How close is this spot (Live 1/3)?

this is why you fold 52s pre

It's not fun but we are beating flush draws, combo draws, and overpairs. Think I call.

Is the CO involved in the hand? It doesn’t look like it, so HJ would have to check a set or straight with only 1 player left to act on a wet board super multi-way. I don’t think many players do that.

Either way, I think this is a clear call. And also an even clearer fold pre-flop.

I would fold preflop both times. Even though we have the best position, this hand isn’t super good for finding ways to extract value postflop. That’s true even at the price of a limp, but especially for a raise.

I don’t fault you for betting this flop, but just so you know, there’s actually a case to be made for checking back. A lot of live fish will get this (in my opinion) wrong—they’ll slowplay extremely strong hands like sets or straights but they’ll try to “protect” weaker hands. Here, with 2 pair, I might try to mix in a check. Being able to deceive your opponents or give them a free card is important when you are trying to extract value from 1 pair. I want to see if someone with KQ or something like that turns top pair and we can get 2 streets from them—or alternatively, if we see a bad turn we can save some money.

As played, this is closer than the above posters think it is. At a passive table, I have no problem believing HJ checked a super strong hand for deception and is now springing a trap. I might call anyway but I would not be surprised to lose. It just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me that a loose/passive HJ is suddenly going to play aggressively with a draw, or is going to check an overpair the first time only to go nuts after a big bet comes out. (But again, I might just call needing to see it.)

i wouldnt even complete the small blind with this hand let alone call a $12 raise. lol pot odds is fish logic. in pots like this you want hands like Axs that cooler people, not garbage scs.

as played idk i guess call but it sucks.

Grunch.

I've put myself in this tough spot many times. You're going to get counterfitted a bunch, but I'd still GII.

Side note: I play around the country due to my job and was at PARX in the fall. Nice room. Well run. Good action. I approve 😃

Before I reveal what happened, here's what I was thinking for the two minutes I was thinking about the decision. (And, yes, I generally agree that folding pre, even last to act after the raise to $12, is likely the best play most of the time.)

I figured that the HJ, with only me to act after him (I truthfully can't remember whether the CO was in the hand, but it's about the same), would not check with a strong hand that was subject to being counterfeited on the turn. (This was partly why I bet 85% pot -- because in this limped/raised pot there could be a lot of Aces and Kings and Queens and Jacks with a suited 2, 3, or 5 that could pair on the turn, even with me blocking the 5 and 2.)

So, what would HJ be willing to check that did not need protection? Obviously A4 and 46 and sets are the most obvious. What else could he have that's not a full bluff? Maybe 45 and 56 for a pair and a draw, or maybe 34cc and 45cc and 45cc with a pair and a combo flush/straight draw.

The combos of A4 (4) and 46 (4) along with the sets (1 combo of 22, 1 combo of 55 and 3 combos of 33 for 5 total) [13 total combos] vs. the combos of the pair/draw combos seemed in the moment to be about equal. I discounted a two-club flush draw hand without a straight draw as unlikely, but not impossible with no read.

Any other thoughts about villain's range? (I'm not really considering that I would be felted in the first 15 minutes at the table -- I had plenty more chips in my pocket.)

I'm all for attempting to see a cheap flop on the Button, but 52sooted is just a bit too loose for me (although if we play very well postflop I doubt it is horrendous). Calling the raise is poor due to SPR. A 9way limped pot creates an SPR of 13 which gives us some postflop room to suss out how our hand stacks up. But the raised pot creates an SPR of ~5 where we just don't have the postflop room to suss out stuff and we'll be put to stack committing decisions almost immediately with very few streets of info.

Flop sizing at this SPR is interesting, imo. Most players won't slowplay big hands in a big pot on a drawy board, especially after the preflop raiser checks. So it seems fairly likely that we do have the best hand. However, we are going to see a lotta craptastic runouts and I don't think we really want to play this hand over 3 streets. With that in mind, I think you could argue for an overbet on the flop (to like $90) to setup a PSB shove on non-moronic turns. Any smaller than PSB leaves us with very awkward stacks on the turn (unless we remain multiway). At higher SPRs we could play a lot more cautiously.

Weird play by HJ, but most people don't risk this huge pot checking thru with only 1 or 2 to act behind with a monster (noting the only real monster that doesn't need protection is the A4cc, especially if there is a high hand promo). So this is likely a big draw that he was at first cool with seeing a turn with, or perhaps he just sees us as stabby when checked to and has decided to commit with worse. Doubt I could fold here.

