2/5/10/20/60 2.1k eff top 2 on 2 tone board 3 ways, facing raise, bet, jam bad runout.

Fist pump call against bluffy V.

feels like the turn decision is the key one here. from your description, this guy is shoving river 100% of the time after raising flop and betting turn when the flush comes in

A5 feels like the only value he might have that we beat, but does he shove river with that?

otherwise it comes down to his bluff frequency because 1.3 to win another 3.1 is juicy odds and as described, his range seems wide and he seems capable so this is a call

Why cbet 18% pot?

Is this a regular 2/5 game with straddles or normally played as 10/20?

10 is mandatory, 20 is almost always on, the 60 was a 1 off.

Was going for 25% pot flop, just ended up going a bit smaller unintentionally.

Can you recall if V was the pfr in the 54s hand? If not I assume he was in the blinds/straddle. Trying to get a sense of his calling range from the straddle (aside from KQo/55). What does he do with Axhh or QT for instance? And how fishy is the rec in the 60 straddle (ie., is V incentivised to keep him in the hand by not 3betting)?

He was in last straddle in that hand (caller). Here he is in the penultimate straddle.

V in 60 is a very wide rec, pretty incentivised to rope him in.

I don't know villain's exact range pre. Just giving you a snapshot of some of the types of hands I have seen him flat vs 3b in that position. He likes to mainly 3b ATs+ in that position from what I've seen. Good suited Kx generally 3b as well.

I find the small turn bet a little tricky. It's consistent with KhQx or KhTx and a few made flushes. I'm not sure if it's consistent with 55 or A5 (would expect larger, although larger e.g. 50%, leaves only 40% on the river). Axhh could easily XB turn but doesn't really need to raise flop. V seems narrow with both bluffs and value here and given the sizing tells I'm tending toward a call on the river (which is technically a bluff-catch, except maybe for A5).

A good concept is when you beat value you always call river but if you can only split with value you don’t.

If he can jam river with A5s we should call river.

River call seems obviously +EV, or even more of an automatic / snap call.

As played, I think both 3! the flop or xr are reasonable options. Couldn't villain easily have something like A2-ATo, and just be misreading the relative strength of Hero hand? especially when you accidentally sized incorrectly on flop.

Not clear he can value jam A5s though. Also, there is only 1 A5s combo available and we can expect him to 3b it at some frequency. Does feel like he can jam river with 55 though, AJ seems on the fence for him value jamming.

Even if he could jam A5 for value, with less than 1 combo due to preflop 3b, in practice if this was the only value combo we beat, it could still be an exploitative fold for us if we still don't beat enough combos to make calling profitable.

Not that I'm set either way on call or fold here. Just pointing out that whether or not he can have exactly As5s for value when we know he 3bets it some pre might be immaterial overall. The real questions to me are

1. Is there something about this line that makes it inherently imbalanced (is he splitting his value and bluffs at some point)?

2. If he is playing his bluffs and value the same OTT and river, is he finding enough bluffs? We can also count the potential value owning with a fractional combo of A5s, but I can think of for example 6 combos of KQo with a heart. I think it is more important to ask how often he 3bets that hand vs calls it pre and if he would play that hand like this postflop. Or if he would play other bluffs like this for that matter. And correspondingly, how many value combos are there?

Value raising worse on the flop is not the type of move I would expect from this particular villain. That said, because of potential flop bluffs, I don't think 3betting the flop is an unreasonable play. I do think we have to way that against allowing villain to blast off if he has a bluff though. We also have the option to check jam turn if it was not a heart. I feel like this villain tends to be more aggressive with his draws, more likely to barrel and less likely to check back turn to realize his equity.

I think xc turn vs the 400 is fine; my main point is that Hero can punish this type of villain with a light xr range.

I guess I'm sort of having a hard time following your reasoning overall though. To me this seems like, Hero can just snap river off against an aggrotard without needing to even really do a detailed villain range construction, because villain might be trying to fold out portions of Hero range like ak,aq,at, kk, qq, tt, with semi-bluffs that picked up equity AND he might also be going for thin value with other Ax that we can't automatically put him on (and we haven't even delved into many other parts of the iceberg)

The meta-history between you and villain seem like more of a reason to call.

It does seem tricky seeing what villain is going to cold-call 180 with, but how many flushes does he really have here?

Also: I think its a very easy value shove for villain if he somehow arrived at river with any a5 in range.

This is a 3-way pot with a fish with a wet dynamic flop with an ace, a 2-flush, 2 broadway cards, and even a possible wheel draw. I don't like betting 1/4 pot or less on this type of board. As happened, the turn changed everything.

