Maximum Extraction, Set vs Nit
The game is 9-handed 1/3 NLH. Villain is a senior citizen, tight-passive, with the effective stack of $200.
Pre-Flop ($4)
One limper.
Hero raises to $15 with 3♦ 3♣ in MP.
Villain calls.
Everyone else folds.
Flop ($34) K♣ 3♥ 8♠
Hero bets $20.
Villain immediately raises to $40.
Hero???
Questions:
- 1. What is villain's range?
- 2. Given that range, what line and on which streets should Hero pursue value? For how much?
I'll put my thinking in the spoiler. Perhaps share your thoughts before reading it?
Spoiler
RANGE: Given the speed of villain's raise and general history, bluffs are unlikely and there are no draws. Thus villain's range is mostly top pair or something like JJ ("Gotta find our where I'm at"). It is extremely difficult for any normal player to instaraise with 88 or KK or AA, some of which even tight-passives would have reraised preflop.
MAX EV LINE: Villain's range is not that strong and thus way too likely to fold to full-stack pressure. Given the dry & static board texture, I don't need to rush to put in the money. On the other hand, I'm OOP. I think the optimal line is to call the flop raise, then bet $30-$40 on both the turn and the river and forget about playing for stacks. The reason for that small sizing is that once I call the flop raise, Villain knows I have something non-terrible.
