bluffing the river with a busted Ah draw
5/5
$600 effective
CO - This guy plays like an old-school pro from 2008, super straightforward. He usually cbets 3/4 pot, and I’ve seen him pot bet both the flop and turn with AK on Kxxx board. But he’s also capable of raising 97s from the CO, so I’d assume hands like Q8s and K8s are in his range too.
CO raises to $20, Hero(BB) A♣8♣ calls
Flop($45) K♠ Q♣ 4♣
Hero x, CO bets $40, Hero calls
Turn($125) 7♠
Hero x, CO x
River($125) 3♦
Hero - ?
The problem with this river -yes, my opponent is probably capped. To have a balanced range, he should be checking back the turn with a lot of kings, but I don’t think he is. So his range is mostly Qx, some weak K8, and 88-JJ type hands.
If he’s capped, an overbet is usually a good option. However, I don’t represent much here either - KJ is probably the strongest hand I have.
Bet $110 and hope to fold out Q9?
6 Replies
If you know he's a TAGfish who tends to bet large, I have no idea why you're calling from the BB only 120bb effective with a hand that needs both IO and a villain who's not going to c-bet the flop for at least 3/4 pot.
Since he's a TAGfish open-raising from the CO, I'd much rather 3-bet than call.
Not really the best situation to represent. The 3 is a big brick, unless you had 65s. The flush draw missed and possible high straight draws missed. So it looks like what it is, a missed draw.
Think I'd prefer to 3b this. I think you're getting tank called here a lot - I might just check and give up.
PRE - think I'd prefer to play 3B or fold here.
FLOP - think I might raise, even though he's c-bet almost full pot on a board that smashes his range.
TURN - standard. Interesting he didn't barrel.
RIVER - theory says we're supposed to bluff here. Don't think we need to go very large. I might bet $90, which looks credible for thin value.
Alternatively, just check. Conceivably he has worse that gives up and checks back.
I think you can go two ways here when he bets pot OTF. You can do what you did which is try to get to showdown cheaply (accomplished, you saw two cards for just under pot) in which case I would check give up now. Or your can check-raise flop. I would go absolutely huge. The problem is on KQ4 fd you dont have that many draws other than naked flushes, and this is your best naked flush. So you should be playing this one to continue all the time. JTcc is here I guess. You can also 3-bet pre at some frequency with suited Aces.
I think you can go two ways here when he bets pot OTF. You can do what you did which is try to get to showdown cheaply (accomplished, you saw two cards for just under pot) in which case I would check give up now. Or your can check-raise flop. I would go absolutely huge. The problem is on KQ4 fd you dont have that many draws other than naked flushes, and this is your best naked flush. So you should be playing this one to continue all the time. JTcc is here I guess. You can also 3-bet pre at some
Yeah, I mostly agree. This is kind of a wet board with 2 broadway cards and he cbet big, so calling is fine and now x/f river.
If you want to bluff, then x/r the flop and bet the turn unimproved. That puts a lot of pressure on him if he doesn't have a set. I would x/r normal sizing and fire again on the turn, which best represents a big made hand.
