bloated hearts

The solver likes a 1/3 psb on this turn (although it checks 1/4 of the time).

How likely is it that this "competent TAG, " who has already spewed off a buy-in, is going to raise the turn without either the Ah or some other hand already way ahead of us?

I dunno, I just check flops and see how it plays out first.

As played, turn just check and give up? I doubt anyone will be bluffing when they bet. Fish is in hand afterall.

Just try to go to showdown for free imho.

Folding the turn to anything but a jam is just silly...and even to a turn jam the solver is indifferent to calling/folding when holding the Qh.

The fact that this allegedly "competent TAG" is already in spew-tilt mode means there is no folding here.

Check/evaluate. Highly doubt I'm folding to a turn bet.

However, I go bigger on the flop.

hmmm so people like my cbet oop here?

I do, but I seem to like them more than most. As stated, I'd go bigger. especially against a station and someone who thinks I'm full of it.

I don’t.

Not really, since the 1/4 donk simply folds out anyone with little equity, and exposes you to a possible raise with a hand that would love a free turn card.

What AF said.

What is your reason for cbetting flop? What does it accomplish?

- our equity against continuing ranges is not great
- hands that fold out are just crushed
- we don’t like facing a raise
- we can’t barrel any turn
- nothing to protect against
- our hand is not that good if stacks ultimately go in

PRE - if V1 is a station and V2 is tilted, I'd raise bigger, say, $75, or even $90.

FLOP - dude, seriously, why are you c-betting into two opponents, especially on a monotone flop with an over to your PP?

Just check. Our hand doesn't need protection, and we're probably behind if we get action. There aren't too many dominated hands we can get value from here. Mostly just 99-JJ with one heart, and it's super unlikely that V1 is limping in with those hands. If we check, maybe he stabs at it, V2 calls, and we can come along. If he checks, maybe V2 bets, and we get some indication of his hand strength.

If you must bet, I'd go even smaller, like $35-$40 at most.

TURN - just check. We beat nothing. Probably rage fold to anything more than a 1/2 PSB.

If he checks back, do not bet the river. Just check evaluate. Reasonable chance he just checks back with Ax/Kx or worse, and he might bet small with a bluff. If he bets big, just fold.

Result:

I guess there is some merit in targeting Kx on that turn but it’s not the right holding to be turning into a bluff and probably not the right street.

If you're unsure whether your play was good or not, consider the river situation if he called turn. The pot would be $545 and you'll have $260 behind. If you jam river he'll be getting a little over 3:1 on a call. If you check river and he jams you'll be getting 3:1.

What hands do you think call turn and river, and what hands call turn and fold, or check back river?

It's hard to see what hands call turn, and fold river that we can actually beat. If he flatted pre with AKo, which seems at least somewhat likely, and the river is the Ah, we're going broke. If the river is a Q we still lose to flopped flushes and have to pray he wasn't sticky enough to call pre, flop and turn with JTo one heart.

If the river bricks we lose to Ax or Kx, plus 88, and maybe occasionally 33. Doubtful he calls a jam with 99-JJ, with or without a heart. He just folds all his busted draws if we bet a brick. We don't always win if he checks back, and we'll be in the blender if he jams, laying us 3:1, knowing we probably have to call, because he has so many busted draws that have to bet.

Basically you made a polarization mistake. Your bet wasn't for value, and wasn't a bluff, or you turned a hand with decent showdown value into a bluff.

thx doc