AA in 3bet pot - help withSPR, bet sizing, future street planning
1/3 NL
Eff Stack: $490
Hero: UTG+1 (Ad Ah)
Villain: UTG
8-handed
I've been trying to be more cognizant of stack sizes, SPR, and bet sizing. Particularly looking for help with my sizing in this hand. Other thoughts welcome, of course!
I'll reveal the Turn after getting feedback on the flop.
UTG Villain: Young, middle eastern(?) guy. Loose & splashy, on the aggressive side of the spectrum, but not a maniac. He was having a swingy session at a pretty wild table. Earlier in the session he was willing to peel a flop with only a non-nutted backdoor draw in a 3 bet pot. Later he accidentally exposed a bluff on the river in a medium sized pot. Showed down hands like 85o (his declared "favorite hand"), K8s, A5o, JTo, Q4s (RFI UTG+1) - all either RFI, calling opens, or calling 3 bets. Willing to cold call 3 bets with marginal hands, etc.
My image is tight. I have 3bet a couple times in the couple hours we've been playing together, taken a pot down after cbetting, and also doubled up a mid-stack (who flopped a set) after I was called in 3 spots pre-flop and flopped TPTK. Earlier in the session he said I needed to "play more hands" after everyone folded to my raise over a few limpers.
Pre-flop ($4): 8 handed
UTG 20, Hero UTG+1 3-bets to 60 w/ AdAh, everyone else folds, UTG quickly calls
Flop: ($118, SPR 3.6) 8s 6d 2d
UTG checks, Hero ? (stack is ~$430)
Difficult to narrow V's range here as I've seen him open and flat 3bets quite wide, even to the tighter players at the table. Removed AA, KK from his range, dunno if he'd 4bet AK, QQ, JJ...If he's thinking about my range, I'd guess he'd assume I have AA-QQ, AK. He might not know it but I would 3bet him in this spot w/ AQ, JJ & TT since he can open quite wide even UTG.
With an SPR of 3.6 and with this type of Villain am I just looking to size it so I can get it in ASAP? Or over 3 streets depending on runout? I can't see folding to a c/r to this Villain as he could put me on AK and play it fast if he has QQ-TT or a draw. Of course he could have any of the sets in his range and even 86s for 2 pair. I know he views me as tight, but unsure if he views me as scared money.
Thoughts? Thanks in advance!
8 Replies
Bet. I'd go ~$50 and I'm not folding if he raises. Heck, vs. this guy, I might go $45 and hope it induces a raise, and I hate down-betting.
Against this clown, I think just betting $100 on the flop followed by a turn shove is muy bueno. I definitely want the money going in by the turn, given how he loves to chase...and obviously won't call a river shove if he misses.
I'd only downbet if he'd peel with crap for $50 that he'll fold for $100.
Thanks for replying Java, maybe I should have put more of the action in this hand to get some notes on it from others...
Here are the next actions and questions about the T in the spoiler - thanks!
Spoiler
1/3 NL
Eff Stack: $490
Hero: AdAh
UTG rfi 20, Hero UTG + 1 3 bets to 60, UTG calls
FLOP: 8s 6d 2d (118 in pot, 430 behind)
UTG checks, Hero bets 60, UTG calls
TURN: 8s 6d 2d Td (238 in pot, 370 behind)
UTG checks, Hero ??
OK, so diamonds got there & I hold the Ad. I could play it conservatively and check T, call river (or raise a 4th diamond) or bet river for value if checked to. If I bet here, I was unsure/confused at the sizing and the plan for river or if I get c/r.
What's V range? Lots of 1 pair hands that may have peeled the flop, he may even peel 2 overs on the flop if one is big diamond. 79 got there. 85 is his "favorite hand." Any pocket pair QQ and under, although sometimes 4bets QQ PF perhaps. He may c/r sets on the flop, may c/r some FD, may c/r OESD, may c/r QQ-99 on the flop at some frequency.
I probably bet 1/3 pot and go bet-bet-bet. No reason to try anything fancy with this guy. If he's got 2P+, we'll find out when he check-raises.
I bet again -- probably $100 -- and call a jam, especially if you think he raises all of those hands in your spoiler.
This is a board texture where you can "range bet" small around $30-40 or bet relatively large $80-$100. If you bet small against this LAGish type, I believe you should commit to calling a check-raise The advantage of a large bet is it sets-up an SPR of around 1 on the turn, so you can just bet-shove (or maybe not shove a diamond since you have Ad and can check-back and bluff-catch if need be on the river).
The problem with the large bet is your tight image and the fact that your hand is somewhat face-up---in which case you hope villain just has a worse pair and/or draw that he doesn't have the discipline to fold.
For this reason, I tend to favour the smaller bet, which if called will leave you with a SPR of around 2.5 on turn, which means you can bet around 60% on both turn and river, depending on the run-out (there's definitely scope for checking a number of turns or betting smaller than 60% on a diamond etc.).
Thanks for the comments so far! Appreciate the thoughts on the future streets and thought process on c-betting small VS large and how that impacts the future streets.
So after c-betting 1/2 pot on the flop and V calling, the turn brought a 3rd diamond and completes the one OESD. Some of my thoughts on that are in the above spoiler. I'm holding the Ad and have 370 behind in a 238 pot....
1/3 NL
Eff Stack: $490
Hero: AdAh
PRE-FLOP: UTG rfi 20, Hero UTG + 1 3 bets to 60, UTG calls
FLOP: 8s 6d 2d (118 in pot, 430 behind)
UTG checks, Hero bets 60, UTG calls
TURN: 8s 6d 2d Td (238 in pot, 370 behind)
UTG checks, Hero bets 120, UTG c/r all in to 370.
Should I be checking this turn, bet/folding, or bet/calling?
I have the NFD if I'm behind. I have to call 250 into 728, so I need to be good, or get there if I'm behind ~26% of the time, if my math is correct.
If I am behind and need to hit my flush, I have ~18% EV, so does that mean he needs to be shoving worse 8% of the time to break even? Is that thinking about this right?
Thanks!
I'm not sure you even need math vs a player like this. You need to know what he's been check/raising with and what range you put him on. I mean, it seems he can have Kd8c, XdXd, T8, Ax8d, etc. You know better than we do. From the description you gave, unless he never check/raises a bluff or semi-bluff, I'm calling this guy.
