Flop Set as caller in 3b pot vs agro pro

Low spr + overall board wetness + being oop think I lean jam under this config but obviously call is fine too, kinda flow dependent

I like calling vs described Vilain

12 combos of QTs, JTs and 78s will likely continue to bluff river, unimproved. 9 combos of AK will bet river for value but obv would call a turn shove, so kind of irrelevant. He'll likely xb river with AQ, AJ, ATs, etc., but these combos may call a turn shove. If you think he's continuing with Ax on river then just calling turn is maybe better, since you also get more value with the bluffs (only the QT, JT and 78 with hearts would call turn). I'm veering toward call turn/x-shove river, but depends largely on how Villain plays AQ-AT versus a turn shove.

I am probably to naive, but I just x/shove this turn.

Question for those who x/c turn: what's the plan otr?
If H chekcs river, I assume that V either checks back or shoves, no smaller bet would make sense at this stack depth, imo.
So, does H c/c on all rivers? If not, does H c/f any river? Donk-jams any?

Pre and flop look great.

I admit I'd have a hard time not raising turn on a somewhat wet board. Think I just might be able to resist the urge here, maybe, because V should have so much AX/AK in his range, and because he's aggro. Still, it will suck to see any heart or Broadway card on the river.

I dunno. If you flat call, you'll have a PSB behind on the river, and V might not stick it in. If you raise, what size can you take that isn't all in? With no made hands possible, a min-click looks exactly like a set or AK, and maybe he folds, but the raise commits the rest of our stacks if he calls.

My gut says he'd bet bigger on the turn with AK. This looks like worse AX or KXhh. Think we could go either way, flat call to c/f on bad rivers, or min-click it and jam river. But with your read, I guess we want to keep giving this guy rope, and just flat call, with a plan to call off on most rivers.

Two ?s.
1st, nobody's going to complain about pre? We're usually not thrilled about IO < 15 to 1 when set-mining---we just had a thread about a poster open/calling 66, where most ITT were all, "You gotta fold that #*#&," and the poster was IP. Here? H is OOP to a skilled, aggro bluffy pro, almost identical IO and bbs, and it's a good move. Mlark knows what he's doing ofc, but the different treatment by the commentariat is amusing.

2nd, what is the point of the 1/4 & 1/3 cbets on a flop that should smack both a UTG open and +2 3! range? I imagine it's "solver-approved," and I'm trying to figure out the logic. I understand why H neither donks nor raises this flop. I'm just trying to figure out what a presumably extremely competent V is doing, and whether I should be emulating it. Is it that V is trying to keep tenuous draws like QJ/QT/JT or underpairs in?

AP, this guy likes to triple off and take control, keep on letting V do so. Stinks if V x-b river, ofc. My math has a 1300 shove into 1800 on the river, so ~70% pot.

Aside, what does V think of H? Does V perceive H as capable of giving up on the third barrel if river's a blank? There really aren't many likely draws though, even with the small cbet. KQ/KJ/KThh etc. Does H even open or call a 3! with all of those?

Did not read the other thread, but the call to the 3bet pre seems indeed very borderline to me.

I'm trying to think about this hand more from V's perspective to guide turn H's decision.

Flop - What does V think H's continuing range is here with no flush draw on board and H is OOP? Mlark doesn't tell us what H's image is to the V here. Even with a downbet, H's call is reasonably strong here.

Turn: so V sizes up. H's raises/jams are 66 and maybe some AK - a very narrow range. V folds all hands AQ or weaker to H's raise or jam.

We have more options on the river if we call, because we can target a wider range for a value bet (brick rivers) while still offering 2-1 (I calculate ~1325 behind with 2.2K eff start) if we jam broadway/flush rivers.

I think jamming turn allows V to play perfectly and fold his weaker Ax and QQ/JJ, while calling when ahead. Calling turn allows H to target a broader range on the river and can win more $. I think we are always going broke set over set here.

