River decision with TPTK

So V has around pot behind? I’m probably shoving river to maximize value and expect to be called by better sometimes. Q on the turn is good for you. Why not over bet? I think you can bet bigger on the turn either way.

As played I probably call here expecting to lose sometimes to some weird two pair but also beating a bunch of his weak Ax combos and missed draws that he’s bluffing. If he was so strong, why wouldn’t he just shove the remaining $75?

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Snap call. V’s at this level bluff missed FDs too often.

If you only want to go for 2 streets of value with this hand, check flop or turn.

Seems well played overall.

Think I might raise larger pre, bet a tad larger on flop and turn, and probably block river for a small size, hoping to get called by worse AX.

His line looks like missed hearts or maybe worse AX. Maybe some weird 2P.

I'd probably call, because our small bets allow V to get to the river with a wide range, and our check is going to induce enough bluffs or value bets with worse, though I wouldn't be shocked to see V show up with AQ/A9.

I agree that block betting the river is probably better than checking.

I mean, if you have a read that V will bluff or bet worse for value, you're better off checking to induce. If he's only been at the table a short while, and you don't have much of a read, a block bet may work better.

The counter-argument might be that our hand isn't strong enough to go for three streets, or that a competent opponent might pounce on block bet sizing and blow us off our hand with a big raise.

I'm guessing you either made a tight fold (understandable), or what you may in hindsight think was a loose call. But if you did call and lose, I don't think it's a huge mistake, because you did take smaller sizing on earlier streets (which I also don't think was a big mistake).

If you raise smaller pre, and bet smaller on flop and turn, you can go thinner on the river when the main draws brick out, or you can check to induce and call. If you took my line, raising and betting bigger on earlier streets, and then blocking the river, you might be winning or losing the same amount.

Pre and flop seem good. I think I would bet bigger (2/3 pot) or check when we are heads up on the turn. I also think this is a reasonable runout to go for three streets with TPTK as it's easy for villain to put you on a bluff and call down light with some trashy Ax that should have folded pre.

As played, I don't see how you can ever fold. You beat or chop with value and villain also gets to the river with a bunch of junk when you bet small twice.

Just re-read the OP, and did the math, seeing that V only has 175 left getting to the river. Not sure what to think about his $100 bet now.

If you bet small because V started somewhat short, and based on your read, you don't think he's getting to the river with as weak a range, and you checked hoping he'd check back, I could see folding here, maybe.

If he's too loose pre-flop, is he also too loose post? Does he get here with a lot of 2P+, or even some straights, or is his entire range going to be missed flush draws and AX that may or may not be aces up?

Would we ever check river with AQ or worse aces up? Do we even have A6/A7 in our range, or is A9 the worst 2P we'd have? If we're not checking AQ/A9, then AK is the top of our range, right?

I dunno. We unblock hearts and block aces up. We bet small on earlier streets, and then checked. It would be hard for me to fold here.

Results: I often decide fairly quickly whether to call or fold when I can bluff-catch on the river, and in my last few sessions I've been correct nearly every time.

However, when Villain placed out his stack of reds, it felt strong, although I didn't let myself make a quick decision.

I think you played it fine. If the decision between calling and folding is close, the EV difference is probably negligible, and you're not making a huge mistake either way.

Hypothetically, if you block-bet the river, what size would you take, and do you think he raises?

If you make it $80 or $90, and you fold to a raise, you're saving yourself $10-$20, but at the cost of letting him off the hook when he folds missed hearts or worse AX, or just calls with worse AX when he might have called or bet $100 if you checked. You also don't get to see what he had when you muck.

I don't know if this is right, but maybe there's $10-$20 in future EV from check-calling here, if you gained enough info on how he plays value on turns and rivers. Now you can go for value when you have it, and over-fold when you don't.