Set Facing CRAI From Rec OTT

JJ goes from a clear call pre-flop in a time game to mostly folding in a high rake game, 100BBs deep following a x5 raise and a call.

In fact, the solver folds 2/3 of the time and splits the remainder between calling and 3-betting.

I don't think you can fold here. The price is too good. You have to call $190 to win what will be a pot of $677, so you need 28% equity. You have 23% equity against straights.

QQ and KK are scary because you are basically dead against those hands, but the fact that Villain has plenty of potential value combos that you are crushing (88, KQ, KJ) more than makes up for that.

Nothing about Villain's description or line makes me think this is always a hand that is beating JJ and there are plenty of hands you are way ahead of. I don't even think you can rule out something awful like AA or AK.

Grunch:

PRE - why you no 3B with JJ??? I'd be 3B'ing that all day, to get this heads up. If our raises aren't getting enough folds, good, raise even bigger!

FLOP - Ugh. I want to bet for value with middle set, on a somewhat draw-heavy board, but with three opponents checking to us, I might just check this back. If we're going to bet, I guess we should just bet small, 1/3 pot or less. Betting $35 seems too big here.

TURN - If we checked back or bet small on the flop, I'd feel more inclined to bet here, for around 1/2 pot. Since we bet somewhat large on the flop, I really want to check back now, so we can bluff-catch the river.

As played, it looks like we're getting over 2.5 to 1 on a call. I don't think I'm good enough to fold a set here, even on such a bad board, against the as-described V.

Doubtful V slow-plays T9 on the flop, with the LJ left to act, but then decides to check-jam turn. Ditto for QQ. Like, why is he suddenly raising with QQ or T9 NOW? If he has KK or AT, nice hand, good game. I think I'd be putting him on a lot of AA/AK/KQ.

I sigh-call, and sleep fine that night.

Wtf are you talking about? The solver obviously does not understand live 1/3 games. Fold JJ to a standard raise and call. That would be insane? The solver would have you playing practically no hands! It obviously is way overestimating both villain's ranges.

I'm sure after the asteroid hit many of the original dinosaurs thought, "Of course the sun will return and the plants will start growing again."

OTOH, as you know, dinosaurs had pea brains.

Definitely 3bet pre. I like the flop bet. Giving a free card to three players, one of whom very well has 9x or Tx, would be a disaster. Betting the flop targets two pair, top pair, and the straight draws.

My instinct was to fold the river, because your typical loose passive shoves the turn only with the goods. But as the others write, the pot odds are in fact just too good to fold.

Results:

I ended up calling - river was 9♥ and Villain flips over... T♦T♣

And so do people who blindly follow solver output.

润色版本

I think it's a fold. The UTG bet 5BB, which usually includes top-range hands like AA, KK, QQ, and Set vs set situations are also possible. This flop looks very dangerous
You are losing to 14 combinations and winning against 6 combinations. I think it should be a fold.

Depends on the player and table. Some people may be opening 5x their entire range.

Set over set is much worse for you, as you have 1 out rather than 10 outs against a straight.

Damn, unlucky. Kind of a cool play from Villain. I don’t think you are gonna see many bluffs in this spot. His hand actually makes some sense though, both as a hand that a rec might find as a bluff (“I had the blocker!”) and a hand that a rec will always check/call on flop (whereas QQ, KK, and T9 are all more likely to bet out themselves or XR).

My general heuristic in spots like this is that if you are getting a good price and are beating value, you should call. Not everybody is going to have bluffs here, but you will see weird stuff sometimes. If you create a range for your opponent that includes some weird stuff, some worse value, and the better hands, you will see that you have a pot odds call.

IME anything less than a 5x raise at 1/3 live will get you 4+ callers and/or get squeezed all day - especially on a Saturday night

LOL at folding pre. That's insane. 3bet is better than call, but I get the call. Rest of the hand is fine. Can never fold to this guy on the turn.

Do you realize that Encore has the highest rake of any legitimate casino on the East Coast, if not actually across the US?

It's fine to 3-bet. Calling is a HUGE leak here when it's only 100BB effective vs. the UTG raiser.

I know I made clear in my initial post that "playing vs folding" was totally dependent on rake vs time, but here we are.

Yeah, I was going to comment on your post as well before I thought about this. If ever there is a venue at which to play 3bet or fold pre, it's Encore Boston Harbor. 10% rake up to $10 plus $2 for promos. Puke.

Still, I don't think I'm folding JJ to a single raise pre in most spots, so I think I would always 3bet in OP's spot (especially with the LJ's dead money). If that loses EV, so be it.

So, if you play at the Encore, you 3bet or fold every hand that is raised in front of you by someone with 100bb?

FYQ

Answer: Pretty much, save for the very infrequent flat depending on the table.

You could 3! or call preflop in this situation. Solvers don't understand live 1/3 games. Not folding a lot of what they say to fold assuming the 5x open and call represent huge strength. 3! or fold is a mistake here. For example, I would flat call 22-99 pretty much always here.