$1/2 very specific question w/ nuts and a soul read
$1/2 8 handed. Very standard loose passive table, actually maybe looser and more passive than normal.
V MABG ~$250 UTG he’s a bad reg. Plays loose passive, bad and mubsy. Definitely a player to target.
H MAWG ~$350 BTN. I don’t think V has any thoughts on H. Maybe I’m wrong here but I think V is just playing his hand.
OTTH
H BTN straddles to $5. Nobody at the table will exploit or even adjust.
Blinds fold. V calls. Rando in MP calls. H checks his option with 5d4h.
Flop $15
3s6h7s
V goes $10, rando calls, H goes $35. V calls. Rando folds. V has flush draws and 2p here almost exclusively. Should have 73 but can have all the 67 combos. He would 3b sets certainly. Maybe has some small % of small over pairs 8-T.
Turn $105
3s6h7s 9s
V checks. With his check V has like 80-90% 2p and maybe 5-10% flush and maybe 5% small over pairs. H has like 80% against this range. As H isn’t afraid of flush but V surely is, does this make the turn a check? Checking will tell V H doesn’t have a flush in his mind and I would expect him to value bet his 2p OTR unless another spade comes. However I think V folds OTT if I breathe on the pot. H is dying to check back the turn here.
Is this line idiotic or should I just make a big hand and bet it?
Somehow this had me in a weird spot.
7 Replies
I'm not an expert but I'm replying to get the ball rolling. It seems like Villain could have a lot here. Flush, two pair, maybe he hit a bigger straight with a 8 5 or even 10 8. Yes players will draw to four outs in this situation.
You call this a weird spot I would call this a tough spot. A bet could cause Villain to fold. Hero could also be betting into a stronger hand. So many players will limp from any position with any two suited cards. A check gives a free card, and its possible the dealer could hit a better hand (full house, four flush or four straight on the board).
I worry about being check raised on the turn. What do you think the villain has if he check raises? Is it always a flush? could he be be bluffing a draw?
I like the check. This will indicate to Villain your afraid of a flush and could induce a bluff. I would call any reasonable size bet here, and bet if checked to.
I would bet the turn for small here, maybe $45. There are so many bad rivers (4, 5, 8, T, any spade, any board pair) and you don't want to miss out on value from two pair. When Villain has a flush, he will raise against the small bet and you can comfortably fold a hand that is drawing dead.
Checking back makes sense to me if Villain is likely to bluff the river or bluff check/raise the turn but I don't think that is the case here. I think betting small will win you more money from two pair than checking.
Just bet turn small, if he has 2p he might try to fill up or think he’s ahead. I understand your read but you need to extract.
I raise a little bigger on the flop. On turn, go half pot. If he folds, he folds.
bigger flop. 1/2 pot on turn, jam river.
I would raise bigger on the flop.
With reads on the turn I bet small enough that he calls two pair but big enough if he raises it's because he has a flush, you are mainly extracting value from two pair or sets that want to call and also "protecting" hands like 7x6s that have a lot of outs.
Getting folds is fine and you shouldn't consider it bad, as you are way more likely to get calls on the turn with worse than on the river.
I would go 65$ on the turn, and fold to any re-raise. If he calls I don't think we can possibly have another bullet, it's not like your hand will be getting any better. I also think you are right if you do not bet the turn he will and we have to fold. Almost a game of chicken here. If he does call we tank the river and just check fold to any raise over 1/4 pot.
