TJs bluff 1/3/6 520eff

I find the fact a very loose player calls $100 pre flop and then your c-bet disturbing. Especially as from your description their initial limp says nothing about hand value. Seems likely that given your turn bet is under pot that you will get called too often but having 8 outs it is possible you might have enough fold equity. You have a limited read on V which means they should have enough information on you to also have a limited read; what do you think it is?

I don't know what the stack sizes are, but this looks like a bad situation.

3 bet OOP with a marginal hand to players who cannot fold.

Do you think V can fold any ace post flop? i doubt it.

I don’t like the 3! oop vs player(s) who don’t like to fold with a marginal hand.

I don’t hate the cbet on this board now that we are in this spot. Assuming villain raises AK pre, the turn jam seems okay as some fish will need to be told twice “I have it” to believe it. If he has A7, K7s or 77, we at least have 8 outs to improve. However, if this is the type of villain that won’t let go of any random Ax one pair hand, this play is terrible, the same if villain limps AK.

You need fold equity to make this profitable, but you have not said if villain has a fold button post. If you've never seen one I dont like it especially given in gerneral loose pre is more likely to be loose post.

Preflop seems like torching money at these stacks and table dynamics. Trivial fold for me.

Doubt I cbet 3ways.

Guess I can't hate on turn given we've picked up a draw and he can easily be calling the flop small bet extremely light (I don't ever expect an Ace to fold here for this price, but he's probably loose enough to have some 2nd/3rd pears or gutshots that can find a fold).

GcluelessNLnoobG

I don't like the 3! for nearly 20% of our stack, vs the 2 V's described. They're just not likely to fold. With a loose, but not aggressive, V1, I might just overcall if I wanted to play it.

Once flop comes AQ7r, and we 3!'d, I think we have to go with it, if we want to continue. Not 1/3 cbetting though, but some variety of a jam. Pot's 300-ish, we've 420 back. A x-jam looks promising, except that V2 only has 200 back, so any bet by them after our check totally commits them. Which would be annoying when we want them to fold. It also makes an open jam look sus.

Do we know just how sticky either V is?

FWIW, our preflop 3bet is for a massive ~1/3rd of V2's stack (we should never be 3betting light at this stack size, imo).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Yes stack sizes make this a terrible squeeze in hindsight. I think once i get to the AQ7 board, i’m not sure what’s a good sizing, though 1/4 seems better or xjamming as well.

Villains i don’t have much reads except villain 1 is a fish who limps (and apparently limp calls 100 pre).

I would jam the turn with the double gutshot.

Pre is likely just bad if V's aren't folding, yes JTs is pretty but likes position and can whiff where you just have J high. I don't mind a call, but wouldn't be shocked if it's borderline or even bad given the setup. But then V2 should be fold or shove here, specifically to punish this type of hand from you, and didn't (that likely just makes it less bad though).

Flop the suits matter ... I understand you have a lot of range advantage going on and J high and a gutter, but you still don't get to range bet OOP for a third pot into two people. Assuming you have BDFD, I don't mind a bet although I think I'd bet less ... you want to cause max pain when they have like 88 or 87s, because I doubt anyone is folding Ax or probably a good Q. Also stack sizes mean even a third pot is a lot and V2 should again be shoving or folding. If you think they'll overcall a smaller bet then you can check too.

Assuming you had BDFD on the flop, saying "next best card to a K" is a weak excuse ... any BDFD gives a lot more outs, and I'm not sure you should blast off with minimal fold equity on any 9 or 8. Also vs. random A5s (about the main good hand you might get a fold from) any J or T gives you more equity than a 9 or 8 without the BDFD (J/T hit is still less equity than you had on flop though).

Shove, get snap called and bink the nuts on the river is the obvious play ... but over 80% of the time check is probably better.

It's a shove, and you 3!, so can have AA/QQ/AK/AQ. You should have some FE. You are OOP and you would have to x/f, which I don't like with your equity and the pot odds.

Not thrilled with pre-flop, but now that we are here, I like the jam vs. V1.

Pre - I guess if you are willing to gii for $300 with this hand vs. V2 it's OK, but why? I can't believe he flatted w/ $200 behind. Gross.

It would also be nice to know what they think of you.

I agree with not 3betting pre. Effective stacks are less than 100 bb's with the straddle (and even if we were deeper it's still not a slam dunk 3bet).

