Good spot for a river bluff?
1/3 @ MGM National Harbor
My opponent this hand is a middle aged asian man that has been playing more than 50% of his hands. Most of the other players at the table are also trying to get hands heads up with him. He's sitting immediately to my right, so I had a great seat for the night.
He limps from UTG+1, with a stack of $300 (he's the effective stack)
I raise next to act with A♥Q♥
Everyone else folds, and limper calls. So heads up to the flop
Flop ($40) T♣8♣3♥
He checks to me, and I c-bet for $20
His range is so wide that I think he will be inclined to call a bet with too many hands, plus I still have my overs and backdoors
He calls $20
Turn ($75) T♣8♣3♥5♣
He checks to me, and I had a hard time deciding on what to do here. I think my hand may still be the best and if I bet again, he may only call me with better at this point.
The other idea I had here was, if he had any flushes or good pairs he would bet the river if I check the turn. So a river bluff may be a better option for me if he checks.
So I check back
River ($75) T♣8♣3♥5♣K♣
He checks to me again
At this point I think he has either a very weak pair, like third or below, or occasionally a very weak flush. I think it's very rare that I run into a strong hand here. At the same time, I don't think I win at showdown a lot of the time either. So I'm trying to bluff a size that he will fold basically everything but a decent flush to.
I bet $50
So what do you think, can I ever be good by checking back the river? Should I just keep barreling turn?
I won't spoil but I will say that my opponent did go into the tank for a solid 3 minutes.
6 Replies
Problems with bluffing this river :
- you unblock clubs
- V would expect you to barrel turn with a big club draw
I don’t think V is folding the 2 of clubs here
He may fold a pair with no club but 🤷🏻♂️
Check back on turn is good.
Since he's playing 50% of his hands, it would be helpful to have any reads about his post-flop play. You ranged him, but you don't say much about how he plays or what his later street tendencies are.
Otherwise, how are we supposed to know whether he can be bluffed out on this river?
Explain that he considered for 3 minutes, which means that he probably won K.Or there is a 2♣️
I like it, but I might have gone ahead and bet the turn -- it makes a river bluff more believable, too.
Would be nice to know how sticky he is.
I dont usually cbet against fish
