76s on the Button, Short-Stacked, Flopped a S/BDF Draw (Hand from the Archive)
In Hands from the Archive, I repost hands on 2+2 from over ten years ago, editing them for concision and clarity (e.g. pot sizes) but staying faithful to the OP’s given reads. After five days, I’ll post results if available and give a link to the original post.
5/10. Table is the second of the double-chained, must-moved feeder games to six main ones. Players are rotating in and out rapidly.
V1 (1,500) is mostly TAG but tendency to overvalue hands.
V2 (1,500) is “a seemingly-good LAG.”
Hero (850) has bought-in short.
OTTH
V1 in the UTG limps. V2 in the CO raises to 40. Hero on the Button calls with 7c6c? Hero calls.
Flop (135): Qc8d5h
V1 checks. V2 bets 120. Hero tank calls. UTG raises to 435. CO tank-shoves. Hero goes into the tank. Hero?
4 Replies
"Mostly TAG"s were l-c UTG, pf, at 5/10? Even 10 years ago? Aside, you've H calling twice pf, and I think it should be "V1 calls" instead. Anyway, if there's a set, our 8-out draw isn't doing so good. At least they should be clean.
It's a math question: we need 690 more to win V2's all-in (850 to us) and V1's anticipated call (another 850) + our 160 of dead money. So 690 to 1860. We need 27% or better equity to call.
I give V1 88/55. V2, I have no idea, but thought non-set PPs JJ-66 were a start, mixed with various TP-kicker combos. Against that range, we're around 27% per holdem lab. (The free version won't let me share).
I wouldn't have guessed our call was actually close to 0EV, if V1 calls, and vs 1 having a set. Hopefully V2 isn't holding our outs, e.g. Q9s, 44, 99.
Very questionable preflop cold call and call on the flop. Judging from this hand, we should've folded pre and moved to a 1/3 or juicy 2/5 game.
From my math (which I'm bad at), it's $720 to win $1540 or 2.14:1, ie 32% equity. We have 28% if one guy has a set, 32% if one has 2 pair. Heads up against a top pair / overpair heavy range we are 41% which surprises me but I guess the backdoors add up.
I don't mind pre-flop, but as played, I raise the "seemingly LAG" player. V1 limp/called pre and has checked, so he shouldn't be too strong unless he's trapping, and V2 is a LAG, so could have a lot of hands that do not want pressure, especially if we have a tight image.
If I'm not raising in this spot, I fold pre or fold now.
Calling on the BTN with middling suited connectors when short-stacked is a serious leak, especially if you won't have enough money (or the right opponents) post-flop to win the hand by bluffing.
