Silly preflop question

I think call/fold/ship are all viable options.

Now question becomes what do you think his cold 4bet range is?

Is he capable of cold 4betting light?

What is your image? How often were you 3betting at the table? How often is there a 3bet at the tables?

If your image is really nitty, rarely 3bets, we can fold with ease.

You mention he's a asian reg, doesn't tell us much. Is he aggro? Does he play 3bet/fold preflop stategy? Or he prefers to call in position and see a flop? Have you seen him 4bet before?

In theory, you should be calling with roughly half of your continue range at as low as 100bb. In practice, you should probably 5-bet bluff less (bordering on never) because Vs will almost never 4-bet bluff.

In theory, AKs specifically is going to be a shove OOP pure. The reason is that it's difficult to play post flop with such a low SPR against a V who is going to be aggressive with both bluffs and value post flop. If V is going to play anywhere close to GTO, you should shove. Most humans don't, so widening your call range to include AK is reasonable.

My decision would rely on my estimate of Vs play postflop. A lot of live players will play face up in 4-bet pots. IP, they will bet too frequently with value, and fail to bluff their misses enough. If this is the case, on missed flops ck/folding flop, and getting aggressive OTT when the flop checks through prints. If V is going to be aggressive post flop and bluff when he misses, then with AK it's better to shove pre because OOP you'll be folding a lot on flops that miss both and if you do hit an A, it is hard to get paid.

I mentioned that he's a tight Asian reg in his mid-40s, and my image is also pretty tight. I think his range is likely QQ+ AK. I don't really understand what I’ll achieve with my all-in. I also don't see how I can call out of position against a range like that.

Subject line is misleading. Question is not silly. Disappointed face emoji. Two stars.

I think a logical argument could be made for 5B-jamming and folding. I don't know about calling here.

I'd think the stack depth we'd need to call would allow us to call a "normal" sized c-bet (normally less than 1/3 pot in a 4BP), and still have more than a PSB remaining going to the turn, if not 2-3 PSB's.

OOP, it's going to be hard to realize our equity. Just doing some quick math, I think we'd want to be around $1500-$1600 deep to flat call here...

Pot will be $380 on flop. V bets $95 (25%), we call. Pot is $570 on turn. V bets 2/3 pot ($380), we call. Pot will be $1330 going to the river. We want to have at least $1k left behind, so $1k + $380 + $95 + $180 = $1655.

The problem is that V might size up with his flop c-bet or over-bet the turn, so we might have to stack off before the river, which is why jamming pre might be better than flatting.

So, yeah, even $1500-$1600 is kind of shallow. Maybe a good rule of thumb is we want to be 10x the 4B size deep, or $1800 here.

I like that - 10x the 4B to flat call. Think I just invented a new rule. You're all welcome.

Another thought - since we're only 5x the 4B deep here, we'll have just under a 2 SPR going to the flop. I wonder if a good approach when we flat call here is to play the flop as either check-fold when we miss or donk-jam whenever we flop TPTK or a draw to the nuts.

I don't know how to do the calcs, but maybe there's a way to figure out A) how often we'll flop TPTK or a draw to the nuts, and B) how often we'll make our draw, leading to C) an approximation of our implied odds here, assuming V folds flop when we make TPTK and calls when we flop a draw.

I'm not sure if donk-jam or check-jam is better on the flop, but my gut says donk-jam. Otherwise, V can check back lower PP's when we flop TPTK, and c-bet when we flop a draw, possibly giving us the wrong odds to continue.

I wonder how often this type of V is just jamming the flop with QQ and worse when it isn't ace or king-high. If he jams $620 into $380, we'd need 38% equity to continue. If we just donk-jam, perhaps V folds out some PP's or AK at a high enough frequency to make donk-jamming better than check-jamming.

his sizing is good and proper in theory, because it forces you to call a lot despite being OOP facing a really strong range. Its probably just a fold if i trust your "tight" read, even if its QQ+ AK, youre just gonna call and he will play perfectly against you postflop since QQ KK will pump the brakes if an overcard comes, and AA will stack your K or A hits, and AK will cbet a whiffed flop and take it down.

The biggest error you can make here is folding face up.

Random thinks...