I was writing while you made your post. I agree but obviously Mlark knows what he's doing and can handle this situation. I would be folding here preflop oop to aggro skilled pro getting ~10-1 io.
I share your concern that H would look very strong here after two smooth calls but I still think it's the correct play.

Didn't even occur to me to put value into what aggro pro is calculating here. I actually think we do smooth call after reading this posters evaluation. The jam will most likely make them just give up and honestly we don't want this its time to put the screws to this guy. Sure the board is semi wet and you get coolered by 25% of cards peeling off but I really think a weak Ax could be in play here. I also don't think he's going to smash so hard with AK and would instead want to somewhat trap with such a big hand not play it face up.

I think at best and at worst he's playing AQ/AJ on the high end at worst he's playing some low Ax. The scare cards are Q10hh or QJhh or J10hh but really I don't see this being it. I really think he's on the former and your gonna get paid on his triple barrel bluff on the river losing a very small % of the time if he does cooler or actually has it. Get paid call let him triple barrel and jam his ass there.

I'm fine w/ pre depending on how often he's 3betting and how tight he thinks you are? You are OOP, but so is he -- and he's still 3betting w/ players behind (I'm assuming this is a full table).

Regardless, we got a great flop (we hope). Personally, I'm shoving the turn. There's enough in there and enough draws, so I don't want to let him see a river for $500.

This thread? https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/170/l...

The two situations are different enough to warrant the divergent advice given in each thread.

In the other thread, they weren't quite as deep (13x the raise size, as opposed to 14.67x here). It's close either way, but closer to a continue here than in the other thread, just based on the deeper stacks.

The other thread was 1/3, not 5/10/25. In the other thread, hero opened from the CO, the 3B came from the BB, and we weren't given any reads, just asked how we'd play against the population.

Here, we're deeper, hero opened UTG, V 3B from MP, and we have a read that he's an aggro pro who'll barrel off with bluffs and thin value.

We should give a 3B from the BB by the 1/3 population more respect than a 3B from MP by an aggro pro in a higher stakes game. The 1/3 population is going to be flatting very wide and 3B'ing fairly tight out of the BB. An aggro pro is going to be 3B'ing a lot to ISO from MP in a higher stakes game.

The 1/3 population is going to be c-betting at a fairly high frequency on the flop, even from OOP, and often for a larger size, forcing us to fold when we don't flop a set. A higher stakes pro, even an aggro pro, may occasionally protect his check back range by checking back on the flop, or if he does c-bet, will often c-bet smaller, allowing hero to see a cheaper, if not free turn card.

Generally, hero will be able to rep a stronger range opening UTG at 5/10/25 compared to opening CO at 1/3. On this flop, hero can rep all the sets, top 2P, and maybe some other 2P combos, like A9/A6/K9.

In the other thread, hero is going to have a harder time repping much strength on a lot of boards, when he opens CO and then just flats the BB's 3B. On the flop in that thread, hero shouldn't have very many sets or 2P, or a straight. He'll mostly be capped at middling over-pairs, top pair, or maybe 1P + a draw.

At 1/3, the population isn't going to barrel off when they miss, or go for three streets with thin value. This V apparently will.

Are you suggesting hero turn his hand into a bluff by jamming on draw-completing rivers? That seems crazy to me.

You do bring up a good point, though. If we just flat call the turn, would it make sense to donk the river, on any card? That's what I was getting at, when I said V might not stick the rest in (if he's on a draw that bricks).

Our read would seem to suggest V is going to barrel off with his busted draws, and worse for value. If that's right, then I'd guess we don't need to donk-jam on a brick.

If the river completes a flush or straight draw, and if the read is right, V might continue to bet his thin value, or he might check back, which seems like an argument for just jamming the turn. He's likely to snap us off if he's on a draw that gets there. He'd have to be 3B'ing and barreling pretty wide to bet the river without a pretty nutted hand.

My thought...

The turn decision is close because of the SPR when V takes such small sizing on flop and turn. I like just flatting the flop, with the idea of making a delayed check-raise on the turn. But I'd have expected V to bet bigger on the turn, allowing us to just get it in right there and then.

