1/3 variance bad beats

It's a good thing this happened after you went on a long winning streak, this is exactly why we build bankrolls.

In the hand, slow playing on dry boards vs someone who bets aggressively is fine, even though if we raised him pre or post we might of won the hand, but that's just how it goes sometimes when we play cat and mouse. These things no matter how you play them can happen so it just needs to be accepted, then when they happen as long as you're properly bankrolled it shouldn't affect you as much.

true ended up losing my buy in for the night 500$ was running pretty awful flopped a straight tried to get value and end up stringing him along for 80$ just to have the river chop us. But I have been non stop reading watching videos and brushing up to see where my flaws are and what I can patch and I just am not feeling as confident at the table but I cant seem to stay away. I will most likely go on friday as per usual and see the same guys i've been draining who have been getting very lucky on me even when I am putting them on their hands... I just don't want to stray away from my normal game playing style because I know its been successful. However I also wonder if people have caught on to it. Only hands I really won that night were big bluffs where I put the villain on ak or kq board came 772 he bets 30 I made it 75$ he took a minute called turn comes an 8 basically a nothing card with the range I had him on and the long time he took to call the first 3bet I took a minute and then made it 90$ I told him i'll show for a dollar he says okay takes his time putting the cards in the muck I made sure they were in first before getting angled on and show a j10 off and he was after me the whole rest of the night. He basically went on tilt after so I was able to take the last 75 of his chips 30 minutes later with a flip 10s vs aq.

Welcome to the forum!

The way to deal with variance is to understand it's part of the game, and that's why we need a fairly significant bankroll or budget so that we can play our best without worrying about going broke.

FWIW, when you create posts in the future, please use punctuation and paragraph breaks, because I couldn't get through the rest of that wall of text.

My bad, I'll try to make it less of a text wall. I like your play style btw fond. Most of the moves I've read you making are the same as what I would do.

Paragraphs are your friend, keep that in mind for better responses.

Have you put in a significant number of hours at the game with a solid winrate where you can be sure this is just a little blip in the road (instead of an actual reflection of your game)?

Your previous 13 or 14 sessions you seem to be running like god's older better looking brother. In 868 sessions of 1/3 NL, my best winstreak is 15, and second best is 12. Also, to cash out an average of $1460 of profit per 10 hour session (these are just averages based on your numbers) is *absurd* (unless you think shipping 48 bb/hr is sustainable). Also pretty absurd to plan on shipping one big pot every ~half hour.

The remaining 75% of your post is a run-of-the-mill bad beat story (we don't do that here).

But, yes, poker can have lots of highs and lows, and the more you play the more you'll encounter both good times and bad times. If you have a good strategy and stick to it at all times, you'll do well in the long term; if not, you'll do poorly. If you're having second thoughts about the method you're using and how it will fare long term, then post some hands for feedback.

Ggoodluck,thisgameisn'talwayseasyG

I used to play live about 6 years ago maybe 7 hours per day whenever there was rain and I couldn't do construction sales. I stopped playing as much started doing 8 to 10 hour sessions online about a year ago. Not really a fan of online anymore always liked live better.

The numbers you asked about those were cash out's not profits so it varies on the buy in, but I used to have an amount of profit I wanted to leave with around $1000 to 1200 and just leave. I changed that to time instead because of some of the videos I've been watching basically saying this is when you should leave having a plan before you get there. So now I just put a clock on myself as to when to go unless I am running stupid hot, this way I don't burn out.

At the casino I play at its not absurd on a Friday or Saturday night to walk away with over 1k in profit over 5 to 10 hours. For the most part outside of the regulars there are a lot of soft tables for extraction and just try not to put yourself into a juggernaut match against the grinders. When I saw one or two big pots per hour I mean around 80/200$ pots not my whole stack I rarely am going to get it all in unless I have the nuts or do not want someone to draw on me effectively just taking it down for less.

goobled I forgot to mention we have players like Texas Mike come to our casino from time to time and donk off 8k at a 1/3 table just to play with their friends. Rivers in Des Plaines IL is super profitable bro you could never do this at the other casino (Grand Victoria or nit city as I like to think of it) I used to play at where I would be more then thrilled to walk out with 800$ for a 10 hour session.

Again, you're stating that you expect to win $1K over 5 to 10 hours, which is 33 bb/hr - 67 bb/hr. Is that something you even remotely won at over any stretch of significant hours in the past?

GtrollmetrereadinisoffthehookonthisoneG

Yes this is a typical amount that I like to leave with there is a lot of action at my casino especially with the addition of the button straddle, which I love and hate depending on whos sitting at the table.

