[5/5] face river overbet in 3b pot

I guess based on reads I have to say call. I do expect to see exactly AA here against most players, but sounds like he's more of the "If their line looks weird, they're just spewing" type. There aren't really any better bluff catchers to work with.

Hand is played fine. I don't think the charts love QJs in this configuration, but it's the bottom of the range of hands I personally mix call with, along with some 4bing and some folding.

Not really sure what other street you would play differently, other than maybe some sims turn our hand into a bluff on the flop w a x/r like 10-20% of the time or some.

Why can't he have AA or AQ here? Seems a pretty standard line at low/mid stakes.

Do you have any strong hands when you check turn and check river? Idk what the solver says but I feel like in this configuration I just check/call a ton of weaker Ax on the river against a spewy/aggressive opponent. If you have no Ax and he knows this I guess you have to call.

my guess is pre is losing here as you vs him in particular (struggle to realize, probably skill dis adv blah blah for whats supposed to be basically an ev neutral / mix hand)

my initial thought when i saw the hand was x/r flop so am glad to see thats solver supported. i do think this type of villain is going to make u look at solver to see how to react to 3bs and flop bets in srp (most of the forum is way too passive) as its generally unintuitive.

think its tough spot now, am leaning fold but think its close and you could mix if you wanted but would structure ranges towards making river x range here a bit stronger. in the sim im looking at alot of the weaker ax are blocking the river but i wonder if the ev of check is higher vs this opponent. i dont think he is overbetting kq lol. i dont really think hes supposed to overbet AA but i see alot of people make that error where they get excited with value or don't really understand the implications of sizings etc. i rarely see people go super thin for value with overbets in spots where its not a clear bet (if he does with w KQ he becomes hyper exploitable) and he blocks calls. my other guess is people dont check back enough Ax!FH as ip ott. if u look at the sim he always xs back AA which makes sense, and checks back AQ a good amount, but he mixes every ax (ak gets bet the most and then other are basically pure mix) whereas i think this villain will bet them too much.

comedy option - raise river

suspect you will not get much help in this forum and the answers vs this opp are mostly going to be study and get better overall

Yeah, I’m half convinced by submersible and a custom sim I ran that you can just fold.

A-high boards in 3b+ pots are just such an Ace fest. Your vbet range for literally even just one street is Ax+, your bluffcatch range is Ax, your rebluff blockers are Ax.

Solver doesn’t even mix call with any Qx.

In practice, Ax hands are the things you’ll see slowplayed the most. AA and AQ for certain because they cripple the deck, and then a bunch of random low Ax trips just cause they know their hand is invincible and they figure they can get more value with a broken line (and he actually has those hands in his 3b range it sounds).

Spew is definitely always a possibility in these games against described player, but he MIGHT be accidentally balanced (and I was apparently wrong that Qx would mix call at equilibrium).

But I’m also not shocked if we fold and he flips KTo face up lol

ETA: Forgot to mention the sim I ran also raises flop like 30-50% with Qx. I'm willing to trade a sizable chunk of my training materials for anyone offering materials on how to form raising ranges in low SPR spots -.-

I'm def folding this as an MP open facing a HJ raise. If I continue, I'm tuning it into a bluff and 4-betting, but that would be at pretty low frequency.

AP, obv can't fold flop for that tiny sizing that is all the rage these days. Given reads, I like a flop raise, tbh.

River is just, bleh. Against most players, this line is super under bluffed and an easy fold. Against this guy, this could just be an "I know you don't have an ace" bet.

I think you can fold pre. Can also find a tight fold flop if they don't cbet frequently, and can definitely definitely fold river like snap muck it at low stakes.

It's a nice line from villain. I imagine Hero is relatively indifferent between call and fold vs villain archetype, but lean call, mostly because I think turn check does cap or discount the highest parts of his range that will want to maximize the chances of getting his entire stack in. I also think unblocking the K and having a j, makes calling slightly more attractive.

I tend to favor sticky styles though.

Unless you have seen v do this as a bluff just fold. This river overbet is massively underbluffed by everyone, including pros. I would mainly fold to 3b pre. This should be close to the bottom of our iso range and the pot is already bloated since we iso raised 5x. Even JTs is quite a bit better as a continue since it is less dominated by 3bets since there are more AQo and KQo combos than offsuited Jx and Tx combos v will show up with. Also JT makes more straights. It may seem like this is a brilliant bluff spot and we are probably going to be very capped here, but the reality is pros are just on average not bluffing enough here.

If you were going to bluff catch I think KQ would be slightly better. KJs, KTs, JTs are all bluffs v could have, so having a K, J, or T all block 8 combos of bluffs, but having a K blocks 3 combos of AK while you block 1 combo AJs. Both combos of Qx block AQ equally, v likely has all offsuit combos. But at the end of the day, I don't think blockers matter. The spot is just underbluffed, so as a rule I fold anything worse than trip aces here unless v has given me hand histories showing he is the redline warrior exception to the rule.

Are we exploitable for folding pure here? IDK. But I am pretty sure a call here is losing on average vs this villain profile.

Against this guy we’re going to be sure to strengthen our checking range oop. We should have plenty of Ax and don’t need to defend this.

I would fold pre, he’s going to make us play for stacks with top pair bad kicker.

Versus the profile you mentioned I would call pretty fast.

He probably doesn’t even play weak Ax like this so it’s an easier call than a smaller bet vs a lot of players.

Interested in results.

Thank you all for your input, it is much appreciated. The results are boring: I ended up folding and he didn’t show, because why would he. I don't think I've seen him overbet by this much a lot, if at all, so I managed to suppress my curiosity and I didn't want to make a marginal river call when I had only put in 120 so far. I decided I would rather regret the fold than regret the call.

I think some of you are giving him a bit too much credit though, but that's on me for describing him as possibly a pro. I don't know how studied he is, but I'm guessing it's less than some of you might think. I dunno… But again, that's on me.

To me, it's not an issue of how studied the guy is or whether he's a pro. Maybe Marc Goone finds this overbet bluff, but most regs/pros in live low stakes poker aren't like that. And neither are the recreational players. I think a call here would be an undeserved payoff.

Since this is a 3bet pot, and we flatted a cbet with an ace otf which is in his range, he's probably targeting Ax otr which he beats. He could of checked the turn for deception or not to fold hero out after filling up.