Bottom boat deep with idiot

Is V bad enough to do this with some AXss? The x-r on turn couldn't be more of a "Pleeeeease call!" sizing, but most Vs are loath to bet their new flush this way on a paired flop.

My guess, because this is a thread, is they flopped a boat, and are springing their x-raise on anyone who flushed on this turn. Baluga tho, so AP, I can't fold river, needing to be right only 1/4 of the time or so, and telling myself the whole time that this V might be dumb enough to do this with AsJx or the like.

Kind of surprised you didn't fold pre or that UTG nit didn't rip over BB. Hard to fold Tens, I agree.

Banana: what's the decision here? Obv you cannot fold getting over 5-2. So I assume you want to know if folks here would raise?

So V1 flats preflop two raises in a row. You would think he would raise his KK rather than let this go multi-way and face the possibility of someone flopping an Ace. We block JT.

I think he is flush-heavy. I would jam but he can certainly cooler us with the royal, case JT/JJ or KJ.

Way too much to get value from to not jam here against V as described.

Easy shove in my opinion

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I obviously limp in but this deep certainly more argument for juicer raise. Also sigh calling the 3bet; we're getting 22+:1 IO, will often stack the 3better on T high flops, plus there's the deep idiot still in the hand.

Also checking the flop. Actually kinda hoping we don't hit the turn cuz this looks tarpy as hell from the 3better.

Also betting the turn when checked to. Your read on Villain seems to be a bit more regarding pre than post. The only post read is that he stabbed small and gave up. But howsabout when he shows some real strength on a scary board?

I'm guessing your river question is whether to jam versus call? Really depends where he falls on the postflop idiot scale, imo.

GcluelessdeepstacknoobG

I thought this at first too, but what calls us that we beat? Even considering Banana's likely image. Aren't every non-royal flush, lolstraight, or ROFL QJ snap-folding to a raise? Heck, H has a boat, and I'm sigh-calling this 60% bet.

PRE - think I'd prefer to 4B when V2 basically min-clicks his 3B.

FLOP - yeah, just check it back.

TURN & RIVER - I like the 1/3 pot bet. No idea what to make of the min-click, but it's concerning.

V would have to be very idiotic indeed to be playing a flush or trip J's this way. I would think he'd start a bet on the turn with a boat or better, not slow play, but if he is an idiot, maybe he does go for the min-click check-raise.

I don't see the point in raising bottom boat. I'm expecting V to have KJ/JT or absurdly better often enough. If he has a flush and people think we're stupid for not raising, so be it.

I could almost see folding here, and would likely fold to most opponents at 1/3. If he is nutted, he's letting us off the hook easy. If he started betting sooner or bigger, we'd have lost more.

Only as an observation, your read that SB is an idiot makes me expect that you leveled yourself into calling, or even raising, and V snapped you off with better. The fact that he's starting $1100 eff at 1/3 makes me wonder if maybe your read is off, he's actually not that bad, and the "idiot" read is just justification for making an ill advised play.

I’m going off the description and my personal 1/3 population reads where people are especially bad at reading these types of boards and they overplay straights and flushes.

Against someone who is competent this is just a call for me as well.

If the guy is indeed “an idiot”, then I think you can get called by as low as trips, but definitely a strong flush

These decisions are a lot more clear in game because idiot is a pretty broad term lol

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Is he bad enough to call with worse (seems doubtful)? If so, shove. If not, call.

Previous encounter postflop with idiot:

I open A8ss from MP, idiot calls in late position. HU to Js-8h-3d, x he bets 1/3rd I call, turn 2s, x he bets 1/3rd I call, river 8c making trips, I lead for 2x pot and he calls with AJo saying "if an ace comes I get your whole stack"

Playing devil's advocate here...

You opened light. He called with a better hand, in position. He rightly bet the flop with TPTK, and barreled turn with the best of it. You're not supposed to have much 8x in your range that gets to the river this way, and all your missed draws - which is a lot of hands - are going to want to bluff.