I'm trying to be polite as I can about this, but I find it very hard to believe you are winning at that winrate over any significant amount time (since basically no one is). Without you answering the very simple question of what you have won in total over the total amount of hours you've played (care to share?), it is simply far more likely you went on a massive heater in a good game over a very short period of time, and now over another (admittedly) very short period of time your method is proving to not be as infallible as you think it is.

Gagain,takingthisallatfacevsalue,lol@me,ldoG

I'm up around 13k this year I only play on either Friday or Saturday night some times both. I started playing live again around 8 months ago.

Also to note there's around 20-30 grinders that play every fri/sat as well we have about 25 tables and I've seen these guys consistently walk away on these days with the same as I am telling you I have or much more on a 1/3 game. Which is actually a lot more profitable then the 2/5 game on the weekends because of the random novice drinkers that come there. There are also some players I just simply will not play against if they come to my table because I know they are much better then me or just really ****ing lucky against me. But I wont deny that was a really good heater I was on. It does suck to go 5 straight sessions empty handed and I never said my method was infallible its why I am on this forum. Trying to better my game.

Hours?

If I guesstimate 48 sessions at 10 hours and round up, that's 500 hours. Which means your winrate (over a *very* small and kinda meaningless sample size, kinda a typical year for a rec player) is almost 9 bb/hr. Which is vey solid, but nowhere near what you think you're supposed to be doing.

ETA: No trying to be an idiot here. Just kinda giving you a friendly heads up that (a) you've got an almost meaningless sample size under you're belt, (b) your "expected" winrate is not remotely possible, and (c) there's a very good chance you're just a fish on a heater (i.e. it's not really bad variance you're recently encountering, it's more likely you're strategy doesn't work nearly as good as you think it does). But yes, certainly no harm in hanging out, posting hands, and trying to get better; good luck!

Goryoucouldjusttellmetheamountofhoursyouhave(saidinKramermoviephonevoice)G

I would say its more like 250-350 hours live this year not 500 and I still play online mainly tournaments I've probably ran around 2 or 3k hours a year for the last 4 years online usually 2 or 3 tables at a time. Around a 10% final table rate 3-5% first place and 20-30% bubble rate online. I used to grind daily happy to leave with a few hundred up for a couple hours back when I was doing outside construction sales but I'm not in that field anymore.

So, you've had a winning streak of 13-14 sessions and won anywhere from 800 to 2100 per session. You've won about $13,000 this year. Even assuming just 13 sessions and only 800 in wins per session, that leaves you with only $2600 for the rest of the year. If you won the average amount over those sessions, you were a losing player for much year.

My suggestion is to keep accurate track of your winnings since the numbers aren't adding up. Most poker players either don't know or lie about their winrate. One paradox of poker is that in a large room, you only take notice of the players that have built up big stacks. The ones that lose 4 buyins in an hour slink away unnoticed.

The hardest rule in poker is to never lie to yourself. That's how most people go busto.

i play tight, aggressively, and selectively, and try to plan out every hand i play from the flop on. my goal is to play maybe 2 hands an hour (out of the blinds) , and always in raised or re-raised pots. i see it as a chessmatch. if i win 2 big pots for an 8 hour session thats all i need.

because i think that deeply about things i dont really GAF about bad beats because im too worried about other things.

No I said I was up 13k for the year that counts the 2500$ I lost over 5 sessions. bank roll is at 20k and logger i started says 13k and change positive. I just got off work so I looked at it and it's 27 sessions. Average profit around 700$ if I didn't take a loss.

When I said I had 13 sessions winning I was telling you the amount I left with not the profit. So usually deduct 300 to 500$ for buy in from the amount listed. Largest profit session was 1650$.

So would you really count that as losing? I'm not being a dick I'm really curious.

I try to so that myself I am just wondering if I'm starting to slip because I keep thinking about these coolers. I know variance is real I've just never had it last 5 sessions in a row.

the only thing that should be going through your head after a bad beat is to adopt the information learned from how the hand played out and the hands shown down to adjust your strategy, if necessary. and without being results-oriented. in poker there is a constant flow of information and you should always be looking to take it in.

easier said than done i know. i have noticed myself that when i take a beat that i find myself not focusing enough on the next few hands that are played (i try to play close attention to all the hands whether im in them or not). i think thats a big leak.

Oh for sure even when I'm semi card dead for 5 plus orbits I'll sit and watch as much as I can to exploit. After about 4-5 hours I see my attention span start to dwindle so I'll take a meal break to come back fresh and finish out a session. The one thing I heard Daniel Negreanu say that I took to heart recently is to plan a time to leave before getting there and stick to it.

My old problem was trying to leave at a certain dollar amount cost me about 5k in profit I could've walked away with over several sessions bc I was so obsessed with leaving at a specific dollar amount.