1. I wonder how wide BTN may be when we're 3B'ing out of the CO, vs if we 3B from EP, like next to act over a UTG open, which should rep a very tight 3B'ing range. In theory, maybe he's wide enough here that a 5B jam is higher EV.

2. If we're playing 5B or fold here, what's our calling range look like? And if we fold AKs, what's our 5B'ing range look like?

Seems to me that flatting with any PP is just set-mining, and the odds of flopping a set seem less likely than flopping TPTK or a decent draw with AKs. To Tomark's point, if we have any flat continues here, does it make a difference if we have QQ or AKs, when V is in position and can play perfectly either way?

If we flop top set with QQ, is V going broke with AA/KK? What does our continuing range look like on a Q-high flop, if not QQ, in that scenario? What are we doing with QQ on AQX or KQX? I guess we're just going broke? I mean, we're not set-mining by calling pre, flopping a set, and check-folding, are we?

It wouldn't seem to make sense to flat call and check-fold flop when we don't make a set, or go broke with TPTK / a draw. It also doesn't seem to make sense to 5B-jam with just AA/KK, unless we think our opponents aren't capable of noticing and adjusting. And flatting from OOP with QQ+/AKs seems like it's inviting disaster, if V flops a set with TT+ and we're stacking off with AA/KK.

My gut feeling is I would prefer to flat call the 4B with AKs if we're too deep for V to comfortably jam flop, and probably balance by also calling with some PP's, maybe JJ+ that can set-mine, and also flatting with AA/KK at some frequency, so that we have enough diversity of hands in our pre-flop flatting range that we have options on a variety of boards.

All that said - we have AKs, we block AA/KK, and we're gambling. It can't be too terrible to just 5B-jam for $800 and let the poker gods sort it out.

A: We flop a made hand (top pair or better) 33.592% of the time. We flop a FD 10.94% of the time and we flop a gutter 11.21% of the time. So if we intend to jam made hands and/or FD, we are jamming 42.8% of the time. If we are adding gutters to that, then we're up to 51.1% of the time. It feels a bit gross shoving our gutters. So I'd assume we are jamming 42.8% of the time.

B: If we are against a range of TT+ and AK, our equity would 53% and win 43% with a FD. If we flop top pair our equity goes up to 70% and win 52%. Preflop, we have 41.9% equity and win 22.6% of the time. So if we assume V never folds pre, we are much better off getting it in post flop with FD + made hands.

57% of the time we miss completely and fold, losing $180 100% of the time.

34% of the time we hit top pair or better and have over 70% equity if we gii 100% of the time we would net $320 profit

9% of the time we have a naked FD with 53% equity, if we gii 100% of the time we net +$48

So if we assume we gii 100% of the time our math is -$102.60 + $108.80 + $4.32 = +$10.52 compared to preflop if our shove is called 100% we are paying $800 to win $688 against the assumed range. We are in a situation where if our estimate of V's range is accurate, we are losing in this hand. We are just trying to lose the minimum over the long run. Folding, we lose $80, shoving we lose $112. It's better to fold vs shove. We need 45% for a shove to break even. If V has one suited broadway, or goes as deep as 88 with his range, then we have 45% and can shove.

Whether the call is better is greatly dependent upon V's likelihood to make mistakes post flop, and our ability to get as much in as possible when we hit. If we can always gii with a FD but never gii with better, our math would look like this:

57% of the time miss -$180
34% of the time hit but don't get paid +180
9% of the time FD gets paid +$48

-$102.60 + $61.20 + $4.32 = -$37.08

Which isn't great, but is better than the $112 we lose shoving pre. If V is going to make some mistakes like maybe checking behind too often when we miss - say V has AK too, so he checks behind and gives us an opportunity to push him off a chop or for a BDFD to start coming in, or the flop is Q high and he checks JJ giving us another shot at hitting A or K. Now I feel pretty good that I can pick up some more equity. The math might look like this:

52% of the time miss -$180
5% of the time miss and win anyway +$180
34% of the time hit top pair+ don't get paid +$180
9% of the time +$48

-$93.60 + $9 +$61.2 + $4.32 = -$19.08

Of course, the math goes the other way if we make mistakes post flop.