I'd call with AJ, too. If he folds, what better hands does he have that call? I'm guessing he'd raise QQ+ pre? JJ that didn't raise pre? Wouldn't that be a raise on the river? I'm assuming he'd raise river with J8. Maybe he shows up with 22/33, but he's pretty starved for hands that are better than TPTK on the flop.

If you show up with 8x, nice hand, good game, but I don't feel like an idiot for calling with TPTK when every draw missed, and you raised pre.

If an ace comes, he does get your whole stack, unless you'd fold aces up, when the ace wouldn't complete any draws, and you'd only be losing to AJ, exactly.

PS - why are you 2x potting it on the river, holding AXss, which blocks his missed flush draws? All his draws missed. Why not check to let him barrel off with all his missed draws and Jx, and then put in a chunky check-raise?

How much of his Jx do you think folds when you take this sizing? Do you think he also calls 2x pot with J9 or JT? Does he even call with QJ or KJ?

I dunno, man. You happened to catch lucky and catch him near the top of his range. I wouldn't throw shade at him for flicking in the call, the way that hand was played. The worst thing he did was under-bet the turn, which is understandable, if he thinks you're prone to blasting off with all your draws.

Result:

It seems like the threads in this forum skew towards "I made a bad play", which makes sense. Otherwise, it would skew towards humble-brags, and we'd all learn less.

The fact that you made the thread at all foreshadows some misstep at some point, making it easier for the rest of us to see what's coming. The read that V is an idiot just adds a convenient justification.

Not trying to beat you up, Banana. I want to see you improve, and am happy when I see you're 2.3k deep at 1/3. I hope that's an indication that you're mostly playing well.

One of the biggest leaks I think many of us have is thinking too much about our image, and what we're doing with our range, and our hand, and not nearly enough about V's range, and what V's doing.

Hopefully this helps - consider these questions:

1. By my math, if he started with $1100, he has $730 back after he bets $225, not $450. But let's say he started 2.3k eff with us. What happens if we raise the river, with enough left behind that we could raise-fold? Do you think he calls or raises with worse? Could we raise-fold for value?

2. If the river wasn't another spade, but just an off-suit brick, how do you think that changes his range? Does he have more flushes or less flushes in his range? Do we have more flushes or fewer flushes in ours? Do you really think he calls a raise with worse, when there are four spades on board, and the board is paired? Does he even bet worse for value?

The way I'd think about these...

1. If we were deep enough to raise-fold, we could consider it. I'm not sure I would raise, but if I did, I might only min-click it, because there's no way in Hell V is going to 3B the river with worse than bottom boat, and I'm not sure how often he calls.

If we're not deep-enough to min-click-fold, then there's no point in raising, because it's almost impossible for him to be stupid enough to call or raise with a worse hand.

Having gone through that mental exercise, and realizing we'd need to fold to a 3B, we might come to the conclusion that bottom boat is too thin to raise. It's a strong hand, in absolute terms, but not in relative terms, when we lose to AQss, Q9ss, JJ, KJ, and JT - all of which seem entirely possible.

2. The fact that the river is another spade makes it easier - and obvious - for anyone to have the nut flush here. But look at the spades on board - K, J, and T.

What flushes can anyone have here that aren't the nut flush, or a straight flush? AQss is a royal. Q9ss is the effective nuts. How likely is it either hero or V just has AXss or QXss and plays it this way?

Is he doing this with AXss, hoping we have Q8ss or worse? Are we calling turn AND river with any of those hands? If we have Q8, what can we beat? If we have A9, are we really hoping he has Q8?

The four spades on board make the nut flush such an obvious possibility that anything worse gets insta-mucked. No one has Q8ss or worse here. With so many boats and better possible, I'm not sure the nut flush is taking this line from V, when he really can't target worse for value.

River shove seems fine, but so does call. This is one of the rare spots where villain small xr sizing on turn is reasonable, as his value-raises are super-nutted; the raise would be more targeting him for being a fish that might make some really bad calls, pay off with most flushes etc..

Villain river sizing does look value-heavy, its ok to call, especially if he will fold against jam often anyway