As played, jam is fine/standard (especially when we start to go down this type of aggressive line preflop).

Grunch:

PRE - 3B'ing JTs when OOP and we can probably see a flop by just flatting seems a little out of line, but whatever.

FLOP - The pot is already absurdly large for the strength of our hand. How deep are we here? V2 only has 200 behind? I mean...just check, or jam all in as a bluff for max fold equity. Betting $90 into $300 and leaving this guy $100 back seems like lighting money on fire.

TURN - I mean...it is the best card that's not a K, so jamming for max fold equity seems logical. I'm just not sure we actually have any fold equity at this SPR, and if not, then I don't mind checking, letting V1 or V2 bet, then jamming, because we want to win the max if we actually do make our hand.

It's kind of a disaster if we jam, V1 folds, and V2 calls for less. It's better if V1 takes the betting lead after we check, bets enough to put V2 all in, V2 calls, then we come along and re-jam for the rest of our stack, knowing V1 really can't fold no matter what he's holding, unless it's pure dust.

I mean, since we're already gambling, we might as well make the play that leads to the biggest pot, in case we manage to win.

As played a guess part of the question is what hands do you know v1 raises pre? And limp then call 3b? Sometimes this will eliminate some hands like AQ, other times it won't. Sometimes this can still be hands like JTo. Postflop it also matters if v is capable of ever folding a hand like A2.

Getting here like this I think I lean towards jamming. We have 17.4% equity, so if villain folds 22% of the time we are profiting, and in addition to some A rag hands he might fold, he could also have Qx, 7x, KJ, KT, or JT himself. It's one of those situations where the bluff can fail most of the time and still be profitable as long as you fold out 22% of his range.

On the flop, I think we could size down even smaller like 75. We hit the nuts on 4 cards, 8 cards give us an 8 out straight draw, and if we have a bdfd 7 cards give us a 12 out draw, 2 give us a 15 out draw. We also improve on a J or T. I don't love bluffing multiway OOP, but a small bet doesn't have to get folds too often to be profitable. Also, at this spr, our hand doesn't function really well as a check call or check raise. If we bet and fold to a raise, we didn't get pushed of a to of equity either.

Preflop: Is there/what is the rake? What positions were villains, and are villains at all positionally aware? I think with rake fold pre, and probably fold without rake too.
We're not getting a great price to call, and we invite along not only the limper but potentially BB and straddle, all who we will be OOP to. I don't perceive we have a lot of fold equity and at this spr not a lot of postflop playability, esp from oop, so I don't love 3betting.

Not sure which of us is drunkest ...

So we have 17.4% of the current pot of $486 = $84.56
But if we can put another $330 into the pot, for -$272.58 when he calls.

Assuming he checks 100% and we always realize:

(401.44*.22) - (272.58*.78)
shove = -124.2956

...now we could assume he _always_ shoves when we check, so our check equity is $0 meaning:

(486*.22) - (188.02*.78)
shove = -39.7356

...to actually be +$0.70 per shove he needs to fold 28% and also shove 100% of the time we check:

(486*.28) - (188.02*.72)
shove = +0.7056

...obviously as he checks more that goes up, and if he checks 100% we need him to fold 41% of the time.

I used this calculator to come up with the break even fold percentage:

https://redchippoker.com/fold-equity-cal...

I am tired right now so I'm not going to try to understand the math you did, but I will walk you through the math I did to see how this fold equity calculation checks out.
Looking purely at if we shove, not looking at what our EV is when we check:

If he folds 22% of the time, we win 486 22% of the time.

If he calls the other 78% of the time, of that 78% of the time, we win 816 17.4% of the time and lose 330 82.6% of the time.

The math for the EV is:

.22*486+.88[(.174*816)‐(.826*330)]= 5.05

So a shove of 330 would have an ev of 5.05 if he folds 22% of the time. Just for fun, if he folds 30% of the time our EV jumps up to $54.38. Where exactly our actual fold equity lies, IDK.

Yeh, worked it out ... we get 17.4% of our $330 and their $330 (so -215.16 when called), plus the $84.56 equity we have in the pot if he's always shoving meaning it's only -130.6.

Seemed wrong that we need so little fold equity when we have so little equity in the pot and 66% of pot behind, but that's life.