GcluelessNLnoobG

52s is a better raise than a limp (your logic is backwards), calling the raise is terrible.

Flop you have to bet, but this size is bad.

After the raise I think you probably want to fold vs. range, but you are ahead or flipping vs. some hands that might do this.
Unless you have any reads that HJ likes to maniac shove with minimal fold equity.

Would assume most of the weakest draws are betting when it gets to them, so range should be better hands and strong draws. Maybe bare NFD will play this way.

Agree with others that pre is a fold, all day, every day. If you are going to play it, raise.

As played, I sigh fold and kick myself under the table.

Hard to know what to do with no reads on anyone. But, it's a limped pot, and HJ's range could be wide enough to include sets and straights. Sure, he could also have a draw, or 1P + a draw, something like that, but is he really going to check-jam from LP with a bluff?

I dunno. This seems like he was slow-playing something, and once you bet big and action folds back around, he's jamming so he doesn't have to play later streets on bad run-outs.

Somewhat expecting 64 or a set here.

Thanks for the feedback, guys. In answering my own question "how close is this spot" I should be focused on the pre-flop play (fold) rather than whether to call the shove.

As played, I tanked and tried to get a read on villain and ended up folding. I was behind A4 and 64 and sets and even behind 53 and I could not put him on a pure draw or bluff. I did not think my equity was sufficient to blast off for all my chips there.

He showed 2-3dd for a worse two-pair (and I guess a backdoor str8 and flush draw)

Go figure how people will play in live 1/3 games.

Cheers!

Goddam sometimes I hate my own reads.

Honestly, OP (saying this as a Parx 1/3 reg who routinely does $hlt I shouldn't do), without reads, I think you made the correct decision. We could give him every combo of sets, straights, 2P, and 1P + a combo draw, and 1P + a regular draw, and we're not doing great against that range. I think 32 is literally the only hand we have crushed

fold pre if do play hit on straight on flop jam and pray otherwise you can get counterfeits all over.

I'm not sure you understand "pot odds." Your chance of hitting 2 pair or better with your hand is on the order of 20:1. Your pot odds are 5:1. When you add in you won't win every time, your odds are worse.

For the time being, any time you're thinking you have "pot odds," just fold your hand,

Likely good advice.

5-2hh has 36% equity heads-up against AdKd and 20% equity against KK. The problem here is that in a 6- or 7-way hand where the other players all have reasonable hands to have limp-called pre-flop (e.g., suited A-X and K-X, small pocket pairs, and middle suited-connectors), my 5h-2h has more like 5% equity and I need 14% ($9 into a pot of $65) for the call to be break-even.

So, I need to become better at calculating what my pot odds are in a multi-way pot.

The thing is that most people simply don't check behind monsters in late position on drawy boards in multiway pots with lottsa money worth winning in it. The typical LLSNL is scared shitless of draws and will do everything in their power to price them out with a massive bet when given the opportunity. Now it's possible someone in EP could be waiting in the weeds to spring a check/raise with a monster, but it's very unlikely someone with just one player to act behind is.

Gifitsmellsfishyitusuallyis,imoG

TBH, NL is rarely about pot odds on early streets.

The equities you came up with are sorta useless because they assume you're seeing all 5 cards; useful if you're planning to call a shove preflop but not much else.

Even V's distinction of pot odds is a little useless, imo. Yeah, we're not getting great immediate odds, but there are IO so we have to figure if we're going to make up enough on average to make a call worthwhile. Plus we're in position which greatly helps realizing our equity and maximizing our IO, plus even sometimes puts us in a spot where we can steal (won't happen often in a multiway pot, but think of the times where we flop an OESD when there's a flush draw on the flop and it gets HU postflop where we can now rep the flush if it comes in... admittedly quite a large parlay). But, there's also RIO, and most people completely forget to factor that in.

Overall, we shouldn't really be asking ourselves whether we're getting good pot odds preflop, but more whether this hand is likely going to show a profit versus a loss long term against our opponents in this situation. This isn't necessarily an easy question to answer, but in the meantime if we have any doubts we should likely lean to folding.

GcluelesspotoddsnoobG

What plays like this? Flush draws do. He could also have an over pair. He raised with many people in front of him so he likely has something. I would call. I would also not play this hand one thing to know if people are limping and calling open limbs that much you wanna make your opening sizes large. That should help to narrow down the field.