2/5: Top set facing shove on a crappy turn

I would call, particularly against this player. You are about 23% if behind and he could have Ah, or maybe a worse set or something. If he had a flush, he might get allin in two bets.

Preflop is standard.

I am not a big fan of your cbet size otf: I'd go either smaller (~1/3 pot) or bigger (~3/4 pot).

As played, and actually in any case, there is no way I'd fold top set 120bb effective against what looks like a maniac.

Grunch:

PRE - if he's as LAG as you describe, I'd 3B bigger, to $100, at least.

FLOP - On such a wet board, against this V, I think I'd pot it. He's going to have too many draws that will want to continue vs a 1/2 pot bet, with plans to steal the pot on run-outs that he thinks we won't like.

Alternatively, the standard 1/3 pot c-bet here is likely to induce some loose x/r's from him. He's going to x/r with 2P+ for value, but also with a lot of his good draws.

So either bet 1/3 pot, or pot it. Betting 1/2 pot is no bueno.

TURN - Gross. If he has a made hand, we don't have the odds to call.

Not sure he always has a made hand, though. If he's as aggro as described, he could have some flop floats that are going to jam turn as a bluff. I actually think a LAG would x/r this flop with many of his flush draws, at least some of the time, to balance out his x/r's with sets and 2P.

It's possible he's doing this with worse for value, like a lower set, or just 2P, but that seems less likely than him taking this line with a made hand or a bluff, and I'd think he'd play made hands differently, as a x/r on the flop and just a check-raise on turn. His 1.4x donk is a bit suspicious.

I don't love it, but I think we have to call here. We're not exactly at the top of our range, but we're above the range that this type of V would be targeting to fold. He's probably putting us on a lot of over-pairs and hands like AK that are over c-betting the flop, and thinking that our over-pairs would have c-bet bigger.

Played fine, although I'd go bigger on the flop. Can't fold vs. this guy, and we have outs if he is ahead.

The only way you could ever consider a fold here is if the guy was a complete nit who only shoves with the nuts. Even then, I probably still call. In your limited experience vs him, this player is either on a fantastic heater, or more likely is playing rather aggressive pushing people around. This is a scary card, and you only have $445 behind. He probably figures you fold a lot of 1 pair, even overpairs against a shove here. Which means he could have almost anything.

Consider your range, you 3-bet - you didn't specify but I'm guessing this is probably the first time you 3-bet since he sat. In his mind, you might not even have 99 here. He is likely thinking suited broadway, JJ+ type of range. The scariest card in the deck just rolled off and he shoves... would he do that if he just smashed his flush or straight? I wouldn't. If I just turned the nuts, I think an overbet is going to get too many folds. I'd either bet smaller or check and maybe check/shove. Shoving is a terrible play if nutted here because heroes AJ-AK type hands are going to fold and even JJ-AA are pure bluffcatchers. So unless he is just spewy, he is probably checking with most hands that beat AA. And I agree with doc that this player type is probably going to x/r with many of his flop draws.

I think you will see more Ax hearts than you will see made flushes. If you're losing, I think it is most likely to 7x hands, which without the heart he might see shoving as protection from your one-heart holdings. Since he is apparently playing wide he probably has more than he should, but he also has more Ax with one heart which is the most logical hand class to play this way in my mind. His play reeks of trying to bluff you off of an overpair. You can beat all his bluffs and a chunk of value, and even against his best possible hand you have ok equity- so call. A fold only makes sense if you are sure that this player is never bluffing this spot.