Absurd flop spot with second nuts and a potential sidepot

Sorry, math is wrong in the OP. I double-counted the $12 cbet. We started the hand with $485, raised $10 and called a $60 xr, so we have $415 in our stack at the decision point.

I would bet more otf but as played since we started with just over 100 bb's I would just jam. If the button has a NF, there's not much more we could of done. He can also have sets, two pair or even AsKx/AsXx.

The only way we can fold is if we really trust the live read is always AsXs, as even if we lose the main we are always a favorite to win the sidepot, and often a large favorite.

Assuming the Button has you beat, we're trying to figure out if you have enough equity in the side pot to make it worth your while.

I have for the main pot: 242 from BU, H, LJ, and 22 from BB. 748 total.

For the side pot, I have an additional (485-242) or 243 each for H and LJ, should LJ call. Total 486. We need LJ to call here, or our jam just makes BU richer. If LJ would call our jam, then we are donating (415 - 243) = 172 to BU for the opportunity to win LJ's additional 243. We need to win LJ's 243, 172/243 = 70.78% of the time for this to be EV neutral.

LJ could be LOL overvaluing a worse flush, like 86ss. Even if LJ has 77-55, (I'm assuming KK is off the table) H still is a 65.5% favorite by purely stoving it, and still a 63.8% taking into account BU's card removal. We need about 7% more equity in the side pot. 2 worse flush combos like 86, 64 get us there.

Alternatively, if H just calls, is LJ special enough to try and shove into a dry side pot on the turn? Assuming turn bricks.

Of course Button could have something besides the nut flush. Maybe LJ has it?

The subject line is accurate. This spot is a bit absurd.

PRE - given the reads and table dynamics, I think I'd start flatting more with speculative hands like QTs, and raising bigger with our stronger combos.

Yes, this is insanely exploitable, but if the rest of the table isn't going to punish us, it's also wildly profitable.

FLOP - With only one player left to act, I guess we have to bet. Think I'd just bet $10, not that it makes much difference if you bet $12.

The Hollywooding the BTN does is almost certainly a made hand, or at worst, the As planning to get it in with such a monster draw. Maybe he thinks the 3rd nuts is nutted enough, but if he doesn't have a 3B range pre, he could easily have AXss in his range, and we're behind.

The problem here is that if the BTN does NOT have us beat, but LJ does, we're going to lose our stack. And I'm not sure the LJ doesn't have us beat when he check-raises the flop, and then calls off the BTN jam.

I mean, just look at the action - raise pre, three calls, monotone flop goes check-check-bet-call-call-check raise-call-back jam-fold-call.

When the LJ limp-3B us pre, he showed KK. When he 4B, he probably had AA/KK. Maybe he's VPIP'ing 100%, but when he puts in a lot of money, he tends to have it, right?

If the LJ was drawing, or had the 3rd nuts, we might expect him to just get it in, rather than flat call. His flat call looks super-nutted, so I think I'd just fold.

Suppose we flat call, and LJ jams turn on a brick. Are we ever folding?

I think the BTN did us a huge favor by back-jamming. We can get away from this hand for $70. Think I just fold, and expect to see LJ scoop.

Thanks, this is the math breakdown that I was hoping that someone would be able to provide.

My read on LJ is that he will show up in this spot with LOTS of worse flushes. The two hands you mentioned, both of which have an OESFD, will probably never fold, especially given they have equity for the $150k BBJ. If he has a set, I think he probably needs to fold given that he can easily be up against KK and a flush and will be dead to one out? But he may level himself into calling believing that he is up against two flushes. Not sure if he is calling something like J9ss or 98ss, though...

There is also always a chance that my read on button is incorrect and we are ahead of his worse flush, in which case it would be incredible for LJ to donate his $220 and then fold 55, locking up the whole pot for us.

Feel like I need to add this...

I pay A LOT of attention to my opponents at the table. Don't want to brag, but I'm VERY good at reading people. When a player described like BTN Hollywoods, then shrug-calls, I agree we need to be on high alert.

When he calls our bet, then back-jams, it's insanely strong, because at his stack depth, there's just no fold equity. Opponents like him just never push their stack in without the nuts, or a high equity draw to it. MAYBE I can see him shrug-jamming with a worse hand, because he only started out with $242, but still - that's 121bb's.

