another measly bluff-catcher
$5/T/Q $5.4k eff
Hero CO Ah3h 75, SB call
(150) flop 9c7c4h
x, Hero 125, Villian r 375, call
(900) turn As
Villian 700, call
(2.3k) river 2d
Villian 2.5k, Hero?
Notes: SB is rec thinking player. Have honestly rarely seen SB get OOL in ~50hrs of play. He was borderline whining about some bluff earlier for $4-5k that got picked off, which may hint that this guy doesn't run bluffs very often. What bluff combos do they need to be finding here to balance 44/77/99/79s (although, I think 99 gets 3! at high clip)? Also, what better hands do we have to call down with?? I guess some A9. And, even something like 3s4s might be better than AxXx, as we have removal to 44, right? After we get raised to b80, is the flop float simply just spewing EV?!?
cheers,
ringring
12 Replies
Why did you bet so much on the flop, especially with a hand that really doesn't want to have to call a c/r?
idk thought pot was 300 for some reason.. but is it terrible to mix some b80 ish, b33, & x with our hand otf?
Given that this flop favors the villain (who rarely gets out of line), I don't see a need to bet more than 1/2 pot with any of our range, assuming we even choose to c-bet.
right, v fair
I mean you can't really bet/call a raise on a texture like this when most turns will improve his perceived range and he can keep betting. Luckily you turn an ace - I think it's just knowing the SB and how he plays clubs,T8s,68s,etc. The problem with these spots is we know when he has say 99/77 he's probably taking this line 100% of the time, but if he has say T8s we don't know how often if ever he takes an aggressive line like this. So it's not only just him having the bluff combos to call, but the frequency at which he bluffs these combos needs to be extremely high or there needs to be a ton of combos. You said you haven't seen him get out of line so I would say fold, but this is really a live player read scenario.
I don't like it vs. this player. I fold to the raise on the flop, which as you know should have been smaller or even a check.
Turn is whatever, ditto river. Vs. a player who doesn't get OOL, I think we are beat, but who knows? Once you call flop and turn, maybe you need to call river? Does he seem strong? Weak?
A lot depends on his preflop range. Most experts/coaches advocate a 3! Or fold aproach from the SB.
My observation is that a lot of the player pool has heard this enough for it to sink in. Some regs follow it. When the game or bb is passive many are still willing to set mine. And maybe mix in premium SCs like jts.
I'm the same profile: winning rec. Probably too loose pre. I'm only calling hands like 68s or 79s here if you are both bad or one of you is a complete whale. Even then, i might not.
People are more apt to 3! Suited aces, but those might call. I don't think he turned an ace and kept playing it like a set. So, if he does call suited aces those could be a lot of his flop blufs and now they are ruled out. Though you lose to ac4c.
His sizing is a little odd. On the turn, you would think he would size down with nutty hands to keep more of your hands in. Even a bluff doesnt need to be quite this big. However, a nutted hand could be targetting draws. As a rec, he might be more afraid of bad beats/tough spots.
Another big bet... huge in IRL money on the river. Again, this seems like kind of overkill on a bluff. He is going to be running into huge hands fairly often. A lot of your weaker stuff has folded the turn already. Maybe even like kk? He could bet smaller just in case you have a higher busted draw or a stubborn pp. Or just give up.
I would fold.
Grunch:
PRE - Interesting that SB flats in a 3-blind setup. He should really be 3B-or-folding. Any idea what sort of range to give him? I'd think it's a lot of middling pairs and suited Broadway combos.
FLOP - Why bet so big? If we're just betting range, why not $75? It's not like this board smacks our range. I'd think he'd have way more sets than we do here.
When he x/r's 3x, that's sort of fishy, right? I'd think 2P or a set would want to go much larger, though maybe not when your c-bet is so big. I mostly just want to fold.
If we range-bet 1/3-1/2 pot, and V x/r'd for 3x, I'd be more inclined to call, and might even think about 3B'ing if V was super-capable, but against this guy, when we bet almost full pot and he x/r's, yeah, I think calling is bordering on spew.
TURN - Yeesh. If he was raising flop with the NFD, he's almost certainly got us out-kicked, unless maybe he flats pre with A2s, in which case our kickers don't even play. I mostly just want to fold, even though we improved.
RIVER - Gezus, now we're losing to literally every AX in his range, and only beat his missed straight draws and whatever worse 1P hands he might turn into a bluff.
For bluffs, he could have (in theory) - T8, 86, 65, and maybe some wacky $hlt like 4Xcc. Maybe if he's thinking and capable, he turns some 1P into a bluff. But you said he doesn't get OOL or run big bluffs very often. Like, how often is this dude starting a big 3-street bluff on the flop, and barreling off when every potential draw bricked?
For better hands, we could have all the flopped and turned sets, aces up, AT-AK, A5, and 53cc (FDFD turned a DGSD that comes in on the river).
Yikes, first of all flop bet way too big and I'd prefer sticking with the 75$ or even just checking to improve here. What's he supposed to call with when you bet 150$? a better hand most likely!? Unless you're trying to just take it down which maybe is what you intended, but how can you call a re-raise for $375 when V hasn't OOL. If it's me and I know I don't play at those stakes yet but extreme strength here from V and that Ace on the turn is a horrible card for us to just keep us around.
Fold fold fold find that button and fold.
Don't misclick flop sizing obv :P
Flop can be a peel in theory but you can fold this 99% of the time online, much less against a live rec. Just save your money and move on.
Turn fine obv.
I'd just fold river. You have a pure bluff catcher and villain is 1) a rec, 2) who showed aggression on all 3 postflop streets, 3) all of which was for large sizes, 4) one of which was a raise and another of which was a PSB. Just fold and move on with your life.
all v valid response. butchered this on hard. thanks guys. 44.