Too thin with top pear? Or standard stackoff?

I overlimp in the HJ but that's my style. Obviously raising over 2 limps in likely the "standard" play.

Going very multiway to low SPR pots offering everyone fantastic IO preflop is very meh, imo. The more everyone is capable postflop, the more this becomes an incredibly dicey (and at the very least high variance) situation. The more everyone is a postflop moron and can't wait to shove in chips with bottom pear / A high, the more this ain't as bad a spot.

Here the SPR is a handcuffing < 3, the board is very drawy, and we haz TP (albeit not the toppest). Do we feel committed against this group? If so, I'd ~PSB the flop to shove non-moronic turns. Otherwise, all a small bet does is setup a situation where we're only going to have a PSB left for the turn anyways while offering good immediate odds. Are we thinking of not committing on a lot of cards? Or perhaps bet/folding to aggression on the flop?

As played, the 9 completes some draws but not all of them. So I guess I'm fine with following thru with our commitment plan.

As an aside, I will say one of the reasons I use the method I do is that it pretty much avoids huge swingy spots. Your stacks are going to fluctuate massively (as well as the sizes of your wins and losses) when you continually get yourself into these spots. The more you can handle those ups and downs with a cool head, the more you'll be fine. The more you can't, the more you may want to consider doing something different. Not hating, but balancing out your day-to-day poker swongs with a BBJ win (which I believe you mentioned recently?) is not a feasible long term plan.

GcluelessswongynoobG

I'm OK with pre, but I'd rather have better position to raise w/ KQo.

Flop is OK. Not sure I like the jam on one of the few cards you really dislike? Let's hope the snap call on the flop was a flush draw and not a straight draw.

Yes I have these big swings you describe and I'm wondering if it's too marginal here, but I don't know what else to really do in this spot other than check flop. I'm not limping pre (although I understand that works for you). OTF I hate checking this 5-ways and running it down - I do this sometimes with made hands and one of two things happens IME. Either 1. my hand holds and I win a mediumish sized pot or 2. my hand doesn't hold and someone either bets and I lose a few more bucks or they don't bet and I just lose the original RFI.

Either way I find this "small ball" checkdown stuff really annoying. People are in here with such a wide array of hands (some that are actually ahead of me, even preflop like AQo).

I also heard somewhere on youtube "your higher variance will more than make up for your losses" from a guy advocating a very LAG approach at LLSNL.

Preflop is what sets up this high variance spot. As soon as you raise, you've cast that in stone at your typical loose LLSNL table.

But yes, you're most likely right, a much higher variance laggy approach has much more potential to book a higher winrate (and perhaps even "smooth out" the variance... although I doubt anyone here has as variance-free giraffe as my method produces, albeit at a potentially capped winrate).

So it really comes down to how well you deal with high variance. Computers don't take this into account because they are utterly immune to it. Humans, not so much... but everyone is different. You'll have to answer these questions yourself. If you don't play too well when you're going thru huge swongs (let alone enjoy the mental health swongs they can produce), it may be a tough route for you.

Ggoodluck!G

Thanks G. I just monte carlo sim'd it and gave V a fairly reasonable range to the turn like pairs+draws and didn't even include flush draws and KQo is apparently 55% to win so I'm feeling a little better.

Result:

Does the sim take the snap call into effect?

No. It's just what I assumed his range to be to the turn. I don't know, I'm on the losing side of all these spots lately, my value never holds up and my draws never hit and this was the best hand I'd had in hours so I went with it (not that thats a good reason). I think it's marginal but still +EV.

PRE - If the table is full of losing loose passives who get sticky post, I'd probably raise to $25 or $30. Because why not? It's NO LIMIT hold'em.

We can raise to any size we want. Punish these nimrods if they want to make loose calls and get sticky with garbage. Let's put pressure on the players behind us to fold, so we can at least have position post flop.

FLOP - Either bet stupid small, to induce a raise from better, bet stupid big to get folds or loose calls from worse, or just check to let the CO or BTN stab at it with worse value and draws.

Betting half pot here doesn't seem to accomplish much. No one is folding better (AQ, QT, 66), and we're probably not folding out KJ, J9, or flush draws, for this size. All we're doing is bloating the pot, without really defining anyone's range when they call.

Hypothetically, if you got raised here, say, to $200, are you calling, or jamming the rest in? That's the problem with betting half pot, and only leaving yourself a PSB remaining if you get called, less if you get jammed on.

It's an easy fold if we bet $20 and get x/r'd, or an easy call if we bet $150 and get jammed on. It's just gross to bet $50 and get raised, and not really much better to bet $50 and get called, when we're going to hate so many turns and rivers on this board, with just TP2K.

TURN - I mean...KJ and 87 got there, as did J8, Q9, and T9, which are all possible, if the table is as loose and sticky as you say it is. What worse hands call our jam here? QJ, maybe, if the BTN is REALLY terrible?

He snap called flop? That's often an indication of a good draw, and we don't block many, if any of the hands that might have improved here, other than KhJx.

I wouldn't be surprised if he snap folded with a hand we beat. Won't be surprised if he snap called with a hand that has us crushed. Might be surprised if he calls with QJ or worse.

ETA - just scrolled down and saw the reveal, after typing all the above.

1. Results too soon. C'mon, Banana.

2. KJ may be top of his range, but a lot of the range that snap calls flop improves on this turn, and there's very little in that range that we beat that will also call our jam.

You're playing scared money. Instead of playing the course, you're trying to force it to bend to your will.

You should want opponents to call super wide, super narrow, or fold on the flop. If you bet small on flop, it would have been easier for you to find the check on the turn. If you bet big on the flop, the turn is a trivial jam for value.

You tried to take the middle path, and got run over.

I would've gone PSB or 2/3 bet and then rest on turn. Targeting those draws and weaker Qx.

1/2 pot on the flop seems less optimal because you make less when they miss on the turn and fold + they don't feel as committed on the turn and they have a much easier decision facing an overbet vs. a near pot sized bet. As a bonus, KJ is more likely to fold vs Pot or 2/3.

As played, I would shove, protecting our equity against those high equity draws. The only value we're worried about is something like AQ, KJ, Q9s, J8s, T9s. And KJ is way less likely when we hold a king and no clubs.

thx as always doc.

Preflop is super standard. IMO limping would be bad. Could go bigger. I would go a little bigger on the flop.

Turn you have to shove with a little over a psb. The 9 looks bad for you and was, but you picked up a gutshot with it.

Grunch: yes, seems Tilty and unnecessary.

Post Grunch: that’s what I’d expect V to show up with or 2p.

Question: was your shove for value?

Are you check/folding the turn?

Hypotheticals…. If V stuffs it, yeah, easy fold. If V bets $5 I call. I assume H is behind OTT. If V lays direct or implied odds I might call. But also would have bet smaller OTF.

Or maybe differently, there is no point in this hand where as H I’d be thinking “man, I should be trying to build this pot”. This looks more like a “let’s see a flop and try to get to showdown”. Not every hand has to be for stacks.