Big heart(s) IP vs House LAG

I don't really like it. I think my default line here against a LAG would be to bet flop small, check back turn, and maybe even bluff catch the river. If I am bluffing myself, I still think I would prefer to bet flop small and then bomb the turn, which is the purest brick imaginable.

As played, and given hero's bluffy image, I don't really understand what hands villain is folding river with that you aren't already beating, e.g. 78s. I really wouldn't be shocked if you got called by TT/99 and I could definitely see a good villain having some traps here.

I'll assume his stack is the effective one.

I think this deep with no dead money and ok with the thought of going multiway with the suited AK on the Button, I doubt flatting preflop is horrible? But obviously a 3bet is fine too.

I probably cbet smaller on the flop.

Turn and river seem punty when picking up no equity, especially with what I assume your image is plus the fact he's playing cheezeburger steaks.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Yup, I’m with GG. This is a punt.

The way you beat LAGs is you let them level themselves into bad calls against your range, which you want to be stronger than theirs. You want the LAG to try bluff catching you with something like 99/88/77. But you don’t want to be blasting off with hands that make those call-downs correct!

Another issue here is the sizing. You made it clear with your flop sizing that you are trying to set up a river shove. That means that all of Villain’s big hands could be slowplaying here, in addition to his bluff catchers that could call and win too.

(I do not agree with just calling preflop though. I would 3bet this almost all the time.)

Hmm yea the leveling thing makes sense, thx

Definitely 3bet this on BN. I don't mind the c-bet since we can turn more equity with bdf. Against this player type, I think we can xb turn, since we do have some s/d versus 78, 89, even hands like QT which might float OOP. Curious to know what better hands you believe will fold on the river. If you believe he'll fold 77-99, A5s it might be ok, but could depend on whether he's folding some Jx.

No idea why the thread consensus is that a good player just calls down with any pair because lol yolo, but if that’s what this guy does, then yeah, don’t bluff.

Getting to the river I think we have close to a mandatory jam unless villain is overfolding turn. If he is calling 77-TT on the turn, he will have a hard time calling enough, thus making our jam profitable. Most people are not calling down 77-TT on the river. If we give him JTs+, JJ, 66, 55, 65, QQ, 77-TT, and assume he calls JTs+ and folds all else then we have a profitable bluff on the river. I would actually expect that people are folding Jx on the river more than they are hero calling under pairs.

That said, we have some showdown value on the turn before we choose to bet, some equity vs pairs, and we may be able to bluff catch some rivers with nut-no pair when there are straight draws and other worse high card hands our there, so mainly I would look to check back the turn. You double block missed back doors with two hearts in your hand. Diamonds are your best suit to be bluffing with on the turn because they unblock all missed backdoors. AhKh blocks AJs and KJs though, so it's not absolutely terrible. Spades would not be good because they unblock AJs and KJs. So you're best AK to bluff turn will be AdKd, or AKo with 1 diamond 1 club, or 1 diamond 1 heart. But even better than that for bluffs on the turn are Qx hands like KQ, AQ which block QQ. AA and KK probably 4bet while QQ may not, so blocking QQ is better.

When we have some turn give ups, our bet-bet-jam line is more credible. So I lean towards checking behind turn.

idk man i think you try way too hard vs people you think are good. that said, turn and river likely get overfolded in general and this is probably close to neutral at worst

A guy who usually plays higher and you put him in a 0EV spot? He probably calls high frequency.

Just X turn and beat him by value towning him and bluff catching him. Most “good players” leaks are they call too much and bluff too much.

Because that isn't the thread consensus. The consensus is that having called the flop and turn bets the hands that beat H still call and those that lose do not. Remember the thought on the turn bet; absent a major change it should be if they call the turn they are too likely to call the river here.

If he is the best player at the table, then maybe flat call and don't mind if the blinds call. Then fold to a cbet on this flop. You are not going to make your money playing HU against a decent LAG.

Not 3betting a reg when we have AKs is basically always a mistake. We are definitely making money when we 3bet with premiums against regs.

I agree with you in this case, but it is worth pointing out that the benchmark shouldn’t be whether 3betting makes money (I think we all agree it does) but whether it makes more money than allowing weaker players into the hand and playing postflop. In this case I would be inclined to think it does; but it’s not necessarily obvious, and it’s not always the case.

I suggested flatting to avoid a big pot with a decent reg and invite in fish with maybe weaker aces or kings with your hand under represented.

As played, normally 3-betting and barreling should work against a reg in a 1/3 game, because some people are mostly 3-betting AA/KK. However, with OP's apparent image, it might not work as well.

Grunch:

PRE - 3.5x raise seems a smidge too big. I'd probably make it $30 without a reason to go bigger.

FLOP - c-bet should be smaller, like $20-$25.

Even if we spike an ace or king V could make 2P. We're mostly hoping to fold out his 1P hands on brick run outs or go runner runner to make a flush or Broadway.

TURN - think we should just check back now that we don't pick up any equity.

Betting 75% pot on a brick doesn't accomplish much. He's not folding anything that called flop, except maybe some draws, which we're way ahead of.

RIVER - I don't like barreling off against a player who's used to playing higher stakes and takes a higher variance approach. He's likely to call with 77 or better.

We have plenty of worse hands that make better bluffs with this line. AK has enough showdown value to check back turn and river.

Result:

OK, if homie is showing up with 33 here then I love the shove.

Uhhh...if homey is using an RNG to decide whether or not to call with 33, I hate the shove, because he's snap calling 77+.

I'm wondering why OP is desperately trying to outplay "one of the best players in the room"...was he trying to recreate that bragging scene to Knish in Rounders? 😃