Turning my hand into a bluff. Did I punt?
**Hero (1120):** TAG. My image at this table is solid but not overly tight.
**Villain (1200):** Weak-passive player in the BB. Seems uncomfortable facing aggression. Not particularly tricky.
**Blinds:** 5-10
**Preflop (Hero SB):**
Hero raises to 30 with **JcTh**, Villain calls.
*(I know this is a marginal raise pre, but I figure I have a skill edge over Villain. I wanted to push that edge preflop, even with a hand that doesn’t perform well out of position.)*
---
**Flop (60):**
**Tc9d5h**
Hero bets 45, Villain calls.
*(I flop top pair with a decent kicker. I decide to bet for value against weaker Tx, 9x, or potential draws like 87 or QJ. Villain’s call keeps their range wide—likely Tx, 9x, and straight draws.)*
---
**Turn (150):**
**Qc**
Hero checks, Villain bets 100, Hero raises to 320, Villain calls.
*(The Queen is a scary card for both of us, completing KJ and improving Qx hands in Villain’s range. It also brings a flush draw. I check to pot-control and assess Villain’s intentions. When they bet, I decide to represent a polarized range with a check-raise. My raise targets hands like Tx or weaker Qx while protecting against draws. Villain’s call narrows their range to strong Tx, Qx, or draws like KJ, 87.)*
---
**River (790):**
**4c**
Hero goes all-in for 780, Villain tanks.
The 4c completes a possible flush, and I decide to turn my hand into a bluff. I shove to maximize fold equity, targeting Qx and Tx that Villain might have trouble calling off with. My line screams strength—straights, sets, or two-pair hands. I also have all the flushes.
Did I punt?
On a wet board, you usually should generally make plays like checkraise only with a really strong hand or draw.
Your hand was strong enough to check/call or bet/call. You weren't really bluffing or value betting on the turn, which is not good.
In fact, assuming your plan was to shove the river, most of the time you would be ahead and he wouldn't call. The rest of the time, like here, he wasn't folding, except maybe if a K hit.
Villain can have other hands, but he often has a combo draw too, as occurred. Making a big bluff on the river when villain had a draw is a disaster. Not sure you get him to fold 2-pair either.
.
For what its worth, i plugged your hand in a bvb 100bb sim and your line is ev neutral, the only deviation is the turn where it generally just calls instead of the x/r but if you think the guy is weak tight then its probably fine.
A punt wouldve been to x/r turn and give up on that river, despite of the results.
For what its worth, i plugged your hand in a bvb 100bb sim and your line is ev neutral, the only deviation is the turn where it generally just calls instead of the x/r but if you think the guy is weak tight then its probably fine.
A punt wouldve been to x/r turn and give up on that river, despite of the results.
The problem is the river improves villains range and I don't think he folds his straights/sets/two pair/etc to the jam. I think we can get him to fold single pair Qx most of the time but that's a small portion of his range. If he folds everything but flushes to a river bet then go for it, but I don't think that's true.
IMO OTT x/c > b/c > x/r. You turned your hand into a bluff, but you were ahead and a 62% favorite OTT.
Yes. A better way to think of it is: "What range are you check/calling?"
Also what did you want to happen. Eg. Which hands do you think V bets that you fold out, and which that he bets does he call.
Nobody said that, but given you bluffed and got called on the turn with the best hand ... was it really a bluff?
If we knew villains range that well and how much he folds, life would be a lot easier ... at a guess most people fold something on the river, but maybe not a lot. And some will be so nutty after calling the turn x/r they either have big clubs, or a set+ and might even sigh call all of it.
For what its worth, i plugged your hand in a bvb 100bb sim and your line is ev neutral, the only deviation is the turn where it generally just calls instead of the x/r but if you think the guy is weak tight then its probably fine.
The solver flop bet was for a much lower size, I assume.
I wouldn't call it a punt. I think villain is in a difficult spot on river, when Hero's range is very mergey - and hero has excellent blockers to turn his hand into a bluff.
It's fine to turn this hand into a bluff, but you did it too early.
Every street before the river is played too aggressively.
