Finding bluff raises
1/3 NLHE 9 handed
Game is playing deep and very loose with most hands going limp-limp-open to 30-call-call-call... Most pots over 150$ to the flop. Anyone with 88+ is 3-betting 5x or more pre.
V - Unknown mawg, seems like loose passive to me. Very typical. 800$ UTG.
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V limps UTG 800 effective, H sees A♣ 7♣ in LJ and opens to 15, somehow it goes heads up.
Flop 30 - J♦ 6♠ 3♣
V checks, I cbet 20, V calls
Turn 70 - K♦
V checks blind (wondering how you guys interpret these delayed check blinds?), I check back
River 70 - 4♥
V leads 25...
Was listening to a podcast talking about when to hero call and when SDV isn't good enough to do so we should contemplate bluff raising... would this be a candidate? What kinds of hands are good bluff raises here?
6 Replies
You have no value hands here so how can you bluff.
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What kinds of hands are good bluff raises here?
Maybe it would be better if you asked yourself:
1. What is my opponent's range?
2. What am I representing with a potential river raise?
If I were interested in putting in more money after my flop bet was called, it would have been on the turn since that K hits my range.
As played, I’m not interested in bluffing here. Any hand with SDV that I would want to raise with would be raising small trying to get value from Jx. You could make an exploitative argument that if you raise big you have a bunch of fold equity; but personally I am just letting this go this time. I’d rather save my “capital” for another time.
In my experience turn check dark is often a weakish draw or like bad pair + backdoor. I'd guess this is something like 65/54/43 that stabs when checked to. Agree that the K was the time to bluff
I think the mistake here is not betting the turn - this is one of the best turn cards for your "range" and really all he can call with is Jx+. Because you checked the turn you sort of capped your range - the only had you can raise the river with that makes any sense would be 44. I mean if he bet 10 dollars you could raise given it's 1/3, he probably has less than Jx and is block betting, but against better players your line makes no sense.
PRE - think we can just over-limp A7s. But raising it is fine. Might go bigger, like $20.
FLOP - c-bet is too large. We could go $15 here. When you bet 2/3 pot, and he calls, he probably has top pair.
TURN - he's checking dark to convey strength with a hand he likes enough to call flop but knows he's never donking the turn. The K is better for our range, and downgrades his Jx to 2nd pair. I'd over-bet to rep AA/KK/AK, like $105.
RIVER - V isn't repping much, but neither are we if we raise now. Folding is fine. If you want to raise, you'll need to make it at least $150 if you want to get it through.
A7cc is a decent bluff candidate here. We block 75, AK, and AJ, and unblock missed diamonds, not that he's likely to have diamonds. More likely he's got some weak Jx combo that is block betting because he doesn't know what else to do.
