JJ hits top set, huge pot. Sizing question.

I still think you have to bet here without any reads on the BB. Most people are going to have a ton of sets here, and it's actually kinda hard for him to have flushes when he doesn't donk river and can no longer have combo draws like 65cc and 86cc.

Stack sizes are really awkward though. I might just shove and pray.

Preflop and flop seems pretty standard.

V's turn sizing is notable. Why 1/2 psb? V should use polar sizing with semi-bluffs on a board where H could have missed. V chooses a value sizing which is just somewhat odd after V's flop xr. H raises. V should be jamming his sets but he just calls. Very strange line.

It's possible that V's turn sizing was really just a block bet trying to price his draw instead of a value bet. At the risk of leveling myself here, I'm checking behind because V's line makes no sense and I think he could have just misplayed his turn semi-bluff and actually made his flush on the river. He's no folding any flush getting 2-1 if we jam.

Grunch:

I'd raise bigger on the turn. Probably make it $600-$650. Really put pressure on his entire range, and set up an easy river jam.

SPR on river is awkward. Can't see a bet size less than all in which doesn't commit us to calling the rest off. Maybe downbet to $200, and hope he spaz raises with something stupid. Otherwise check back or jam, because we're not bet-folding.

The no thought check could be a flopped set that hates the run-out, and is hoping we check back, but still planning to call. Could also be a draw that missed, and won't call any bet. Occasionally it's A2cc or 53 that doesn't consider a donk bet, after we raise turn.

One more thought...

Try to get a tell. Look at V. See if he's glaring at you. Grab a stack of chips, and move it around like you're thinking about jamming. Watch his reaction. In particular, see if he reaches for his own chips, or motions like he might fold or flip over his cards. Ask him if he has any more big chips you don't see. Listen to how he responds. Does he seem relaxed, or tense?

I don't think the snap check should discount flushes by any means since we just raised the turn. If anything, a flush might check quick making it look like he gave up. If he gave it any thought then checked, hero might think he was deciding whether or not to bet his flush and then we just check it back. So it looks to me (with the limited info/reads on him) he wants hero to bet. If he was trying to slow us down he would of paused there imo.

His flop raise could also be a FD and the villain thinking "he couldn't of hit any of that".

I would just check back, it's already a 1K pot and a couple draws came in otr (and as noted above, I would discount sets since he only flatted the turn with multiple draws on the board). The snap check to me looks like a reverse tell that didn't work if we checked it back and he won.

I would raise larger on the turn with 2 2-flushes out there. Villain seems to have a draw, so I would check back the river, but I can see going for value.

53cc would be really filthy here... I'm initially taking Spanish's side on this, though not for that specific combo.

My concern is that V's lower sets should have either 3! or folded turn, not tank called. Draws would tank call, after calculating the odds, and the front door flush just came in.

53ss is also a possibility and also beats us :(

Spanish's post also made me reconsider JXcc as a possibility, which might take a half-pot size on the turn after picking up top pair.

Nobody considers betting $250/fold?

What are we hoping to get value from? Lower sets that called turn, and are now kicking themselves? Spade draws are folding to any bet, except 53ss lol. Ok, that one calls. Club draws got home.

Also, don't these kinds of bets induce shoves from a lot of the live population?Which we don't want to face with our top set showdown value.

JXcc also calls the raise vs 3!'ing turn. It's also discounting the 1 remaining JJ combo.

What does V think H has on this turn? Some broadway spades semi-bluffing with the raise, if those are calling a flop x-r from the BB? (I'm not, this deep. But then I'm not betting that flop either) JJ ofc. What else?

In general, block betting in position is very rarely worthwhile. If it's a spot that is worth betting, it's worth going for half pot or more. Block bet invites an aggressive opponent to shove and the risk of reopening the action isn't worth the extra $250 in value. Plus, shove more credibly reps a bluff, like A5ss or 65ss, if you even have those hands here.

I think whether you bet/jam or check back is dependent on whether you believe V is jamming his sets on the turn. I still think there is a good chance he shows up with sets here.

If we bet anything we have to call since it would be like a quarter psb more.

Since we just raised to 400 ott, betting 250 might look to him that we're afraid of the flush which might open him up to turning his hand into a bluff (88/99/TT) and getting us to fold the winning hand.

No. We're not bet-folding here. Your choices are:

1. Check back.

2. Jam.

3. Bet small, and call a jam.

As Spanishmoon rightly points out, his line doesn't make a ton of sense. What does his range look like?

It looks like he either flopped a lower set or 2P that mis-clicked the turn bet size, then gets scared of JJ when we raise, or he was bluffing with a draw that made a straight or flush on the river, or he had some sort of back-door combo draw semi-bluff that bricked out, like A5ss/A3ss/65ss.

We might be able to get value from 2P and sets, because we shouldn't have the club flush when we raise turn, unless we have exactly AJcc. Obviously he's just snapping us off with his draws that got there, and snap folding his back-door combo draws that missed.

I don't think his river check is all that perplexing. Some opponents will donk river when they hit their draw, but some will try to trap by checking in flow, because donking is so face up when all the obvious draws get there.

It wouldn't make sense for him to flat call turn with 2P or a set and then turn his hand into a bluff by donking river. Maybe a solver check-raises flop, bet-calls turn, and donk-bluffs river with 2P, sets, and A5ss/A3ss/65ss, but I don't think many humans are finding that line.

This is why I think we should raise larger on turn. His 2P and sets aren't folding turn if we make it $600-$650. Neither are his combo draws. Most of those hands are just 3B-jamming over top.

Maybe he mostly folds when he just has a straight or flush draw. But he's not folding when we make it $400 and he's being laid almost 7 to 1 implied odds on a call. Now when the draw comes in, we're sort of frozen, with no good choices.

Never jamming here, just bet $300-400 and fold to a raise

I did jam, and he folded. Seems like all options suck. Next time, I'll raise bigger on the turn.