We're supposed to fold here right?

btw I chose 1/2 pot river because:

• I think 50% vs ship is the difference between few folds and a whole bunch of folds--exploitably few for 50%
  
• I really want to fold when this happens.
  

• We're not perceived to fold a boat, right?
  
• Does anyone even fold a flush?
  

Info on V? Vs randos /fish /laggy regs i call, vs tight regs i’d find a fold, although in game i might still flick it in cuz i’ll level myself that he is bluffing with AT

Pre: You're 200 eff and in position call all day long.

Flop: I'd raise a lot bigger, it's ace high with a FD. He has lots of Ax, and you could be semi-bluffing so he has to call a chunky raise with a lot of his range. I'd go at least 30bb here. You want to look like you're bullying.

Turn: Again, I think you can size up but I don't hate it. 50bb puts 160 in the pot, a river jam of 120 into 160 is harder for him to fold AK to than 140 into 140.

River: Why are we betting so small? You have the best possible hand you can have maybe excluding quads. The flush came in if he somehow has KQdd, just ship it.

Fold?!? Are we afraid of AA? AA 3! the flop at least a good chunk of the time. TT? I doubt he's chasing you down. You have the best hand almost always. AP, I think most likely he has A2 and just got coolered. Maybe he has A9/AT, maybe he has AK at thinks you're full of it, maybe he got a bit out of line with Kxdd and thinks he sucked out. K9dd makes sense. AP, you don't look like you have a boat from his shoes, so he might think he is getting value from AK with two pair or better. So he could be shoving worse for value. If he somehow has AA or 22, you just got coolered and it took longer than it should have because both of those should have gotten it in on the flop and obviously you are going nowhere on the flop.

I couldn't make this fold, and I think unless you can see his hole cards, you are never supposed to fold here.

"I think 50% vs ship is the difference between few folds and a whole bunch of folds--exploitably few for 50%" - You got a nutted hand, get full value when you cooler him, because he is going to get full value when he coolers you. If you want to target his bluff catchers like AK, then I think sizing up on the flop and/or the turn will do a better job. You're trying to get about 200bb in post flop, so 18, 40, 140 is tough for AK to make that last call on a scary board. But 30, 50 (into 84), 120 (into 184) - AK is going to feel "priced in" all along.

I’m not gonna put villain on exactly 3 combos without reads.

Pre is either a call or a mix call/fold, depending on reads on villain or even your exact MP position.

1/4p raise OTF seems a bit too small, especially if you’re getting skittish about getting stacks in on a pretty perfect runout. It doesn’t need to be big, but I’d probably just 3x it and call it a day.

I’m sorry to say, I don’t like the river sizing and it’s gonna be hard to convince me not to hate it. I mean, I prefer to avoid this exact scenario with any hand, but with the 3rd nut boat in particular a pot sized shove just seems perfectly natural.

I’m never really folding the river because a bad fold is just so catastrophic here, but I understand your misgivings.

This is probably going to sound mean ... but you don't give any explanation of what you are doing and why, and my first guess is that you don't know.
Because any real plan knows what to do on the last action.

Let's start with...
Flop: Ad9c2d
This is a 3bet pot and an A high disconnected flop, you can't have that many raises anyway ... but you raise pretty small indicating that you are raising a bunch. This even though the nuts on the flop are entirely in V's range.

Roughly these types of combos. have direct equity:

NFD
9x+FD
AK
99
22
A9

...but there's nothing stopping V from having all of them at roughly the same frequencies.
Also 99 being literally your best value hand feels weird to be in a small raise size bucket, unless you only have one size or are mixing it into multiple buckets.

H's small size is attacking the fact that a lot of your range is crushed on this board by a lot of his range, and your small size feels like maybe it's trying to attack that without really knowing why it's happening. Maybe you have a read that he only bets small with KK, and not with AK, so you can exploit it by small raising AJ here (but then lol, why post snap call river).

