River Bluff at 1/3. Cbet and River Sizing

Your last line explains how bad the 3bet pre is. You're likely lacking fold equity, so you're just building a pot with position but a really poor hand. I think postflop is fine.

I think I understand this. The 3bet is bad if I feel she will also call it wide, because 54s isn't ahead of much at all.

If she raises wide but is more likely fold to 3 bet, then we might put this in the 20% 3bet?

I imagine fold to 3 bet stat is hard to get live. Are there any hints or stereotypes that might be useful here? Other than I guess, not 3betting so light until I have a read?

Maybe, many regs are weary of squeezes from button?

I'll start by admitting I didn't bother to parse all the stuff from Upswing, Red Chip, and CLP, nor all the calculus about V's range and our equity against it. I'm just going with personal thoughts based on experience and learning away from the table.

Also, while I haven't played at Borgata in ages, I regularly in rooms nearby (mostly Parx), and don't imagine the action is significantly different between Philly and AC.

PRE - The LJ's raise to $10 at 1/3 seems small to me, especially over an EP limp, and likely an indication of weakness to me. Ditto for the HJ call.

Therefore, I don't hate the raise with 54s, and I think the 4x size is fairly standard, but I could also see just folding and just calling when we're only 100bb effective, and also raising slightly larger if we were starting out deeper.

FLOP - We made bottom pair on an ace-high board. It's a tricky spot. I could see checking back, c-betting small, and c-betting large. With our specific hand, I think checking back is probably best.

While our hand could benefit from some protection, it's unlikely V is calling with very many PP's or un-paired hands with little to no hope of improving. V is likely to call our c-bet with AX and good draws. Even if we check back and V makes a pair on the turn, she's not likely to hold on if we make a delayed c-bet and continue to bet on the river.

The problem with c-betting this flop is that we only started 100bb effective, and we're bloating the pot with a weak hand that can't bet multiple streets for value, isn't likely to be good at showdown, and doesn't stand much chance of improving to a very strong hand. I think we're better off just checking back, and making a delayed c-bet if she checks again on the turn.

TURN - We screwed up by getting here the way we did. I think I'd check back now, and fold if she donks river.

RIVER - V either has a missed draw that will fold to any size bet, a PP that may or may not fold to any size bet, or she's boated up, and is never folding, just checking to check-raise or check-call.

Against that range, I don't think we need to jam to get her to fold the parts of her range that aren't praying we jam when she checks. We could probably bet $80 and achieve the same result as jamming, while saving ourselves $120 when she snaps us off.

That said, the story we're telling here isn't all that credible when we c-bet the flop small, check back turn, and then another ace appears on the river. I'd think most of our AX combos are going to barrel the turn and jam river, and our 88-KK are likely to just check back.

If I'm V, just check-calling the whole way with 88-QQ, after opening and getting 3B pre, I'm probably not folding QQ or JJ, and maybe not TT, because it's hard for you to have Ax or 7x here, on this run-out, and 88-QQ is going to be good a lot.

Squeezing this hand is pretty spewy IMO. I don't think we have to squeeze suited connectors at all unless we expect at least one of the players is likely to fold to our 3bet. You shouldn't expect many folds when you're giving them 2:1 odds.

Now that we're here on the flop, I think we have to c-bet small. Both ranges are pretty capped, and this is one of the better boards for bluffing (except for the flush draw).

On the turn, the SPR is ~1 which is bad for us. I do think this is one of our better bluff hands though. Our playability on every river is awful and we don't really mind folding to a raise despite the sick odds. I think we could bet 1/2 pot and make those flush draws with overcards to our 4 fold. An added bonus is getting JJ-88 to fold. Doing this with the intent to check back every river, except maybe this one.

As played we can just bet $80-$90 and get those folds from high cards that we're looking for.

i think its wp although most reasonable people are going to realize u dont x the ax u cbet ott v often

no idea what the analysis u r doing in the op but at best its an inefficient way to look at things

Thank you everybody for your input. I'm reading and considering it all carefully and I appreciate it a great deal!

I prolly spent about two hours working on this hand so I'd have to imagine you are correct 😃

yah id just use gto-wizard lol

i think your ranging is kind of off for v both pre and postflop