Interesting hands from live streams

Mariano is reg with 35 VPIP 25 PFR over 17k hands.

For me, the most interesting part is when Mariano just calls the 5-bet instead of jamming all-in. If he had shoved, he’d risk his opponents folding their Kings, since going all-in would make it pretty obvious he’s holding Aces.

I think this is a cool idea, and I hope you keep it up even though it hasn't gotten traction.

I hate to dance on the grave of a couple guys taking a $200k loss in a nuts > 2nd nuts = 2nd nuts hand, but I think it's pretty poorly played by both players with KK. I mean, it should go without saying that you should be able to get away from KK pre 1300bbs (650 straddles?) deep where 4 out of the first 5 positions of an 8-handed table VPIP, but here's specifically where they went wrong:

Double M-18 was correct to flat Mariano's cold 4b because there's not enough value for a penultimate raise in-position, and Yang should have followed suit (Mistake #1). There's a good chance flatting wouldn't have saved their stacks--and that's not the purpose of the play--but it is a mistake regardless.

Double M-18 makes an even more wild mistake with his 6b backjam, which completely blows any good will he had built with the 4b flat out of the water.

I'm genuinely not sure what Yang should do facing the backjam with Mariano still to act, both because it's hard to range Double M-18 either in practice or in theory and because I'm usually perfectly polar here, so I'd just fold my bluffs and call my value. Again, his 5b is what got him in this spot. Can't be too bad of an idea to cut your sunk costs and fold 1300bbs/650 straddles deep with action pending.

Mariano played it well, particularly with the 5b flat, though I am pretty confident his 4b is too small and should be at least 3x this deep OOP. It is an interesting idea to size down given he (should be) perfectly linear, but I think 2.5x is a little too cute.

All that being said, what's the source of the H2N stats/hand history? Are those Mariano's online stats or do they somehow have 17k hands on him playing FR live games? If he's somehow running 35/25 in a FR game, I guess that changes things, but it'd be hard to comment on without more specific reads.

https://youtu.be/oqRBh7fQE3Y?si=GV19TO7B...

This is the hand I think

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FWIW I'm not sure discussing live stream hands are that useful, because even the "pros" might have a lot of things going on that we can't easily know. Eg. I've seen clips of Mariano going insane cold 4betting with 43s, and I assume some of that is due to being "on TV" even if he'd say it was live reads or whatever ... and that might affect other peoples play to just never fold KK vs. him when the entire world will see it.

Also HH as a giant image can gtfo. I thought the only good thing about the new site was that HH would be better/easier.

I think analyzing stream hands is limited in some specific ways and should come with caveats, but it's still poker. It's all equity and equity realization and what have you.

Like okay Mariano's cold 4betting range is wider and includes more bluffs than in theory, but he'd have to have a cold 4b range of 10% for me to 100% 5b KK, and it'd have to be over 7% for me to even do it half the time, which are 4 and almost 3 times wider than it should be respectively.

Assuming it's 5% (double what it should be) or lower, I'm going to pure flat KK and only 5b AA for value and a mix of suited Ax as bluffs.

I'm not blaming any of the players for any of the calls made in this hand. Yang's call/fold decision versus the backjam is the only one where whether or not you should continue is even a question, and I could see calling given the insane dynamic.

But I think both Yang's 5b and Double M-18's backjam 6b are pretty clear mistakes.

Again, not that I'm claiming I save any money in this spot. They're both still going broke on both boards that came out.