Line Check: Bluffed River on a Dry Run-Out with KQss in the HJ

In three days, I'll post results and also a second hand with V.

We've 47 straddles. Guessing that your stack was similar to others at the table besides V's? Otherwise, why not top-up or buy-in for more?

Being that short-stacked really handcuffs us. I like the idea of a 3!, but as shallow as we are, I dunno if the size needs to be a shove vs the 2.5x you used. If a shove gets through, that's 20% added to our stack.

AP, I want to shove turn with our new open-ender. Not sure that King high is going to be enough at showdown.

Edit: what did you perceive for V's river range? V's shown zero interest in the pot after the flop hit. Do you think there's enough Ace-rag in V's range that you have to bet river? Otherwise, you've checked this far, why not take your free showdown?

Weird betting 30% of your stack with 3! Making it bigger is weirder. Shoving seems weird too. Not sure what is best. You could flat call preflop.

You have like pot left. I would cbet smallish/fold or shove the flop. I don't like the check after representing aces preflop.

Turn, seems like an easy shove for pot with OESD and overs. Anything else seems really bad. Your pair outs are usually good, so you have decent equity if called. Check seems really weak/tight.

River bluff seems small. I wouldn't shove as you lose if you are called, but 1/3 pot looks weak.

In general, when you 3! at low stakes, I would generally cbet, as you are representing QQ+. 3! is aggressive for stakes, but rest of hand seems weak/tight.

I’m did consider betting the turn, but a shove seemed spewy and a small bet only would set up an awkward river. I’d rather see my outs for cheap. The advantage of a river bluff is that it costs less with no more streets.

Given my read, V has plenty of ace-rag and some medium and small pairs.

I don't see how it is spewy. You are shoving about pot, and you are like 32% against a pair if called. You should have good FE representing an overpair.

Once you 3-bet, you need to represent an overpair. You don't always want to 3-barrel if deep, but you only have pot left here.

PRE - I think our 3B is too small if we want folds, but I guess can't be terrible when we're starting out somewhat short stacked. I would think an aggro V would jump on that sizing as indicative of weakness (I would), and 4B with a wider range (I would). Against this sizing, he's likely to continue super-wide.

FLOP - In position as the PFR, I'd c-bet here for 1/3 pot, give or take. We've got two overs and a backdoor straight draw on a semi-connected board that isn't overly likely to hit V's range, so a range bet seems better than a check back.

TURN - As played on flop, the turn check when we pick up OESD seems weak. I think I'd bet small again, to induce raises from V's made hands, and fold out his un-paired overs and weak 1P holdings.

RIVER - I guess we're supposed to bet when the flop and turn check through and V checks again, but I have no idea what we'd be trying to rep. I think V calls our less than 1/3 pot bet with ace-high, and a lot of weak PP's. I might just check-back, and hope V somehow gets here with Q-high, like Q9.

I don't mind 3betting this hand pre-flop and then just giving up post-flop against an aggressive and sticky opponent. If that's the plan, just check back the river. The problem with your river bet is that I don't think Villain ever folds a worse hand. Maybe he folds A5s or A4s? But those hands might not even ISO pre-flop. I would expect that you get called here by AK high or any pair. AQ might call too.

You can't bet/fold the turn, once you bet 1/3 pot and get shoved on, you have too much equity to fold.

Bet/folding the flop and reevaluating the turn as played is fine. On this turn, if we bet like 1/3 pot on the flop, obviously shove the turn.

You are always getting called with this 3! size, so you can't 3! and then check back when you miss.

i think a 3 Bet strategy is difficult with this size stack. The 3 bet needs to be bigger, and it's difficult as you are pot committed to a 4 bet if you go any higher.

Agree with other comments. Bet 1/3 pot on flop.

The river is a desperation bet. What does V put you on? if you bet river it needs to be $100 plus, and even so, it looks very bluffy given the action.

Since he has checked and is aggressive it looks like he's trying to get to showdown. He may have 88, 99 or a good ace.

On the river he will call you with all pairs and A highs. A good aggressive LAG may even raise you here.

Yeah, good point.

So, jam turn. Really no good options for the river when we take this line on prior streets.

My main takeaway. If V calls hero's 3bet, and it's heads up, passive play is mostly bad. Thanks for keeping me honest and teaching me how to 3bet.

When you 3B off a shortish stack, and the original raiser doesn't 4B-jam, it's always interesting to wonder if that caps his range, or if he just doesn't have any 4B's, because he thinks he's trapping, or whatever.