The absolute best case here is that one of our opponents just has the naked As, and the other has a worse hand. But even in that scenario, one of our opponents is going to make a better hand sometimes, and when we're behind the BTN, we need the LJ to call off our jam for the jam to just be EV *neutral*.

If the LJ has us beat, our jam is just torching. If the LJ doesn't call with a worse hand, our jam is just torching. This doesn't even get into the situations where someone has the nut flush and someone else has a set that can boat up, or one has the NF and the other the 3rd nuts, and we're drawing stone dead.

Scenario 1 - opponents have AsXx, and J9ss - we have 75% equity.

Scenario 2 - opponents have AsXx, and 77 - we have 44.7% equity.

Scenario 3 - opponents have AXss and 77 - we have 0.1% equity (I guess we can go runner-runner straight flush).

Scenario 4 - opponents have AXss and JXss - we're drawing stone dead.

We have around 30% equity on average (I'm not going to count all the goddam combos, GTFOH). In a lot of scenarios, we lose $242 to the BTN and win $243 from the LJ, so we make $1. In about as many scenarios, we get stacked.

How is this even a difficult decision? Seems like a pretty trivial fold to me (now that I've said that, I fully expect to learn hero called and scooped, because I'm an idiot).

As for this:

This is actually something I'd be worried about. Let's put ourselves in the LJ's position, with the nuts. Once hero flats, if my maths are right, he'll have $243 left, and the pot will be a bazillion dollars, with infinite odds. How can hero ever fold if LJ jams a brick turn?

For that exact reason, if I'm LJ and flopped the nuts, I would just flat call the BTN's jam, and be praying to the poker gods that hero calls or jams, I don't care which, because I know if he calls rather than jamming it's all going in on the turn, as long as the turn doesn't pair the board or come another spade.

And God forbid the turn DOES pair the board, or come another spade, then what does hero do after flatting the flop, and LJ jams. I guess fold?

Honestly, once we see the BTN Hollywood-call, I think we can fold to LJ's check-raise, fully expecting BTN to jam. We could have gotten away from this for $22.

Or even just making a normal raise for a 1-2 fish tank over a terrible limper? I can't imagine raising to less than $15 here, since I don't want to play this multiway, either raised or unraised.

Raising larger could have easily avoided this cluster****.

If we are so sure than BTN has the nuts that we can fold to LJ's initial check-raise, then why are we still considering scenarios where LJ is ahead? We should basically always have him crushed.

Also, not sure if this is the correct way of thinking of the math, but as played, we are losing $70 to the button regardless of how we proceed at the decision point, so the choice is whether to jam $415 to win a potential pot of $486, no? If we are always ahead of LJ and often have him drawing dead, the question is how often he will call the additional $243.

I am definitely willing to believe that jamming here is a huge punt, but it's always funny to me when the first couple posts on one of these threads say "easy jam" and the next few say "easy fold" haha...

I'm not sure BTN has the nuts. Said in my first post, he has a made hand, or might have the As, and is just planning to get it in.

It's hard for us to be way ahead of both opponents here, given the action and reads. The best case scenario, we're ahead of both, but the more likely, if not most likely scenario is we're crushed by one, and I wouldn't rule out it's the LJ, given his stack depth, prior hand histories, and the fact that he called a 3B-jam after he check-raised and got called. It's certainly possible that we're drawing dead or close to it.

We have the second nuts. I can sometimes find a fold in a heads-up pot, depending on the action and my reads. But in a multi-way pot, facing this action, regardless of reads, it seems like a pretty trivial fold.

i think you have a better chance of getting LJ to put in money w a worse hand if you just call tbh (although id imagine he folds a set 0% of the time so maybe jam is better)

i also think the hand is just slightly too strong to fold even though it looks grim

All of this. The way OP is telling the story, BU has the nut flush. I believe it.

LJ is a twit, tremendously overvaluing either a draw, a set, or a worse flush. We already have the 2nd best flush here. We're not improving unless runner-runner SF.

So...I want LJ to shove here. I think H is dead to BU---coolers happen---but then we have to be ahead of LJ. Accordingly, assuming the board doesn't LOLPair, we want LJ to push, so we can actually make some $. I did say, gallows humor, that LJ could have the NF, but he sure isn't acting like it vs the BU, at least according to OP's reads. Calling this, then seeing if LJ spazzs out, is probably how we'll best be able to get their money in.

If LJ checks turn, do the 1/10th pot bet, and see if LJ goes nuts.

Results below:

That's a hard way to make $10-$15.

