A set of TT's
1/3 NL 8 handed.
The BB is a 25 ish, hoodie wearing, pot smoking lag. This is what I have gathered in just 1 hour of play. He seems to play decently(maybe) post flop. He has 3 barrel bluffed with K high(missed straight draw) and put in a good size bluff(pot size bet) on the turn after the flop was checked with air and showed. I am the effective stack with 400.
I raise from the LJ to 15 with TsTc after an UTG limper, folded to the BB who calls and the limper calls.
(45 in pot) Th3c5h...It's checked to me and I bet 25, the BB calls and the UTG folds.
(95 in pot) Th3c5hQh...He checks. I check.
I feel like he would CR a flush draw on the flop but I don't know for certain. I have all the tens. I might be able to induce him into river bluff. I lose value from a Q. I avoid a CR if he does have the flush. Maybe he will call a river bet with a hand he would have folded on the turn.
(95 in pot) Th3c5hQh5c......He checks. I decide to over bet the river to 125 hoping he'll think I am bluffing and make a hero call. Maybe he has a 5 but he probably would have bet it.
Would you have bet the turn?
Would you bet smaller to induce a call on the river?
I've been raising to 15 after a single limper. Is this correct?
15 Replies
I think you played it well.
River bet small to induce if he's a LAG. Do 25 again.
Bet 45 or 50 on the turn, if you get check raised you’ll still be getting the odds to boat up if he has indeed hit the flush.. (unless he jams but I’d expect a CR to be to around 150 or so by a made flush, you can still call an all in if you don’t believe)
You flopped top set against someone splashy and you haven’t set it up to get the stacks in on the river - aim should be to get maximum value when we hit strong hands
I agree with betting 50 on the turn. If the villain has the flush and calls, you've given yourself pot odds to see another card. If the villain has a flush draw, he's not getting odds to call. If he has worse than that, you're not getting anything further. The river bet is bad. The villain is never going to fold a flush and never going to call a hand worse than yours. You put a lot of money at risk for no potential gain.
imo not betting turn to avoid a check raise is wrong, value bet and and deal with the c/r if/when it happens. Against live 1/3 players I go bet/bet/bet here.
I agree with betting 50 on the turn. If the villain has the flush and calls, you've given yourself pot odds to see another card. If the villain has a flush draw, he's not getting odds to call. If he has worse than that, you're not getting anything further. The river bet is bad. The villain is never going to fold a flush and never going to call a hand worse than yours. You put a lot of money at risk for no potential gain.
H rivered a full house
I would bet a little less than pot on the river. Overbet looks like what you have set scared of the 3-flush checked the turn and now boated up.
I think the big mistake here was not betting turn. Agreed with others that around 1/2 pot is good.
As played I like a smaller river bet, like 1/3-1/2 pot. V seems pretty weak so you want some of their weak made hands to call to bluff catch
unless you have shown a bluff in the past your river bet is not getting called. source: experience.
Agree with the others: I bet the turn. As played, I bet smaller on the river: $25 - $50.
I just overlimp the LJ but that's my style.
SPR is 8.5 and board is drawy. Think I'd lean to a large flop bet to make stacks that much more trivial to play for by the river.
I'm fine with the turn checkback. If he has a pair, it's mostly likely now 3rd pair, which is going to have a hard time continuing. If he had a flush draw, he's now ahead. There are some busted draws that we can bluffcatch against UI.
Against an aggrotard who likely has nothing much given the action, I think I would mostly attempt to induce. So I'd probably bet like stoopid small, like $25, and see if that causes him to spazz.
ETA: Kinda surprised everyone is betting the turn. What are we getting value for 3 postflop streets with when it is very unlikely he has a Q or a T?
GcluelessNLnoobG
I’m on board with betting the turn but AP I think a polarizing overbet on the river is good. I like to do this with a monster when my line looks bluffy. H’s line of cbet flop check turn followed by a river bet when checked to IP on a seemingly innocuous board pairing 5 is very bluffy. And a young dude in a hoodie seems like the type that would like to hero call.
Grunch:
I'd barrel turn, for around half pot. His range isn't always and only flush draws. He can have middling pairs, straight draws, un-paired over-cards, etc. He could have slow-played 2P or a set on the flop, and he could have been planning to check-raise turn with these hands. He will still call with worse value sometimes.
I wouldn't over-bet the river. He looks pretty weak when he checks every street, and likely would have donked the river with value when we check back turn. I'd bet small, like half pot. That's going to look more bluffy than an over-bet.