TLDR: We lose $112 shoving preflop. We can lose less post flop getting the money in with FD or better shoving when we hit, folding when we whiff. Against more passive/fishier Vs, we can reduce our loss further and maybe eke out a profit against the fishiest with more nuanced post-flop play. Against more sharky Vs we run the risk of losing more postflop. The more V is going to put us in positions where we might make a mistake, the more we should be inclined to fold or shove pre. Of course, if V is the type to be aggressive post flop, they are probably opening wider than assumed (TT+ & AK), so we have enough equity to rip it in against Vs who have just 1-2 more hands in their range. Against any V that I respect, it's a rip. Against passive fishies that aren't going to be aggressive enough post flop, I think call is the best option, but fold is better than shoving.

Seems like the only way to ensure we have enough equity in our flatting range, AND to create opportunity for V to make mistakes post is to put more PP's including AA/KK into our pre-flop flatting range. And that seems like it would still be gambling that V doesn't show up with QQ on a Q-high flop when we have AA/KK.

I just don't see many, if any decent players saying we should just flat with AA/KK here.

FWIW, computers will mix in flats with AA/KK here, AKs gets shoved more frequently. IRL, I don't think it's necessary to be that balanced. If I have AA and V has shown they love their hand I'm just getting it in. I think I can count on my hand the number of times I've seen anyone 4-bet fold pre at $2/$5 or lower if I amputate a few fingers first.

Nobody will notice we aren't balanced. How many thousands of hands do you have to play to get a reasonable sample size of 4-bet pots OOP to know how a V is actually playing?

For practical purposes, if our flatting range includes just QQ and AK, we have strong hands that can gii on any flop. We become exploitable with our shoves which are overwhelmingly AA & KK, which means they should fold AK and QQ to exploit us. If anyone ever folds a 4-bet to me, they get put into that special bucket I'll 5-bet bluff against. It's a pretty empty bucket.

You don't have to amputate fingers. Just stop counting.

Errbuddy tryna be so extreme all the time.

I do think it's kind of silly, in that this spot almost never happens live and AKs can probably just fold vs. most and randomize fold/shove vs. everyone else and shrug at the result either way.

Saying that, solved preflop charts I have for 6max 100bb

LJ opens (robot size)
CO 3bets
BTN responds by:
Call a small amount: AKo/JJ/TT
Call about 50%: AQs/QQ
Cold 4bet a small amount: AQs/KTs/K5s
Cold 4bet about 50%: QQ/KQs/K6s
Cold 4bet 60-75%: AKo/K7s
Cold 4bet pure: AA/KK/AKs

9max UTG would be tighter for robot sizes, as should everyone else's responses.
No chart/solve on how the 3bettor responds to the cold 4bet ... but lol, look at that range.

Gtowizard has free preflop solves, not that i think its relevant, but here ya go. It pure 5 bets AKs. Ao yeah if the tight asian is cold 4 betting KQs and A5s and ATs+, we know what to do.

Great comments, guys!

Btw, in GTO Wizard with a subscription, can you manually set preflop ranges for opponents?

^---- Only for the Elite level. If you google "GTO Wizard Nodelocking" there is a help page that should come up first, and that has a link to where you can play around with nodelocking on one flop for free to see what it's like.

Pre is similar, however the custom preflop solver is only heads up, but when you are talking 3!, 4! vs a single V it is useful to get an idea of how we should adjust to varying sizes and ranges. I'm a big fan of just drawing the principles from solvers, not focusing on the specifics.

Sorry for being pedantic, but OP's question wasn't whether or not to 5B. It was at what stack depth can we flat call? Is there any depth where we can flat call? There must be, since there are depths at which we simply don't have any 5B range at all, even with AA.

If we're 350-400BB's deep or more, I think a case can be made for flatting, because V can 4B wider, and he can't just jam on a lot of flops. At this stack depth, we can't flat call, so we either 5B jam or fold.

To answer OP's implied question, about what a 5B jam achieves - it sometimes folds out some hands that are ahead or have decent equity. If V 4B's with JJ+/AK, and folds out JJ, QQ, and AK, a 5B-jam is a profitable bluff.

If we think V is only 4B'ing QQ+/AK, then before we 5B jam, we need to have some estimate of how often he calls or folds the 6 combos of QQ and the 9 combos of AK, knowing he's snapping us off with the 6 combos of AA/KK.