2/5: Top pair + FD facing turn bet against villain possibly on tilt
2/5, 8-handed
VillainA (25yo Asian male, 50/25, $700) opens to $20 UTG. He has played erratically, bluffing with showdown value hands. Recently lost a 4k pot pre-flop calling with JJ vs AA.
VillainB (45yo white male, 30/10, $500) calls in MP
Hero ($900) calls in LJ with KJdd
VillainC (60yo white male, 15/10, $500) calls on the button
Flop ($87): Js 6c 4d
VillainA bets $30, VillainB folds, Hero raise to $70, VillainC folds, VillainA calls
Turn ($237): 6d
VillainA checks, Hero bets $110, Villain goes all in
What do you do?
4 Replies
Preflop would seem to be raise or fold, especially versus an erratic raiser and a flat.
His range would certainly have a combos of KJ suited, QJ suited, J10suited, KQ suited and any Ax most likely Ax suited weak kickers and small pocket pairs 22-99 most likely because of the smaller bet sizing however it is UTG. So lets use his range starting out Js 6c 4d.
Villain c-bets to continue control of the hand for 30 which in his position is slightly weak out of position and multiway trying to narrow the field. So lets re-adjust the range and throw out things in the range that most likely will not continue..
Pot is 117$ before your raise I think you have to pot bet or even larger to get these weaker hands off the range or simply call. Lets say you did raise it for 110$-140$ to take it down and he still calls, I think you have to be in high alert mode. You could be up against a set most likely of 4's or 6's I wouldn't put such a small bet pre on JJ with an erratic player even UTG.
So lets say he did call that pot bet turn comes... 6d
you cannot ever love to see your diamond draw with a paired board and a lowly j with k kicker here when he just called your pot bet...
I would be on danger danger zone here and if he gives you a free check TAKE IT. You have another street there was 237$ in the pot already don't get greedy he is erratic!! IF you had made it pot bet and he called that there's even more in the pot now your bet will induce his BluffoBaggins 3bet jam.
On the flop I think I prefer a call here vs someone that's going to erratically bluff and if you are going to raise you will need to make it a lot. Villain opened the preflop betting and wants to stay on the aggressive you have top pair top kicker I think a call is not insane here.
Oh almost forgot I would fold to that all in jam.
PRE - 3B or fold. Don't flat call.
FLOP - just flat call. Don't raise.
TURN - just check back. Don't bet.
As played, we might have 14 outs if we don't have the best hand, so around 28% equity. He's jamming $500 on top of our bet, so we're being laid less than 2:1 on a call. Seems like we have to fold, unless we think we're ahead.
