1/3 - AKs facing 5B jam, >400bb deep
1/3, $100-$500 BI, 9 handed, Parx Philly, 10% rake up to $5, plus $2 drop for promotions.
High hand promo is currently $1k every 1/2 hour, and the bad beat jackpot is over $200k, so the games are playing pretty loose pre.
V is a 30-something BG, in the SB, with a little over $1400. Hasn't played very many hands since hero sat down about an hour ago.
Hero is early 50's WG, on the BTN, with around $1245, after sitting down with $500. Playing somewhat aggro, basically raise or fold from most positions, especially from LP, but not gotten caught bluffing recently, and haven't shown down any ridiculous hands. No reason for V to think hero is getting out of line, at least not very often. Hero should have a winning image, given that we're up almost $750 since we sat down.
OTTH:
2 limps to hero who raises to $25 with AKs. SB immediately 3B's to $75. Hero thinks about 10-15 seconds, and 4B's to $300. V thinks about it maybe 5 seconds, then jams.
Hero?
FWIW - the $75 3B seemed a little small to me, from OOP, and something about the way V bet made me think he wasn't all that strong. We're getting almost 1.65 to 1 on a call (a bit over $900 to call, with $1555 in the pot, before the rake).
My reasoning for 4B'ing to $300 was that we're insanely deep, and like I said, I didn't think he was all that strong, based on his raise size, and the way he insta-3B. Obviously I didn't expect him to 5B-jam for another $900 and change, but here we are.
I think V is probably 5B jamming QQ+/AK, but he could be wider, possibly, because of the high hand promotion, and because maybe he thinks hero is just FOS, given hero's raising frequency, especially from LP.
Is this always a fold, always a call, or a mix based on having some better reads?
I would fold, and also think about this a little more:
"FWIW - the $75 3B seemed a little small to me, from OOP, and something about the way V bet made me think he wasn't all that strong. We're getting almost 1.65 to 1 on a call (a bit over $900 to call, with $1555 in the pot, before the rake)."
It may have seemed small, and weak, but in OP your read was that V hasn't played much in the hour (30 hands) at the table.
A 100-big-blind decision was made on this read.
You started 400BB deep against someone who's been playing snug, and now he 5-bet shoves.
It's gonna be mostly AA with a smattering of KK/AKs., and I'm going to favor population reads rather than try to assess possible subtle sizing/timing/behavioral tells.
Fold.
I think this 4bet sizing is way too big. 4x in position is gigantic for a 4bet. I understand you guys are deep, but 2.5x is standard for a 4bet IP, so even $225 would be sizing up. The giant Iso size makes this hand play a bit shallower too.
I don't think $1/$3 players typically 5bet jam AKo for 400bb. I don't even know that I would expect to see QQ do this. Maybe he is reading something into your sizing though, and views this as a jam or fold spot?
If you truly think Villain can have AK and QQ, you should call here. AKs has 42% equity against QQ+ AK. You only need 38% equity to profitably call here.
Personally, I don't buy his range is that wide so I would fold.
You don't have a read or HH to share for V and yet he tripled up in ~1 hour at the table?
I don't like the iso- size and I don't like the 4b size. Are you 4betting to this size with AA and KK? IMO, these sizes read as weak the vast majority of the time -- it looks like you are trying to get a fold pre-flop.
That being said, I think this is a fairly comfortable fold against the vast majority of opponents.
You don't have a read or HH to share for V and yet he tripled up in ~1 hour at the table?
I don't like the iso- size and I don't like the 4b size. Are you 4betting to this size with AA and KK? IMO, these sizes read as weak the vast majority of the time -- it looks like you are trying to get a fold pre-flop.
That being said, I think this is a fairly comfortable fold against the vast majority of opponents.
He had a big stack when I sat down, which was about an hour earlier. In that hour, I went from $500 to $1245, while he hadn't played many hands.
It occurs to me now that I forgot to add to the OP that he was up walking around for about 20-30 minutes during that time, so I didn't have much in the way of observations of his prior play.
