$2/$5 with 98 o/s on button
$2/$5 with 98 o/s on button

$2/$5 with 98 o/s on button

$3K effective. I've been playing with V for about 3 hours.

1. He has been raising preflop about 2-4 hands per orbit.
2. He's aggressive and C-bets about 90% of the time with 2-3 callers.
3. He will fire turn and river about 50% of the time.
4. I haven't seen any showdowns on the river (so I don't know if he's bluffing vs. value)
5. No one has raised V yet (post flop)/so I don't have any info when he gets raised (post-flop)

I have 98 on the button. 2 limpers and V raises to $25. I call and 1 limper calls.

$87 (994). V bets $35. I raise to $135, limper folds, V calls.

$357 (J) V checks, I bet $245. V calls.

$847 (9) V checks.

Hero?

18 February 2025 at 05:57 PM
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12 Replies



You've not seen a single showdown from V in 3 hours, and he's playing 30%+ of hands??

Fold pre.

Flop seems dubious, but I guess it can't be bad if it worked.

1/3 to 1/2 pot on the river, if he probably thinks you don't call 98o on the BTN, and/or if he'll bluff raise ... maybe 1.6k if he thinks you will call but you'll bluff your way out of spots?


I go large here. 1.2x pot or more. Also think pre is pretty light.


Pre is just terrible. Just don't play this hand. 3! would be not as bad.

Given the way he has been playing, seems like just call down and plan on raising river, betting if he checks. River, I would go big. He likely has a full house. He could have AA or KK. Hard for him to put you on quads.


I fold pre and I prefer flatting the flop to someone who appears to be as wide as him, he's only gonna continue with the very top of his range when we raise.

As played I don't think he folds anything otr for 575 except missed draws, but that's just me.


what would you bet if you were bluffing missed hearts? Bet that

pre is truly terrible (fold>>>3 bet>>call) and yep, either he isn't raising 2-4 hands an orbit or you're not concentrating properly when his hands/play are getting to showdown


Grunch:

If V is raising 2-4 hands per orbit, c-betting 90% into multiple callers, barreling turns and rivers 50%, but not getting called, we probably don't need to see any showdowns to know that he's bluffing his a$$ off pretty frequently, because the table isn't punishing his LAG-tard ways.

PRE - Oh, FFS. Raise or fold 98o. That's trash even I wouldn't play. Raising to get it HU and IP is fine, but so is folding. With V on our right, we'll have plenty of opportunities to stack this clown.

FLOP - Ho. Lee. $hlt. I mean...kinda hard to screw this up, unless you decide now is the time to scare V awayyyyy...WTF? Why are you raising almost 4x when we're IP and V c-bets more than 1/3 pot into two opponents?

Just flat call, and let V barrel turn. If he checks turn, we can put in a chunky bet. Maybe the limper calls or (OMG how awesome would this be?) puts in a check-raise from EP.

TURN - With a heart in our hand, and blocking V's straight draws, I'm not too worried about giving V a cheap price to see the river. Think I might bet 1/2 to 2/3 pot, like $175 to $245, at most, but would have preferred it if V still had the betting lead here.

If we flat called the flop, V probably would have bet at least 2/3 pot on the turn, and we could have put in a really chunky raise. Like, if he bets $100, we pop it to $400. If he pots it, or over-bets, I'd just flat, and let him continue to punt.

I rarely slow-play, and don't advocate it, but against a hyper-aggro V who is almost certainly bluffing a ton, I'll just let V blast away with his entire range.

RIVER - OMG. After V raises pre, calls our flop raise, and calls our 70% pot turn bet, he either has a boat for value, or he's got a busted draw. Think I might bet 2x pot here, praying he loses his mind and jams.

ETA - I think it's higher EV to target his boats for value with a big over-bet, rather than trying to target his entire range, value and bluffs, by betting small, hoping to induce a raise. It's unlikely he decides to raise with his missed draws, and there isn't much in his range that can raise the river for value if he didn't 3B flop or raise the turn.

Like, he's probably not showing up with JJ-AA, and probably not raising TT or worse PP's. Pray he thinks we're stupid and playing 88 this way, or that we bricked some mega-draw, or that we binked the J with JT, and think we have the nuts, so he can call with QQ+, or whatever the f**k he has here, that plays this way.


One thing I think people are missing is that if he's never shown cards in 3 hours, and it's not because H just forgot every single hand where that happened, he can't be bluffing every hand ... so he almost has to be folding a lot of value hands that he thinks aren't good.

And maybe it's my player pools, but even most average players don't call even QQ on the river here unless they think you can be bluffing a lot or are stupid enough to value worse (which is super hard with hero's line). Maybe people get sticky with AA/KK, but even that's doubtful for a guy who has played 40 hands and shown none.

I don't mind a big bet on the river, but it depends almost entirely on hero's image. The fact hero called 98o pre. is a start ... and if we've been seen bluffing air. on the river I def. bet big, but otherwise meh.


by illiterat m

One thing I think people are missing is that if he's never shown cards in 3 hours, and it's not because H just forgot every single hand where that happened, he can't be bluffing every hand ... so he almost has to be folding a lot of value hands that he thinks aren't good.And maybe it's my player pools, but even most average players don't call even QQ on the river here unless th

as played, QQ is exactly the same hand as KK and AA?


by illiterat m

One thing I think people are missing is that if he's never shown cards in 3 hours, and it's not because H just forgot every single hand where that happened, he can't be bluffing every hand ... so he almost has to be folding a lot of value hands that he thinks aren't good.And maybe it's my player pools, but even most average players don't call even QQ on the river here unless th

Respectfully, if V is raising 2-4 hands per orbit pre, c--betting 90%, and barreling turns and rivers 50%, and never getting looked up, I don't see how we can assume he's folding a lot of value hands. I'd assume he's bluffing a ton with those sorts of frequencies, especially if he's not getting to showdown.

That's not to say I think V has air here. I'd think his air would fold before the river. But people tend to view others through the lens of how they play. So if this guy is bluffing and going for thin value a lot, he's more likely to think hero is bluffing or betting thin, and call down light.

In my pool, a lot of players are going to have a hard time laying down TT+ here. Many will level themselves into thinking it's unlikely hero fast plays trips on the flop, and then rivers quads. They'll think it's more likely hero has 88, or a busted draw, possibly JT, or hero is over-playing some PP, like 77.

Hero is repping really strong, and V's range is going to be weighed towards boats. Hero should polarize to get max value for his hand. It's a disaster if hero just bets pot and gets snap called by QQ+.


2x overbet river or even jam.

Hero is repping 9x only and bluffs. Villain has Jx qq+ alot, and some missed flushdraws. Hes folding with fd, snap callung every boat he has.


Fold pre, this is laughably bad. Although, I guess it's a good play if you know you're going to river the absolute nuts.

Against villain as described my plan is to call down so I don't raise flop.

Turn is fine.

River I dunno LOL I guess I either go ~$450 or I just jam because I'm a massive spaz.


by feel wrath m

as played, QQ is exactly the same hand as KK and AA?

This is true, from a high level point of view, where H should have 9x or air and we could think about a strategy where we never call QQ-AA when we had a heart. BUT in my experience lots of players at even 2-5 will call AAh and fold QcQs.

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