1/3 Squeeze spot bluff catching river

I think you have a pretty good bluff catcher here and I am having trouble assigning him a logical value range given action on previous streets.

I wouldn't make much out of his checking out of turn on the turn. Questions I'd ask myself on the river:

1. What kind of range are you giving the BTN? He's a passive player who cold-called preflop and then called your very large 3-bet. Unless you're putting him on exactly AsQs, I think you're smoked here.

2. On the off-hand chance you think this villain is capable of this type of bluff, is TT even in your MDF the way this hand played out?

I'd fold and feel fine about it.

On the other hand,

A. I'm confused why you went so big with your preflop 3-bet? I think $75 would have gotten the same result.

B. I'm confused why you neither bet the flop nor bet the turn?

A. I think 100 is a pretty standard size here. We have an open and two calls and we are out of position. I default to 4x plus 1 for each caller out of position when I'm 3betting. 105 would be 7x. These villains are way too loose so I'm 3betting for pure value here with TT

B. I think the flop is an obvious check. Once we flop two overcards to our TT we are happy to try to get to showdown cheaply if possible. I considered betting the turn once he checked out of turn which I assumed meant he was weaker, but I think again we are still happy to try to get to showdown.

Did you really assume that raising to something like $75 would've gotten more callers? Most low-level fish aren't THAT sticky. In addition, you claim you're raising for "full value," but how does TT compare to the ranges of players who call such a large 3-bet?

Oh well, so much for "full value."

And how did that plan work out? By checking 3-times you basically told your opponent "I definitely can't beat a K or a J."

I think preflop sizing may be a tad large but not excessively. OOP I would rather err larger than smaller. I would have probably gone 80 personally.

I think a flop check is pretty standard OOP here. It’s a good flop for our range but if we are going to have a checking range TT is definitely in it.

I like a small turn bet for value/equity denial/buying a cheap showdown but checking again is not terrible.

Your last comment lends reason to bluff catch.

Except for that little issue of there being few logical bluffing candidates that Villain could have here.

Vs at these stakes aren’t always logical. And also call 3-bets wider than you may be suggesting. V can easily be spazzing with a worse PP, AQ, any suited A, QTs.

Can’t think of a ton of logical value hands that check flop and turn IP. He wasn’t the preflop opener. He flatted a raise and then flatted a 3-bet so he’s probably bad.

I would call preflop and play TT 4-ways OOP. I don't think this is a good hand or situation to light 3!.

This is a pretty bad flop for us, but I don't know if we can check with a psb left.

Even as a new convert to "rarely call pre-flop raises, even in the blinds," I prefer calling here to 3-betting.

I don't think 75 would get more callers but if the fish are price inelastic to calling these large 3bets with trash such as kjo, qto, t8s we should be happy to raise bigger and get them to still call with their weaker wide range. We should be 3betting as large as we can get away with to still get called loosely. So if they are calling 75 and 100 inelastically then 100 is definitely going to be a better size because we get to put more money in with our range advantage.

As fatmanonguitar pointed out the fact that my hand looks so weak is exactly the reason why we should consider calling here.

Check out of turn = sometimes an angle to induce a bet, but often just a clueless player not paying attention. Here, I'd think it's the latter (he's clueless), and assume it's safe to bet.

Saying "I'll show" is generally an indication of a bluff, but not always. The psychology in play is that bluffers don't want to induce an angry or curious call, and would prefer opponents fold, so they offer the future consolation of getting to see the hand.

Alternatively, sometimes they have it, and are reversing the tell, or they just don't mind everyone seeing the monster they made.

I don't know about the river. V is mostly repping a J, or maybe some Kx for value. If we know he's capable of bluff jamming for almost 80bbs when opponents give him enough rope, then I guess we can call. But without knowing more about how he plays, we're just guessing.

There are a lot of missed draws available for him to use as bluffs, and we did give him a ton of rope by checking to him three times, and our hand is a decent bluff catcher. I might flick in the call here, sometimes, but I don't think folding is terrible.

Just because V is splashy pre, does that mean he's spewy in post flop spots like this? Have we been seen over folding in spots like this, perhaps making him think his bluff will get through a lot?

idk. mostly dislike line but id call. am inclined to think b10 or minbet is better than checking the river if i got here this way

Results

yeah live tells seemed promising to call. i still think u have a marginal value bet vs underpairs otr given pre ranges / action so far

You almost always want to size up your 3bet from the SB. This isn't even a large size compared with how much is in the pot already. I think you can go even larger here in low stakes and definitely shouldn't be sizing down.

There's $30 in the pot + blinds, and it sounds like you want to raise to $100 with TT?

Why not just shove?

So, first off - nice call.