Then we move on to...
Turn: Ad9c2d 2c

This is a pretty bad card for the equity/value flop raise range, even though your particular hand is fine with it.
All of your 9x+FD and NFD hands hate it, 22 is now a third of the combos. it used to be.
Also if he has KdQd or something he's now drawing OOP and might be dead already.
Any lower equity draws you bluff raised on the flop hate it (assuming you have 54/53/43), because he has AcKc.
The best case is that if you are capable of raising backdoor low equity draws as flop bluffs (Eg. KcQc/JcTc) that has now picked up equity ... but the board pairing dampens that a lot.

But we ignore that and bet big.

What are you expecting him to be calling here?

And then...
River: Ad9c2d2c Td

The front door flush hits as does AcTc ... and we size down again.

If you are trying to get him to bluff raise or hero call AxKd, it seems too big. If you are trying to get him to call and lose with KdQd it seems obviously small when you can just shove.

What bluffs do you have here? Does JcTc really shrug bet half pot as a bluff?
Does A9 shrug bet half pot as value?

The fact he raises and we now have to guess if he's decided due to the weird sizes KdQd/AcTc/whatever is the nuts, or he always had it with AA, or somehow has 22 and got there on the turn is the most shrugable part. We maybe play 22 the same way, but have to call way more than one combo unless we are doing an exploitable play (and it would be a _huge_ exploit, at that, so we have to be _very_ certain that he never raises without AA/22).

oh I have literally no misgivings prior to the river lol

And I respectfully decline your challenge to elaborate more 😀

This basically all I care about. Any thoughts or no?

• I think 50% vs ship is the difference between few folds and a whole bunch of folds--exploitably few for 50%
  
• I really want to fold when this happens. (and I think it happens more often than you're realizing--like I said, fold pre?)
  
  
• We're not perceived to fold a boat, right?
  
• Does anyone even fold a flush (on either side of this river exchange)?
  

I propose a challenge of my own:

Assume:
1. OOP xf exploitably infrequently vs 50% pot (ex: almost never folds and ace)
2. OOP xf exploitably often vs ship (ex: xf an ace ~80% of the time--guarantee he's gotta snap more often
3. OOP xr too strong, such that 99 aren't winning often enough to call it off

Prove that b-f is not higher EV than ship for pot.

(And I accept you challenge in the end because that was both my computation and my work)

There are 4 combos that beat you in the deck, you're getting 5:1 odds, so if V has 1 combo that might do this, it's +EV to call.

There are 6 combos of A2, + KQ, K9 flushes. 8 combos that could think they are shoving for value and would often play post flop this way. Pre flop is where most of these combos can be discounted, but if they get there 15% of the time you should call. This is assuming V absolutely never bluffs this line and recognizes AK is no good. Which maybe V does some portion.

Folding is a clear blunder. Getting into this situation in the first place is the bigger blunder because you are giving up a ton of value from moderate hands. AK might fold the river AP, but it's calling the flop and turn for bigger sizes. Your focus when you're this strong should be getting the money in, the earlier you gii, the more likely V is to call lighter. When value betting, you want the river to be smaller and the flop & turn larger.

I don't play 10/10, so this is going to be from a lower stakes point of view.

The main questions are what is the villain's 3 bet range pf and what does the villain think is a big hand on a paired board?

I'm not a good enough player to fold a full house getting 5:1 on the river against an unknown.

Yes, but I respectfully decline your challenge to elaborate more 😀

Flop sizing is too small. I get you want him to call, but almost a click back and on an ace-high 2-flush flop.

On the river, I think you are only losing to AA/TT/22. Practically, speaking only AA. He isn't getting to the river this way with TT. He probably isn't 3-betting 22 and there is only one combination of it. In a 10/10 game with this configuration, he should be 3-betting a lot more than AA. Maybe you got coolered, but obviously can't fold the river.

I mean, this feels like asking “assuming that Washington’s horse is white, prove that it’s black.” We didn’t get any reads, so if (somehow) you know all those things, then go nuts.

But to me, the more interesting questions are how much would he have to be X/f’ing river to be exploitable against a 1/2p shove versus a full pot shove, how strong his shove range would have to be for you to exploit it by folding this hand, how much you stand to gain by exploiting this hand over time, how much you stand to lose if you’re off by 1 combo, how much you stand to lose if you’re off by 5 combos, how much you stand to lose if you’re off by 20 combos, etc.

