Raise-Check-Blast Line From a Spazzy Fish

The fact that your read is that he's basically a tricky fish makes it really hard to range him. The only bluffs on the flop that make sense are J9 and 76, unless you think he's tricky enough to c/r with a hand like QJ with a BDFD...but then he's turning his showdown value on the river into a bluff(!?)

OTOH, while it's hard to find his bluffs, you're obviously not blocking any of his bluffs. In addition, given the checked turn, his less than a psb on the river, and the fact that KK must be in your river defending range and you beat some of his value probably makes this a call.

FWIW, I didn't factor in the speech play, since I don't put much stock in behavioral/speech tells with opponents I don't know very well, especially if the goal is to assess an opponent's "comfort level."

I don't buy that a button-clicking V flopped 2P or a set, didn't donk in a multi-way pot, only check raised 3x when the other opponent called your small bet, and then checks turn when he fills up. More likely he has 8x or was open ended with J9, rivered top pair, and doesn't know if he's betting for value or bluffing. Maybe he caught some piece of the board that picked up a diamond draw on the turn, like A5dd.

We beat all his 2P hands like J8, and all his bluffs. We lose to trips or better, but it's hard for me to credit him with that sort of value when he checks turn. I'd be more worried that he was out of line with Q9 on the flop and caught the miracle river card.

The quick bet on the river looks a lot like J9 that was bluffing and is now relieved to make top pair but doesn't stop to think about his line and what the best play is when he now has some good showdown value.

Your speech sounds like you're thinking of folding. If he was strong, I would think he wouldn't want to say anything, for fear of giving away signs of strength. It sounds like he's trying to sound strong, which makes me think he's weak, possibly realizing he's beat and now regretting his bet.

I'd call.

Nothing in the reads indicates he would get out of line with a x/r into 2 players. So I think the worst he has on the flop is a decent
draw (like OESD with BDFD) or pair + BD draws, like 98hh. There are 2p and sets also though he probably raises TT and maybe 88 pre right?

But which of those hands check the turn? The hands that didn't improve (straight draws, middle pair, non-d BDFDs, counterfeited 85). I think boats keep betting to extract from your over pairs. His table talk supports this, though it also suggests he could have Tx.

So it depends how much Tx vs one-pair and/or busted draws he has based on his preflop ranges. But your read suggests he is a "bet size = hand strength" player and you didn't mention him bluffing or stabbing, so if you're confident in that read, it's a fold, but vs an unknown button clicker it's closer

Add 97 to the combos V shouldn't have, but will here. This:

Coupled with a 2/3 river bet, makes me think V can beat Kings up. Has V bluffed for this sizing before?

X-r flop, x turn (vs continue betting on a board pair), makes me think draw, and a healthy dose of button-clicking. Rainbow flop, so the draw's probably a SD & depending on how aggro, an OE. Maybe pair + gutter. 76 can do this, but so can J9/97. 97 would be bad, obv. Then there's T9/JT/T8.

I agree that this V, this deep, probably can't take the risk of the turn going x-x like it did. Hard to get stacks with 188 in pot and still 340 back, if they don't bet turn. So boating then, is probably out.

We need to be right...29% of the time? I was on Team Fold, but I think I might be on calling here.

Thanks, everyone, for the detailed responses. Perhaps it is not as straightforward a spot as I originally thought...

Yes, I believe V may have all combos of 97 (suited and offsuit) and all combos of T8 (suited and offsuit) plus probably 85s (counterfeit two pair) and T5s. I also think it's very possibly that he check-raises the flop small with top pair. In-game I discounted a lot of second pair-type hands as I previously saw him donk flop for small with second pair. He has not been caught bluffing thus far.

Does anyone else see low-stakes fish trap full houses (and even trips) all the time? I think these players will sometimes auto-check nutted hands because (1.) they aren't used to playing deep and aren't committed to getting all of the money in; (2.) they probably aren't ranging me on mostly overpairs; and (3.) they just love playing tricky.

Going to share one more HH from V that I did not include in the OP because it was getting pretty long and I wasn't involved.

Straddled pot. Older Fish opens to $12 over $4 straddle. Bro from OP cold calls. V 3bets the small blind to $27 and both Older Fish and Bro call. V checks dark. Flop of K74cc checks around. Turn is a brick. V bets $50, Older Fish shoves for $150, Bro folds, and V snaps it off and fastrolls AA. Older Fish shows KJcc and bricks.

I dunno man. If he's going to x/r flop with 97, I'd think he'd barrel turn, not check. But he sounds like he might be playing backwards, doing the opposite of whatever it looks like he's doing.

I still think we're too high up in our range to fold to this guy. If he's got it, he's just getting my money.

This is a tough one. I probably sigh-fold, but I don't mind a call. It just seems as if everything beats us and his demeanor does not seem weak -- I doubt he's going "strong = weak, " but I don't know him well enough 😉

Reveal:

think you can bet turn small

Your point 1 in your reply to me, made me think quite a bit. We know that, with big value, we need to bet on earlier streets to build a pot and help induce a V to stack off, but poorer players don't. Poorer players don't do a lot of things they "should". They love slowplaying, even if it means having to make some ridiculously polar shove on the river.

I was thinking call after combo counting. There just aren't many draws that really improved and I was thinking V was still drawing. Plus, I tend to be a station. I'm wondering if they had JT now. You didn't ask if they "rivered" a boat. Agreed that it likely wasn't a bluff, given follow-on comments by V.

There was a comment recently re: cultural traits where a smile from a Philippines-ancestry player often meant "X" vs a player of other ancestry. Naturally, I can't find the post now. But population traits and tendencies can be useful if we've nothing else, and are stuck about what to do.

Thanks for posting the hand.

With an overpair on the flop vs. two other opponents in a hand that began 200BB effective, should we really be thinking about how to play for stacks?

I think he is talking about the hand from V's perspective. Many posters here believe that V would not have checked the turn with trips-plus, but my contention was that fish often slowplay these spots, prioritizing playing tricky when they should be going for stacks. Nh was agreeing with me.

Thanks. I was wondering about the turn check. I think it's easier to fold to river aggression after betting the turn because we get to the river with more nuts in range. Realistically I don't think I am ever checking the turn back with AT+.

I found the post. It's from user pnut007z. I remembered reading it at the time, but didn't bother to look for it until you brought it up. I actually hoped that he would comment on this thread himself, haha. I don't put a TON of stock into ethnicity-based reads, but his post certainly gives credence to the idea that V had it here.