V is leaving himself a big chunk of chips behind going to the river, giving himself the option of sticking the rest in if he makes his hand, folding to a donk jam if he doesn't, giving up and checking back, or continuing to barrel off for a little more than 70% pot.

OP saying he's proud of himself makes me think he found a way to get it in. I'd want to do that by raising turn, probably just all-in, though maybe we could min-click it, leave ourselves around $800 behind, and jam it in on most rivers.

The alternative is to just flat call, leaving $1325 behind, hoping for a brick, and hoping that V jams his entire range. If V folds to our turn jam, and we don't get the rest of his money, we might not have gotten it on the river either. Maybe a min-click to get another $500 into the pot on the turn makes it more likely V calls off another $800 on the river.

It sucks for us when V takes this small sizing on flop and turn, and then folds to our jam. But there are 25 cards we're hoping to fade on the river. I don't know if I could min-click turn and fold any river, getting 4.5 to 1. So, yeah, I think I just jam the turn, and let the poker gods sort it out.

I would call since he's capable of triple barrel bluffs and thin value. He will likely go for value with AJ/AQ/AK. Let's not let him make a snug fold. Your xc xr line is going to look super strong and there aren't that many bluffs that could be taking this line.

I think folks are too worried about hearts and broadway hands getting there. We don't know he would have double barreled with draws, only gutshot straight draws are possible, and the Ah is accounted for, making a BDFD less likely.

I call and let him hang himself.

If we just call turn to let him hang himself, that means we check river and pray he bets a hand we are still ahead of. Plus, I assume we commit ourselves to check/calling, and there are a few cards we definitely don't want to see.

It feels as if we let him play the river perfectly?

I think you and Javanewt agree with my analytical framework here which is: What turn line (homage to Sklansky) lets the V make the most mistakes? We may disagree on the specific line but it seems like we agree on the framework.

I think turn jam allows V to play perfectly. He folds all his air and weak Aces and calls his AK and oversets. V has nut and range advantage on this board. A jam reps exactly what we have: 66.

Conversely, a call keeps our range wide. We can jam river bricks or value bet them. We have as many flushes as V does if river is a heart. We have as many combo draws too if river is broadway gutshot-completing. Yes our exact hand has to fade half the deck but our range doesn't. We make another 1000 if river bricks (50%) and sometimes V will make two pair Aq/Aj and pay us off even if there's a broadway river.

So I think calling turn is more EV+ than jamming but I look forward to hearing other views as I'm often wrong.

So, you are betting most rivers? If river is a heart, are you betting? If not, do you check/call? Check/fold?

The SPR is low enough I think worse calls start to creep in hence why I kinda favor jamming over watching AQ chk behind a wide myriad of wettish rivers or misc draws decide to not follow thru otr but could potentially calloff ott as this hand is shallow

I think more often than ppl think itt, by just flatting turn we allow villain to play closer to perfectly vs jamming ott but this is obviously quite villain/flow dependent, flatting may very well be best if op description is more than “good agro reg that is capable” - I would want to know how capable

What Ax are you folding river under this alignment starting at 88 blinds eff

You’re not flatting A5s or even KQs often pre I would imagine

Seems overly ambitious by him but wdik. Yes obviously just call turn 100% vs this guy

meh. feels like the first sentence colored everyones answer tbh. should just say reg / good reg next time imo. i think people 3b too much esp live and overbluff the wrong combos (although the sim i looked at had him running it w QQ which no one does) if you're looking for which way to skew v close turn decision - sim wanted to call w 6h and mix without h

With the hand he had, it wouldn't have been bad if you check/shoved the turn. Either he would fold with equity or call without the right price against your actual hand.

Since he 3!, he can represent AA/KK/AK on this board. In fact, I would have been a little bit concerned about set over set.

There are so many possible straights and flushes coming in, I think you had to check shove the turn. On the river, he doesn't bet much for value that you beat, and that is calling a turn shove anyway. Are we hoping he was barrelling with air and will 3-barrel with air?