It was a loose and splashy game, with several big stacks on the table when I sat down. The high hand promotion in the room is usually $500 every 1/2 hour, but they upped it to $1k in advance of a big tournament, and the bad beat jackpot has also been bloated after not hitting for a few weeks, so there's a lot of loose, splashy action happening.
He had a big stack when I sat down, which was about an hour earlier. In that hour, I went from $500 to $1245, while he hadn't played many hands.
It occurs to me now that I forgot to add to the OP that he was up walking around for about 20-30 minutes during that time, so I didn't have much in the way of observations of his prior play.
It was a loose and splashy game, with several big stacks on the table when I sat down. The high hand promotion in the room is usually $500 every 1/2 hour, but they up
Sorry, I think I initially read "since HE sat down an hour ago" as opposed to "since HERO sat down an hour ago". My bad.
Seems like a fold to me, I'd be pretty annoyed at myself for making it $300 instead of ~$200 though.
Fold as played. I would not 4! someone who has not played much at 1/3. You may not be ahead of his 3! range. As mentioned, your 4! size is way too big.
Agree with the consensus: 4bet is good (especially button vs SB) but size is too big; now fold absent any reads.
While I agree the 4bet sizing is too large, I'm not convinced 4betting this hand IP at 400bb is the best play. We're now in a zeroish EV/high variance spot. Calling the small 3bet IP is probably better, particularly with a hand that likely dominates a portion of Villain's 3bet range (but hard to say for sure given the lack of info about him).
Always call preflop versus a live 3betting range with AKs unless you have some specific history with Villain.
A good heuristic for deciding whether to 4bet or not is if you don’t know what to do versus a 5bet, then just call the 3bet.
Fold as played.
The deeper you get, the more AKs is a call and not a 4b. 4b is not horrible, but I agree with the comments on your sizing. 2.5x would be a good sizing, but also I think a good heuristic this deep would be to 4b to a size that gives villain an opportunity to 5b to a size less than all in. I would fold to the 5b jam as played. I think your range on v is generous. Decent chance this deep at 1/3 it's a KK+. If you even probability weight him 50% AKs, 50% QQ, 25% AKo, you're not priced in.
I assume hero should be more prone to 4-betting AKo than AKs? That's how I've approached things tbh.
You bring up the High Hand, which is $1000, but your stacks are above that amount. For players who have a couple hundred on the table, you'll see them play big pairs more slowly so they can try to hit quads (overall self defeating but I can understand it).
In this case, the villain is after a larger and more likely prize: your stack. So I would not heavily weigh the HH consideration of the typical bonus hunter.
I think your hand plays pretty well as a flat of the 3b, and would have a hard time calling off the 400bb shove without some additional in-person reads or tells.
I might flat a 3! with KK this deep against someone playing tight at 1/3.
I had a hand 550 effective at 1/2. Old guy in 2nd position made it 12, I 3! to 35 in 4th position with AKo, he 4! to 90. I folded before he could get the chips out there, and he showed AA. Thought afterwards I shouldn't have 3! with AK an ep raise that sizing from that guy.
Guys, sorry that my OP was unclear. Only after I posted it did I remember that V was actually absent from the table for about 20-30 minutes during the hour or so that I'd been sitting there. I didn't mean to imply that he's been playing tight.
I appreciate the advice to just flat call his 3B rather than 4B. Ordinarily, I would at least mix flatting and 4B'ing, depending on stack depth and reads.
Here, because we were so deep, I wanted to get more money into the pot before the flop came out with over-cards and killed his enthusiasm for what I thought would be a PP lower than KK, and based on the tells I picked up, likely lower than QQ. But given that I was in position, I can see the argument for just flatting, regardless of the stack depth.
In my experience, low stakes recs are either the type to only jam with AA/KK, or they jam all their PP's from TT+ and a lot of AX. Blocking AA/KK, and based on the tells, I figured he was the latter type, not the former.