Nice hand.

To be clear folding would be -$72 ... so this is a ~45bb swing, which isn't nothing.
Not saying that it's a call on the flop, but the difference isn't 5bb and I'd find it more difficult to fold at the given point than anytime before ... and probably 50/50 on call/shove.

Things I'd try to concentrate on for the future:

1. Pre size is bad. $10 is almost always bad due to max rake. And the limper typically limp/calling J8s/etc. any2 and the BTN shrug calling any suited A we need to charge more ... or just limp too.

2. When all your mental alarms go off on BTN's action _DON'T JUST SHRUG CALL_ LJ's x/r. Yes, it's really gross to just bet/fold flopped 2nd nuts but your read is BTN always has something good and _someone else_ just reopened the action allowing BTN to get stacks in.

Thanks for the input on preflop sizing. To be honest, I started experimenting with some new open sizes during a recent downswing and was using $7 in this session, which led to the smaller iso size. I like $7 in theory (gets action from the Mohegan Sun nitfish, smaller 3b sizes when people do 3b, smaller pots in general OOP) but think I probably need to use a bigger iso size (I guess $12) because people in general and this guy in particular are not limping to limp fold. I never considered the rake aspect, but that makes a lot of sense as well.

Your second point is well taken and certainly something I wish I had at least considered. Trusting my reads (and overfolding to aggression in general) is something that I am def working on...

How is folding -$72?

After hero sees the BTN do the Hollywood-call on the flop, we could have folded to LJ's check-raise, expecting BTN to jam, and gotten away from this for $22 ($10 pre and $12 c-bet).

Yeah, okay, in that scenario, we lose $22, whereas OP somehow managed to profit $10 or $15 here, so it's not nothing. It's a $32-$35 swing, which I suppose isn't insignificant in a 1/2 game.

But he put his whole $485 stack at risk in a situation where it was all but impossible for him to be ahead of both opponents, and where he needed the opponent he was ahead of to be the one who had him covered, AND he needed that guy to call his re-jam, which doesn't seem all that likely, regardless of OP's read, given the action (check-bet-call-check raise-call-back jam-call-re-jam).

If LJ had the nuts, hero's re-jam is just torching. If LJ folds, hero's just torching by calling BTN's jam. So many things have to go hero's way, just for him to win $10-$15 while risking $485.

I agree, if playing well I'd want to think and fold after having put $22 in.

But OP asked what do do after he'd called the flop x/r to $60 and then BTN shoved. At that point when we fold it's a -$72 hand, and so is much more annoying to fold (at least it probably would be for me sitting at the table, even if drunk at home I might tell people that lots of people still don't shove NFD as much as you'd think so fold is probably still best).

You guys are crazy, seriously. Wanting to fold the second nuts to a c/r from a whale who's playing every hand and with whom you're 100 bb deeper than with this unknown (!) who you suspect of Hollywood calling the nuts, based on some sort of acting. Even if he does have the nuts (and please stop pretending we're all sure of this), it's basically a freeroll because of the whale, but any flopped flush could lead someone to a bit of Hollywooding here, since flopping a flush is hard and there's a whale in the hand who's dying to give away his money.

Textbook case of results oriented thinking if you ask me. Bunch of soulreaders from a distance.

How is it results oriented thinking when I said fold before the reveal?

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showp...

The reveal was pretty much what I expected. Even after the reveal, knowing OP somehow turned a profit of $10 or $15, I still don't like the call.

It would seem to be the opposite of results oriented thinking, given the result.

If OP had won the hand, this probably wouldn’t be a topic, so even without knowing the reveal, it's certainly possible to succumb to results-oriented thinking on 2+2. But okay, maybe MUBSy is a better term here.

You also said you weren't sure the button had the nuts, only that he had a made hand, but you still wanted to fold because the LJ could have the nuts. Isn't it blatantly obvious that LJ's range is just faaaar too wide to even consider folding? Yes, of course he can have the nuts, everybody can have the nuts. But someone who plays almost every hand, will definitely play every single suited hand, which means he can literally have every single flush here and I would expect him to raise all of them, and likely sets as well, maybe even two pair or the naked As. Regarding his flushes, I would sooner expect him to raise 42ss than AXss actually, because he doesn't want to see another spade kill his hand.

I'm certainly not saying I wanna do a happy dance, but folding the second nuts here would just be out of the question, for me at least. And I'm usually pretty eager to fold to aggression.