This seems like the sort of runout which doesn't offer any intuitive bluffs. However, based on the original hand history, villain has shown he's capable of finding non-intuitive bluffs. Personally, I would be hard pressed to tell you what hands I am supposed to turn into 3 barrel bluffs. Baby pairs with a heart?

We are also 35BB deep. Based on villain's description and previous hand history, I am inclined to call.

Not a fan of the small cbet in this spot.
I guess you cbet this flop at pretty low frequency, therefore you could/should go bigger when you do it, shouldn't you?.
Indeed you block a lot of made hands, but there is plenty of draws out there which are calling a bigger bet.
As played, I'd probably just keep it simple and shove over V's raise.

As played otf, we obviously don't love the runout and action, but we started with 35bb effective and hold top 2p: gii cannot be that bad, imo.

Given that your opponent is a tricky pro, it sounds like the river decision should be a simple mdf calculation.

On this river, I'd assume top 2-pair qualifies as a snap call.

I’d bet flop $130, but not sure it’s a big deal.

You should cumulatively be raising at least one of the preceding streets (especially turn) a majority of the time. Not that you never get there this way but the fact that you’re not thrilled to face a jam on an 8x river makes me think the factors that make it so you should get there this way don't apply.

Without a solid sense of precisely how much each bet is narrowing each players’ range, whether villain would do this with worse for value, or whether a T/20 player is gonna find this line as a bluff in game, it does seem like you need to call off with this hand on this SPR. It’s not a particularly bad runout.

I would say A5s mostly calls preflop because of the 35BB effective stack. Combos are also relative to the spot, meaning 1 combo doesn’t mean much in a SRP but can be the difference between a call and fold in 3BP/4BPs.

This hand plays closer to a 3BP because of flop SPR.

I would call for the following reasons:

1. You bet very small OTF, this will induce raises from gutshots from more aggressive players. You also unblock all gutshots OTF with your hand.

2. Ace high board texture. Villain will know this a polarized flop and that it will be hard to continue with a lot of your range vs a raise. As 3BP IP PFC ( I know this is a SRP but it plays closer to a 3BP) you get the highest frequency raising ranges on Ace high boards.

3. Bet sizing. This is the clearest reason for me that it is a call. He knows bet sizing in the R-B-B line at lower SPRs. The small turn bet on FCT and him knowing to play 3 streets instead of jamming turn makes it an easier call.

Bet sizing is indicative of theoretical knowledge which expands bluffs for villain.

Cool hand and interested in results.

I think because we cbet so small (almost half of what we raised pre) it makes the rest of the hand alil more difficult, esp vs someone like him. I'd probably raise you with almost my whole range too if I was him, so I'm not too concerned about a FD. After calling the turn I think we have to expect a likely jam and we would have to call it off here (and fwiw I'd raise the flop).

I think you have to call especially if you think V might be tilted and just trying to steal. Why would he raise your bet on the flop if he had a nut draw on the flush or any flush for that matter. I'm really thinking AK maybe AQ off here w/ maybe the A of hearts to represent the highest of flush draws but I don't think he's pricing himself to see a turn card when he could simply call and catch then trap you on the turn. Got to believe you are super good here and he's tilting top pair top kicker.

Question for me is how long ago did he rebuy? What did he rebuy for and has he been splashy after or waiting? Did he win or lose any significant pots after rebuying? These would be the things I would certainly factor in before making a call for most of my stack. I would normally say within the first 30 minutes of rebuying if he tried this move I would for sure call and continue taking advantage of his tilt.

One thing I thought I would mention is why did you size so small on the flop you have constantly told me about sizing brother! So I couldn't help but notice it feels a wee bit small and when he re raised why didn't you 3! big optimal spot!!!

I'm obviously being kind of self-deprecating here, but I think you have to ask yourself if you would have put him on 54s in the other hand. I mean, are you truly shocked to see a bare 5 or K7dd or whatever here?

I think precise ranging is sort of out the window (especially when you misclick the flop size), and just the basic math of whether your hand is in the top 20% of hands or whatever that should make it to showdown will be a better guide.

What would you have re-fired 3! on the flop for extreme value? Just curious?? I can't see you calling with top two and a heart board.

Sorry if I'm misunderstanding the question, but I would make it 900 with a value range mostly consisting of a mix of two-pair+.

I think flatting flop against this guy is fine, but I'm very inclined to shove turn, especially if I don't expect him to jam worse on a relatively blank river. I just see people make so many polarity mistakes OTT here.