I'm somewhat surprised how many people are saying we should fold, getting over 1.6 to 1. Getting those odds, it seemed like a pretty clear call to me. So I did end up calling, assigning him a range of TT+ and a fair bit of AX.
Spoiler
V turned over TT, which is pretty close to the bottom of the shoving range I was giving him.
I know I said in the OP that I thought he'd be 5B-jamming QQ+. If I said TT+, you'd all say I was nuts, or relying too heavily on my read or live tells. If I knew exactly what I saw that made me think he was weak when he 3B and when he jammed, I'd tell you. But I don't know exactly what it was, just something about his manner made me pretty sure he was weak.
As it happened, the flop came out Q-high, rainbow. No idea if he would have check-folded or c-bet if I'd just flatted his 3B. The turn put another Q on board, and gave me a BDFD. Depending on the flop action, I think all the money may have been going in by the river, one way or the other.
Like, if I flat, the pot is $150 going to the flop. If he c-bets $100 and I call, it's $350 going to the turn, and we'd have $1070 left. Don't know that I'd be ready to fold to anything less than an over-bet, and I'd likely start a two-street bluff if he checked. I'd likely bet pot on the turn, and jam the river, whether I made my hand or not.
After the hand, V said something about preferring to go all in with any PP, including 22, rather than AK, which sounded asinine to me. He didn't seem to understand anything about pot odds or equity calculations.
Sorry, but despite the reveal I'm still going with "fold."
Reveal is nice, and you had odds to call versus TT.
4! may be OK with reads. However, without reads or if someone is 3-betting a lot, I wouldn't 4! without AA/KK at 1/3. Sure AK may be a standard 4! by GTO or in a 5/10 game. The general 3! ranges at 1/3 are too tight.
I don't think folding is a mistake at all. In fact, I still think calling was a pretty big mistake, since I know you know that seeing TT here is basically a Black Swan...and we don't make money hunting Black Swans. If we're playing well we're supposed to be occasionally bluffed off large pots.
OTOH, if you believe it was a good call because of your having an almost preternatural ability to piece together multiple tells to read him for TT+, then it's a cool occurrence but not really educational or helpful for anyone else.
TT is not a black swan here. Like J7o might be. Seeing someone 5bet shove TT for 400bb is highly relevant. That swan is mostly white, with a tinge of orange-brown.
Notwithstanding his after-hand speech about not going all in with AK (which I took at face value), I think it is instructive that he had TT. It calls into question the assumption that V always and only has AA/KK, which would lead us to fold QQ/JJ.
If an opponent is capable of 5B jamming TT for 400bb, it's not inconceivable that he jams AQ, AJs, or even worse AX. If he 3B's TT, does he also 3B some PP's that fold to our 4B? I have to think he has some 3B-fold range, which perhaps includes 99 and some worse PP's, and if so, it validates the 4B with AKs.
I don't think it's a good call because I was right that he was weak. I think it's a good call once we arrive at that decision point, getting over 1.6 to 1, and blocking AA/KK. We can say it's a mistake to 4B, and also say it would be a mistake to fold to the 5B, once we 4B. It would be a disaster to fold and see him show AKo or worse AX.
I wasn't expecting him to 5B jam, but I was very prepared to call if he did. I actually beat him into the pot, causing him to say, "oh, $hlt..." before he saw my hand. He was basically bluffing. He just happened to be bluffing with the best of it.
It can't be good to get in 400bb with your hand. You got into the situation by raising way too large. Kk shouldn't even be going all in for 400. Raise smaller both times or don't even realise the second time
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Villain shoved because he couldn't call the big 4! with TT and didn't want to fold a strong hand. It doesn't make sense strategically, but it makes sense in terms of donk thinking, not liking to fold.
AKs may be a standard 4! in certain types of games where someone is 3-betting more than flat calling. Here, you should flat call the 3!. It is fine to see a flop with this hand.
Great to show results and you got stacked for 400xBB and gii a dog, but had odds to call against his actual hand.
