://wasm-postflop.pages.dev/

i dont know enough about computing to give any qualification of how robust it is compared to others but I can summarize it's benefits into 1 word for everyone: FREE

i did forget this guy was described as some anomaly who pretends to rough it with the peasants down at 1/3. It does make me wonder how winning-est a player they are - at some point I'd imaging it'd be painful to kick around in the nickel and dime game w/ the unwashed when you've clocked solid win rate at the altar next to the lord themself. (all metaphor/poetic)

that said - my hypothesis that folks misinterpret solver "solutions" or misapply them heavily still stands until evidence otherwise presented.

not to say this guy doesnt use it, doesnt play GTO. i guess you could try to convince me mf'er loves poker so much he is willing to sit the play money games 1/3 blinds just cuz POKER IS IN HIS GODDAMN VEINS or some **** but i digress

i think the most valuable solver or GTO related thing im seeing as highly applicable revolves around leading flop and how much and our response to any raise etc. villain has way too much in their range that crushes us and we have plenty of value that can call. i'd sooner fold AA, KK say QQ is the bottom i'd call with but fold KK/AA then move up from there to define some kind of MDF response say.

Why QQ and not AA/KK? QQ blocks more of villains possible straights and other value combos (Q8, QT, Q9) unfortunately it also blocks QJ but i think removing more from the stronger hands likely in villains range nets us more

MDF says it's a fold as surely you have kq thru JJ here yourself. So AA is one of if your weaker hands. Criticising pre flop is beyond stupid. Hand is well played imho.

Sent from my Mi 9T using Tapatalk

Besides gg, who has said about his preflop play?

played fine now fold river.

No one. Just GG . Raising with aces was obviously correct.

Sent from my Mi 9T using Tapatalk

GG hates using his brain while playing cards so his whole game is based on being mindless.

I call betting you're getting put on your exact hand.

Not the exact hand. You would play KK/AJ and some other hands that way.

He could be shoving any 9 or T for value, so it isn't so clear.

Don't know where you find these 1/3 tables with all good players.

Lol, GG always says limp. If you are going to post weird stuff, you need to explain it. I am fine with limping behind some hands in some situations. You could play for a limp/3! if a raise seems likely, but then opponents could really put you on your exact hand, and we are told there are no fish at the table.

I think life sucks, on almost every street. And I'm not sure how any responses are going to help much, even with hours in a solver I think it's going to be difficult to come to a good strat. here unless you are x/c KQ,JJ,JT,etc on the flop a decent amount (and then, like just fold this hand duh).

Vs. a solver I'd guess you should fold before river and if not then on the river ... preferring to call with hands that block more of the value range from solver-V. But I wouldn't bet a lot on that being true.

But vs. a human that doesn't care about the money and will overcall preflop and overbluff (esp. so on the river) ... eh.

First random guess is that you probably want to think about folding turn more, because it's pretty obvious he's going to shove all hands that beat us and probably a lot of bluffs on the river ... and he probably has more outs to improve than we do on the river (at best we have 2x A and 2x 9).

Next guess would be that having a spade is probably bad for our overpairs, because he's more likely to start betting/bluffing flop with AcJc than AsJs due to BDNFD. But even that kind of thinking is making a bunch of assumptions about his range pre. and flop that might be super far off.

So, let's stop "guessing" run some random numbers (still basically bad guesses, but looks more pro).
The two obvious variables for a toy river game are:

1. How much does he call preflop.
2. How much does he bluff river.

...so first off, not so much bluffing:

Putting V preflop range on the left, and our river equity on the right:

He shoves river with: any Q, any T, any 9, 87

pre 15%: 36%
pre 35%: 32%
pre 55%: 31%

Now widen his shove range: any Q, any J, any T, any 9, any 8

pre 15%: 57%
pre 35%: 48%
pre 55%: 52%

Now widen his shove range: any K, any Q, any J, any T, any 9, any 8

pre 15%: 63%
pre 35%: 58%
pre 55%: 64%

Now widen his shove range: any K, any Q, any J, any T, any 9, any 8, any 7

pre 15%: 66%
pre 35%: 61%
pre 55%: 66%

...now from what I can see QQ (with villain marked as not having KK) does about the same on the river as AA, but KK does much worse (as you can see from above we gain a lot of equity when V starts bluffing all Kx and we'll block that) ... also the suits don't matter in this toy game (I ran with H's specific cards and just general AA and they were basically identical -- but I assume that's because there's no filtering on flop for BDFD in the toy game, which may or may not be true of real life V).

