NL1/2: QQ vs all-in 4bet pre by weirdish player (175BB deep)
[hand_history]
NL1/2 - 8 players
effective stacks 175BB
Villain (HJ)
Hero (BTN)
Pre Flop: (pot 1.5) Hero has Q♣ Q♦
1 limper, everyone else folds, HJ raises to 7.5BB, Hero raises to 22.5BB, BB cold calls, limper folds, HJ raises raises all-in to 175BB, Hero?
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Villain was talking all evening some slightly crazy stuff (and possibly annoying some of the other players). I saw him making slightly odd moves before but rather in smaller pots. So I’m not sure he’s a maniac or its part of his strategy. For example, earlier he raised similarly big with T8s and called my 3bet but folded to my Cbet. I did not observe him risking his whole stack before. Generally, I can't remember anyone in this casino going all-in pre (100BB+) with less than AK. Against a range, KK+, AK I would not get the odds to call against such a huge raise but it really sucks to fold QQ against this guy.
8 Replies
If his 4-bet shove range is QQ+/AKs/AKo, you're a 60-40 dog, so this seems like a pretty trivial fold, even with the BB's money now in the pot.
Would likely depend a lot on how much I've 3bet him, how much I'm up or down, how much I want to flip, and any reads.
Esp. worthy of note if you think he leaves (or plays differently) if he wins and doubles up, or if you think you'll tilt if you lose.
I think it's possible for you to be very close to breakeven (even slightly winning) vs. range (you need 43.6% and even your range is 40%) but somewhat unlikely for you to be significantly in front.
People are way more likely to shove AK than AA here, and KK is less likely to shove and also way more likely to think about what to do.
Vs. a weighted range of all AK and 50% AA and 75% KK you are 44%.
So if you want to call, then shrug and call.
Yeh, people don't go 4bet shove 100bb+ with JJ or bluffs normally in your room (or anywhere at 1-2) ... but how many in your room are raising to 7.5bb with T8s, and esp. calling 3bets with it?
I just fold. I need reads that the 4bet range deviates from the population to call off 100bb+ with QQ or AK. Being irritating is well within the population norm, so no strat change is required.
Also 175bb>100bb, I mean sure 'no duh' but I think it makes enough of a difference to tighten up compared with 100bb.
If you truly believe his 4-bet jamming range is AK/KK+ then fold. If you think it contains at least one other holding then call. Based on description I would favour the latter.
Thanks guys for your opinions. It seems close and very much dependent on our assumptions on villain. Some players in the pool may even only sometimes shove this deep with AK in which case it would be a clear fold but if villain is wider than AK,QQ+ then it's a call.
Spoiler
In game I called, villain showed KK and I lost 175 BB :-(
There is a line of thinking, AA wouldn't shove for this much if they think it thru. But AK wants to see all 5 cards and maximize fold equity, so shove makes sense. Then to protect your AK shoves, and guard against action killing A on the flop, you shove some KK too. So a "thinking" villain may have range AK, KK.
But in reality, many players are content to just call the 3b with AK and see what the flop brings before investing their stack. Not sure what's up with this villain but they do seem to have some methods to their madness
Don't know how everyone else feels, but I'd rather jam or call off a jam with AKs than QQ.
The simplistic way to think of this that unless you think the villain is going to do this with TT, it is a fold with QQ.