Secondly, with all due respect to submersible, I'd be hesitant to bet our hand for value on the river, even for 10% pot. I wonder how often live low stakes players are going to call off with worse than TT, even if we bet 10% pot, as opposed to how often they'll bluff for a large amount if we check to them three times, with the intention of calling if they bet. Seems like you got more value than your hand warranted from his hand by checking and letting him stab.

Maybe I'm just looking at it wrong, and betting 10% pot on the river wins more over the long haul than check-calling, and risking a check-back or calling a larger bet. I'd have to see the math and understand the assumptions.

Lastly, once again, this is another hand that calls our reads and assumptions into question. I'm not trying to beat you up, OP, but I wonder how many people here read that V is "pretty passive" and think he's never going to jam worse for value on the river. I suspect that's why Always Fondling suggested a fold. It's certainly why I thought we could go either way with bluff-catching or folding.

What would V's logical bluffs be on the river? I suppose QT, Q9, and T9 are all in there, if V double flats pre-flop with all those hands. Otherwise, he has to be turning something with some sort of showdown value, or just ace-high into a bluff, and few low stakes players are going to turn showdown value into a bluff when the PFR checks to them three times.

V's line doesn't make a ton of sense, if we assume he bets Jx when we check turn. But I'd have expected to see a missed straight draw before seeing him jam with A6, given that his bottom pair beats all the hands we're likely checking three times. His jam would be targeting 77, 8x, 99 and TT to fold? That's a pretty narrow range to target.

He could have made it $50 on turn with bottom pair, and then jammed river, and it would have been more credible. If he's scared to bet turn and river, and just suddenly decides on the river he's going to rep a J, he could have bet half pot, and folded out most or all of the same range his jam is targeting.

I think you make a fair point about reads I probably should have described him as overly loose rather than focusing on passive. Just noticed his passivity preflop with all the limping as opposed to the other preflop player in the pot who was also loose but more aggressive preflop. I didn’t have good reads or specific memory of his post flop play patterns; probably should be paying more attention but it’s hard to get all those reads in the 1 hour I had been at the table. So I tried to keep the description short. I had noticed him doing weird stuff post flop but no big bluffs bets of this size prior to this hand.

I ultimately think live reads and the line making no sense are why I made the call.

Based on his reaction and the I’ll show comment I actually think he thought he was bluffing because he didn’t seem too happy about the call and was hesitant to turn over his hand

Preflop is a little big.

Bet flop.

I would fold river as a standard, but it's close enough I don't mind going tell-fishing.

Hard to give advice on his answer because tells are much less about what was actually said/done on paper and more about how sincere/natural/etc they were. How quickly did he answer, was it a canned response, did they sound eager or nonchalant, did they seem to regret answering, etc.

Maybe more importantly, it's less about what they do when you give them the floor and more about the things they were hoping/assuming you didn't see. How each of you reacted to the out-of-turn action in the middle of the hand is probably more telling than their response to the most common question at a poker table at the end of it, and it seems like maybe you gave off more information than they did.

I can understand arguing for betting turn or even river but I really don’t think betting flop is correct here. We have 3rd pair so I think this hand falls squarely in our flop checking range unless you are advocating for range betting which I would not do on a texture such as this.

As for the tells; I definitely was taken back by the out of turn check and it made me really consider betting turn. I may have given away weakness by my response and letting the dealer know I hadn’t acted yet. Ultimately felt I was happy to take a free river and get to showdown faster.

I would, in fact, range bet flop. I would do it as a standard on honestly most K-high flops, but I would most especially do it against someone playing 50%+ of hands who double-called preflop after we 7xed it pre into two players and smashed a KJx board.

TT is pretty middle of OUR range, but it is still getting plenty of value (and/or protection) against villain's range. I'm pretty indifferent about whether we get that value on the flop, turn or river, but I'd go for the flop here due to how I'm playing my range overall (but would pretty much flip a coin in the absence of that consideration).

Turn is kind of a coinflip once we get there this way, but I'd be more inclined to bet once he checks out of turn thinking it's a bit more likely he's eager for a free river/showdown.

River seems like a missed opportunity for a thin vbet/blocking bet.

Sometimes deep stack you can even make it 6x in a single raise pot this is multiway and you don't want to play too many hands post flop from SB. And as the OP pointed out villains are generally too wide and capped pre especially the guy who flatted from late position. If it's UTG open 15 I'm going 45 from UTG+1 but in this spot with this preflop action my 3bet sizing is gonna be big. Never jamming but definitely going "squeeze" size not 3bet size with most of my range. Maybe size down with top top of range

snap call.

edit: looked at results. the lesson to learn here is that people do not protect their flop/turn check back range. if you check flop 75% or more of 1/3 players will stab with almost any pair.

Live players calculate a raise size challenge (impossible)