So tl;dr

If V has a non-tight range pre. and doesn't bluff Kx (or random non-blocking cards like 55 or even lesser blocking 7x high) on the river, V gets to bluff a lot and you should still fold.

idk what's going on in the post above mine lol

i thought comments initially were ridiculous - op isn't even asking if he should fold the river but if he should fold earlier and eveyrone in the thread is telling him lol mid / high stakes reg is giga fish who is just blasting entire range here on every street, but i think its swinging to the other side. v can most definitely value bet worse hands ott given sizing scheme up until this point and should think he has fold equity vs all kinds of things in op's range to be able to bet the turn - AQ / AK primarily but maybe some 88 or random 9x stuff.

if the guy is good and u dunno much just look at it on gtow and get a feel for what u should do if u don't have an overwhelming reason to deviate - this is going to be what ur going to do vs most regs

this hand is a bit tricky only because btn straddle makes it a non standard situation in terms of range assymetries - usually when guy calls the button he has like 25-30% of the hands u do so u need to play carefully, here he has way more than u (potentially 3-400%) so its closer to a bvb situation except ur range is much stronger because you're opening 18% at most (probably this should get reduced given presence of btn straddle tbh) as opposed to 40-45

To answer OP, I am definitely not folding the turn. The river is read-dependent. It might be a call based on information he is LAG.

GG, please stop posting "I would limp, but that's just me" in every thread without providing an explanation. It is pretty standard to raise premium hands unless you have a good reason not to.

This is very villain dependant and you can't tell just from saying v is a lag. Generally if you have seen him overbet bluff rivers like this, especially when taking relatively small size on flop and turn then you should call. If you haven't seen him overbet bluff rivers like this then you should fold. It also helps to know if you have seen him take this line with value. This is a fold vs most players but maybe vs the villain described it could be a call. The thing is a lot of villains look like lags capable of bluffing, but their bet, bet, river overbet jam lines are super underbluffed.

Vs a v capable of blasting I could definitely see some bluffs here, missed straight draws. I guess a few hands do come in on the river like 98, Q9, K9, 97, or just random 9x. Kind of a weird size to take with bottom boat though. Turn size is kind of weird for Tx as well. Again, impossible to tell without more hand histories. Spot will either be very underbluffed or very overbluffed.

Tough spot.

Our range is uncapped, with all the over-pairs, and KQs, and JJ/TT, and V is blasting away like he just doesn't care. If V thinks you're tilting because you're down a buy-in, he'd be less likely to try to bluff you off an over-pair, I'd think.

It's interesting that he barrels on the turn, which he'd seem unlikely to do with J9, and more likely to do with JT or KQ, but those combos would be 3B pre by this V, I think, at least some of the time.

I think the hand was played fine until the river. Maybe some of the time we can find a check-raise on the flop if we think he's calling our raise pre super-wide, and we think he's likely to try to rep any board that would seem to hit his range more than ours. But other than check-raising on an earlier street, I don't know what we could do differently before the river.

Donking out with a block bet on the river is interesting. But I'd think that just folds out all his bluffs, and only gets called or raised by better hands.

I think it's a fold to his river jam, but I would be curious. If he has a boat or even a straight, what worse hands is he expecting to call, other than QQ+ that just can't find a fold?

To Mlark's point - I can be fairly LAG, and if I was V, I'd never be bluffing here, but I don't think I'd take this huge over-bet sizing. I probably just pot it or go slightly over pot.

Easy call-down given villain description.