2/3NL line check

Hi so how long have you played with him? Do you know what he donks out with? Has he ever done this before?

I don't like the jam, he doesn't seem to be going anywhere (after donking out pot in a 3 way hand) and if we miss the flush we can potentially get to SD cheaper without going broke. I know there's not much left but that's my general principal and depending on how strong we think he is (based on how well we know him) we can even fold to a jam otr.

Grunch:

If my maths are correct, our jam makes the pot $480, laying V around 2.35 to 1 on a call?

Doesn't seem like we have any fold equity here. Also seems like V is going to jam most, if not all rivers, and probably wouldn't be able to fold if he checks and we jam.

What sort of range are we giving V? Does he play 99-QQ as flat calls pre? Seems like I'm suddenly seeing a lot of low stakes rec-fish flatting raises pre with JJ and TT, then blasting off on any board with no over-cards to their pair.

I don't know. I don't hate the jam if we're never folding, and / or if we think he might check-fold the river with worse, or not pay us off if we make our hand. But if he's VPIP'ing as described, he could have all the 2P and sets on the flop, plus maybe occasionally some better 1P.

I think I'd prefer to just flat call, with these implied odds. Assuming all our outs are available and good (assuming V doesn't have a set), we've got 14 outs, so we've got around 28% equity going to the river, with 4.8 to 1 implied odds, which is enough to flat call. If V has a set, we've only got 8 outs (I think), and jamming is just a punt with around 16% equity.

So, I think the play from IP is to just flat call, and see what happens on the river.

Maybe about 2 orbits. 3am game in a casino where i recognize every reg. Saw him pay off river flush without realizing FDF came in. I'm assuming fish typically donk maybe top/middle pairs and maybe J9 QJ type hands. I decide to jam turn because there's only 50% pot remaining and I don't think I'm folding to too many rivers getting 3:1, and want to ensure he calls off now

I wasn't really thinking of FE since i mostly only have value on my mind and not trying to get a fish to fold 2p+ on turns. I believe I am giving him around 3:1 (205 to win 590)
I have villain pegged as a fish (VPIP100/clothing/indian(racist)/ saw him pay off a flush without realizing FDF came in). Maybe I should be putting that in the OP

I mostly wanted to see if there was any merit to jamming flop which would be around 1.5x pot, when theres a lot of value to be had and a lot of tricky turns. I jam turn because hes likely never folding and we now have decent equity in case we are behind

I agree a lot of fish and recs will flat big hands pre in live poker and then get aggressive post. He could for sure have 99-TT and sometimes JJ. But he was defending 100 so he should have all top pairs/middle pairs as played I think

Thanks

The pot was raked for $7 on the flop, I take it? I read your OP as the pot was $55 on the flop, and he over-bet donks for $65.

What sort of hand do you think that is? I'd usually read a smallish donk as a weakish TP, or a strongish 2nd pair, or a good draw. But when he over-bets the pot, I tend to start wondering if he slow-played 99-QQ pre, and is now betting big for value (QQ, JJ, TT, 88, 33, T8) or protection (99).

If we added $130 to the pot on the flop, the pot is $185 on the turn, not $175, so he's betting just over 1/2 pot when he goes $100, which seems odd after he over-bet the flop. Now I'd be wondering if he was FOS on the flop, and is starting to get concerned we have 99 beat, or if he's just milking us with 2P or a set, or if he's picked up a draw to go with his pair (or a pair to go with his draw), and just wants to get to showdown.

So there's $285 in the pot, and we jam for $305, making it $590 (my math was bad, obviously). He's getting almost 3:1 (2.87 to 1), and...are we hoping he calls with worse, or folds better?

Maybe 99 calls now that he's open-ended. Does worse Tx call? I don't know. Maybe JT. But if he has worse Tx, he's drawing to 2 to 7 outs, and might think he has 10 outs. If he understands outs and odds, he might fold worse Tx.

The thing is, if he has 2P+, we're drawing to 8 to 12 outs. If he has JJ or QQ, we have 14 outs. If he has T9, we have to fade 11 cards. If he just has 99, we have to fade 10 cards. If he donked with 97, he has 10 outs. If he has JT, we have to fade 7 outs. If he has QT or KT, he's got 2 outs.

Do we think he's calling our jam with 2 to 11 outs, somewhere between a 6% and 22% underdog? Should we be jamming, knowing we might need to hit one of our 8 to 14 outs, somewhere between a 16% and 28% underdog?

Even if he's just putting us on an over-pair, and thinks he has 14 outs, he might still fold, if he understands he's a 28% dog. He's not getting the right odds to call with any hand we have beat, even in the most optimistic scenario where he has 14 outs, when he's only beating our bluffs, and none of our value.

It seems like a way ahead / way behind spot, but we're hoping he calls with worse, knowing he might not, and also knowing he's never folding better. Even if he calls with worse, he's never drawing dead.

I don't know, man. I don't like jamming in spots like this, where V isn't always going to call with worse, and will always call with better. Jamming gives up our positional advantage.

I hate rewarding guys like this by paying them off with just TPTK. Maybe he's VPIP'ing 100, but is he over-bet donking and barreling with all his bluffs and worse value, or does he only play this way with his nutted hands?

That's why I mentioned fold equity. I don't think we're ever folding out better with our jam. So the jam only makes sense if he's calling with worse, and rarely folding. Even if he calls with 11 outs, he's still going to suck out often enough that I'd rather just call the turn and look to play some poker on the river.

If we were deeper, and could lay him worse odds on a call, I could see jamming here, because he might start folding out some better hands, and we're giving his worse hands with equity to improve a worse price to try and suck out.

If we call the $100 on the turn, there's a chance he gives up and checks the river, allowing us to check back or bet thin for value. We can also make our hand, and snap him off if he bets again, or go for value if he checks.

If we miss, and he jams the river, it's just an easy fold, and we save $205. Even if we're NOT going to fold to a jam, because we think he's got worse Tx or 99, that's fine. We can still see the river by just flatting, and then call (but I think I'd fold if he triple barrels here, unless we know he's bluff-happy).

I limp in.

SPR is just 6 thanks to preflop (albeit in position) which is a pretty gross SPR with TP and facing a massive flop bet. Guess we can't fold but we're already kinda getting into a commitment spot.

I guess with TPTK and the flush draw we're going to have to call the turn and then evaluate the river. I'm not really sure what the point of jamming is? Are expecting to get called by worse / fold better?

GcluelessNLnoobG

ok thanks so he's basically an unknown who likes to see flops. Donk bets can mean different things to different people, but in general when they do it for pot in a multiway hand it usually leans towards value, which is often more than TPTK so I would be thinking I would most likely need to hit my flush to win.

Re-looking at this, I think it was @garick who gave me this nugget of wisdom: "they don't BET with nothing, they CALL with nothing."

Fishy recs are likely to call down really light when we're driving the action. But they're not nearly as likely to be getting out of line when they're the ones driving the action.

I actually think it's fine depending on what he's shown down and what he's bet with, but three orbits isn't very much.