I tend to think it's the former more than the latter (he's capping himself), especially if V seems competent enough to understand we're only starting off 47 straddles deep. If he actually had a really strong hand, he'd probably just 4B-jam.

When we 3B and V caps himself by flatting, it is important to play the rest of the hand like we have all the big PP's in our range, and consider how we'd play those hands on whatever flop comes out.

Almost regardless of the board texture, I think c-betting all but the most connected mid-range flops is mandatory. We can always slow down and check the turn if it looks like we're steering into the rocks.

Of course, all of these challenges can be avoided if we just flat call pre, instead of 3B'ing off our short stack, which I think is fine with KQs. It's a hand that plays well post-flop, probably even better in a SRP than a 3B pot.

I might just shove the flop for less than pot. You are about 25% against a pair. You are sometimes ahead and generally get ace-high and some other hands that are ahead to fold. It looks like you have AK/AQ when you do that, but there is so much in the pot, you kind of have to go for it. If you bet 1/3 pot and get shoved on, you are getting about 2.7-1, which is probably a close fold.

That is why you have to shove the T turn as played, you have equity and there is so much in the pot.

Cbetting 1/3 pot / fold and reevaluate if called is also possible.

In general, when you 3! leaving less than a psb behind HU, you mostly have to get the rest in representing a big pair or TPTK if an ace of king hits. The point of the 3! is to represent a big hand. At low stakes, 3!s are often a tight range. When you check the flop, you sort of give up on the story.

Results:

V called. Hero showed. V showed 88.

Did I have to show here? I always showed under the old rules--hero got called, hero shows first. It's a habit I might need to break.

See next post with hand 2 with V.

You can always try saying, "you're good" or "good call" and see if he'll just turn his cards over (I always do when I am in his shoes) but I wouldn't muck your hand until he shows, just in case something weird happens.

I always get annoyed when players get called and just sit there, though. It wastes everyone's time and makes you look a bit silly. It's obviously standard to show, so either speak up, show the bluff proudly, or just put your cards in the muck.

The small river bet could fold a lot of the weaker Ax hands but probably not any pair. And I think AK and AQ call.

We could try betting flop and see how that goes but J high boards are often problematic for overs. It just feels like the 3b size created an SPR that makes it hard to play these types of flops that are not bad for a raise/caller.

As for the showdown I would show the cards and get on with it. Either way they will know you bluffed but I think the "light" 3b might help your image.

My other takeaway is that, after the straddle and calls, hero's stack was effectively 47 BB. So preflop could be more like tournament poker, where GTO says: against a LJ open, hero with KQs in the HJ 3bets at 60 BB and calls at 40BB. I usually buy in for 335, which would have given me enough to 3bet pre, bet 1/3 on the flop, and have enough for an over-bet on the turn.

My bankroll has sputtered from 3,500 eighteen months ago to just 1,800 now. My wife encourages me to play poker but nixed my request to add 8K to my roll. Buying into a high-rake game for just 100 BB feels like a handicap. What are you going to do?

Unfortunately, you don't really have a roll to even play 1/2.

Could you pick up a temporary, second job in order to fatten your bankroll? Even just adding 5K would give you a much better cushion.

Yeah if you were a little shorter in this hand I think just 3bet jamming pre-flop would be a good play. It is an awkward stack depth with the straddle and the big raise pre-flop.

I spent a long time playing $1/$2 off a $2000 bankroll. I would buy-in for $200 usually. With the edges that are possible in live poker, it is fairly unlikely that you will go on a 10 buy-in downswing. But obviously it can happen.

There is an added level of variance to the games at MGM Springfield where you kind of need to hit a promotion every once in a while. Paying $3/hand in promo dollars and not getting any back for a long stretch is brutal.

Of course he knows it can happen. He's already lost 8 buy-ins. 😵

For someone who may already be struggling to get his footing, I can't imagine him playing close to his "A" game with the risk of ruin hanging over his shoulder.

if you're going to 3b pre with your stack size you should be trying to GII on any board. that means either shoving flop or betting flop small and shoving turn.

if you are uncomfortable GII with king high just cold call pre.

as played i have no idea why are you betting the river. id look you up here with AQ high.

Play low stakes. Play more TAG until you get your sea legs back.

Yeah, that is pretty much what I was saying. There is so much in the middle, you need to GII with overcards. OK, to bet flop and fold to a raise though.