5/5/T Tough River Decision with KK

I like your XC-XC-X line. Question in my mind is to what extent does V range you on an overpair compared to Ax? Given your description of V I'm favouring a fold because while it may seem we're under-repped he may in fact be targeting this exact hand-class with his 2x pot OB.

He doesn't need to bet all his draws on the turn, plus his 87s now has some showdown. Theoretically he's meant to bluff with some non-showdown hands (probably not Ax) but he's likely 3betting most suited broadways. I mean he might have some T9s etc, but not much.

These are tough folds because you planned to XC all the way and while the runout isn't terrible the OB is a red flag: just underbluffed live.

Unsure what I do otr but his relatively small turn barrel is interesting

Feels like he should size up there whether for value or if choosing to semi bluff? If he had like QJs his sizing makes some sense until river obv

Overall I doubt he flopped trips+ and it is really about whether the river completed a straight, or if he is tossing 8-9x/misc club bluff lines like this often enough to warrant calls

Or maybe he just flatted pre w/QQ 😏

Preflop and flop are pretty standard.

I prefer to lead turn here. H has more QQ and AQ. I'd rather fold to a raise than let V get a free card, since he's drawing a lot here and the paired board reduces his 6x combos. If we just call, we're going to face river pressure on any rivers favoring V's range. And exactly this happens.....

River: I prefer to block-bet this river. Logical draws have busted. If V has 77 or 6x he will raise and we can fold in an under-bluffed spot.

AP: V reps thin. H is under-repped. But this is an under-bluffed spot for sure. Perhaps V can blast off with Qx blocking H's QQ or trying to push H off AQ chops. We get around 8-5 and I suppose we are theoretically supposed to call with KK. On the other hand, we have only 130 invested and perhaps we can find better spots. Cry fold.

If you don’t have any reason to think he bluffs for this size, you can assume they’re underbluffing and just don’t bother with bluff catches here.

If you have good reason to think he’s capable of bluffing with this line/sizing specifically, then I think you wanna mostly call with this hand on this run out. If more draws got there, you’d want blockers.

I'm assuming this is 5/10 and the effective stack is 360 BBs. This deep, I'm not excited playing UTG. Not going to fold, but honestly I'm looking to l/rr.

One tell I look at is if the better is increasing the relative size of the bet each street. Flop is 50% pot, turn is bigger and the river is an over bet. That's a sign of strength. The villain needs to be bluffing a lot to make this call. I'd let it go.

I disagree with this spot being “under-bluffed”. This is not a population read. OP had a good description of this V. And as described, when a V overbets river, he is good at picking spots to polarize and should never be fat value exclusively. Basically, players that don’t bluff rivers enough usually don’t 2x pot at all.

Given that and the fact that we don’t have Kc, he probably has a lot more bluff combos than value combos esp knowing that H has a one pair hand at best and is capable of folding an overpair.

Bluffs include a bunch of FD combos, OESDs, some naked Ac combos and even hands like 78 that feels they don’t have enough SDV. V should have almost no 6x hands. Maybe 67s. Other value he plays this strongly would be 98cc, 55 and 77. I would seriously discount QQ as a flat pre. I doubt he chooses this sizing with Qx, or this line at all with 88-JJ hands.

If we are bluff catching with anything it should be non-club AA/KK.

I will add that analyzing this spot and posting this conclusion in a forum is certainly easier than flicking in a call in game facing this bet.

Grunch:

This line from V looks like he's mostly repping 77 for value, or busted clubs as a bluff. If he's capable, maybe he's depolarizing with a rivered straight with 98cc, or he's going thin with Qx, or possibly turning A5 into a bluff.

I could see x/r'ing the flop, but I think I'd prefer it on the turn. His flop bet could be repping anything, but his turn bet of just over 1/2 pot seems weak. It looks like he's trying to cap you by betting small, thinking you'll x/r with TP+.

His value range is so narrow, and it seems like he could have a ton of bluffs that are trying to fold out our pairs lower than Qx or just our ace or king high club draws. Our hand is pretty under-repped, he's got tons of bluffs, and we beat some value, so I think we should call.

To be clear, the population my read is based on is “studied” players who are “capable of making bluffs.”

If OP has a read that villain punishes capped ranges with overbets, then certainly snap him off. He only needs like 6 or 7 bluff combos to be worth a look up.

If OP has played with this guy in casinos all across town and hasn’t seen him do this before, then there’s a >60% chance he has the nuts.

I don’t know which is the case based on reads.

Grunch:

I c-bet the flop often. Sure he has more 6x than you in theory. But, how many 6x combos does the described v have when you're opening from UTG? Too much of his range get a free card. I'd rather c-bet and decide turn/river.

Turn is fine AP. I wouldn't say his range is stronger than yours after he bets. His bet is taking out medium strength combos like 88-JJ. He could have QcXc and all the semi bluffs (87cc, XcXc, 98cc etc)

On the river I am shaking the villain's hand and folding. You are capped, v knows this and he's putting you to the test.

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why is everyone saying hero is capped? if he is checking KK then he is probably checking QQ, 55, 66, 77 also on the flop

I wasn't saying he's capped. I said he's under-repped. He check-called 1/2 pot bets on flop and turn, possibly leading V to think he's capped.

Some lead flop*, some raise flop, some raise turn. We should be capable of showing up with some of those, but villain should have 3-5 times as many combos.

* Villain doesn’t know whether we range check flop or not.

Thanks for the feedback everyone.

I ended up throwing this one away since this spot is so uncommon, even against good opponents, that I feel like I can over fold it. That being said, I don’t hate a call here either.

One of my biggest leaks I’ve been working on is calling big bets too light on the river

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Only OP can answer if he's checking all those combos.

For me, I'm not checking 55/66. Too many players want "trap" and let the villain catch up when we have a strong made hand. Oftentimes I think they lose a street of value by checking. Bet small if you must, but I am not checking.

Checking QQ is more vulnerable than KK, checking KK is more vulnerable than AA. Without 55/66, QQ+ is your main driver of value. If H x/c QQ on the flop, he's checking calling again on the turn? There's too much money behind to not x/r turn so you have to discount significant portion of QQ from H. I think Ed Miller used to call this "limiting the turn" if I remember correctly in one of his books. I don't know how many 77 make it to the river if you're H.

Your strategy should have some checks on the flop. You just don't need to check the top of your range.

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