Reading between the lines, I feel what’s happening might be intuition rather than math: villain calls more when you bet half pot (but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be full pot), you’re usually behind when he shoves (but that doesn’t mean you should fold, much less that you should bet small specifically to induce a situation where you can fold), etc.

Just a hunch on my part.

is this a troll post or a bad beat story? fold a full house on the river getting like 4:1? fold preflop with 99? sounds like BBV.

the only real strat i can offer is to 3b pf sometimes.

Not just a full house, but a high 4th nut full house, effective 2nd nuts, on a flush board.

As far as strategy, flop sizing is bad.

well that too

id just pot the flop. Ax is not folding. everything else is.

You don't have to x/r pot. However, there was a cbet of 80 and a x/r to 180. That is literally just over the legal minimum. Go to at least make it 3x to 240. If he folds, he folds. You also want to represent a flush draw and the click it back x/r doesn't do that well.

Grunch:

I don't play this big, so I can only go by what I see at 1/3, some 2/5, and small tournaments.

PRE - Seems pretty standard. I'm not folding 99 to a 4x 3B from the SB, if we're deep enough to go set-mining and IP.

FLOP - Seems pretty standard, though I would probably bigger than 2.25x with middle set, especially when his c-bet is only 1/3 pot. I'd probably go 3x.

I don't hate the smaller raise size, because his 1/3 pot c-bet on an ace-high, two-tone flop doesn't look overly strong, and we don't want him to fold.

TURN - Interesting spot. Think we can over-bet, or at least pot it, to set up a less than PSB jam on the river.

My reasoning is that he c-bet the ace-high, two-tone flop, and called a raise (albeit, a small one). Maybe our small raise size lets him float somewhat wide, but he can't be THAT wide in a 3B pot, c-betting and calling a raise on an ace-high board. Whatever he has, he likes it enough to c-bet and call a raise, so he's probably not folding to a PSB on a brick turn.

We have to think about what our range looks like here. We can't have TP + a flush draw on the flop, so our flop raising range is 2P/sets for value, and diamond draws that likely center around the 9, like 9Xdd, or some combo that's four to a flush and three to a straight, like JTdd or 87dd.

Are we ever taking this line with KQdd? That seems unlikely.

We're pretty polar, I think, and so I think we should bet polar, and go large, to either rep 2P+ for value, or some sort of combo draw or pair + a draw.

RIVER - Weird spot, when our most likely bluffs get there on the river, and our 2P combos get seriously downgraded.

The small raise and smallish turn bet let V get to the river with flush draws, as well as all the AX combos, including AT. If we were taking this line with A9, it wouldn't make sense for us to jam, and I'm not sure we'd even want to bet 1/2 pot. I'd think A9 would check back here, at least sometimes, or just bet small.

We can't have JTdd when the Td hits the river. We could conceivably have some other flushes, but I'd think they'd just jam. I mean, would you bet 1/2 pot with a flush here, when it's so obvious that we want to get called?

I think I might actually size WAY down here, to look like A9, like maybe bet 50-60bb, hoping to induce V to jam.

As played - yeesh. We can't fold. If he's got AA, TT, or 22 (LOL), he's just getting paid. Our line may have induced this.

I wonder if he might do this with AT that thinks we have AK/AQ/AJ/A9 and he sucked out on us.

He might have some nut flushes, maybe KQdd or KJdd, if he thinks we're taking this line with A9s, or perhaps some sort of combo draw that was getting OOL, like 87dd.

To respond to the second post:

-I don't like 1/2 pot bet sizing. I'd either size down as much as seems reasonable, hoping to induce a raise, or just jam to polarize.
-I really don't want to fold, no matter what happens.
-I don't see how we could ever fold a boat, or how we could be perceived to fold a boat, but I do see how we could have a lot more 2P than boats.
-If we somehow got here with the nut flush, I'd have a hard time folding it. But most of our flushes that raise the flop won't be the nut flush, and I would definitely fold a J-high or 8-high flush.

I may have to steal this exact phrasing for future use.

Don't expect me to credit you as the source. You'll get no credit from me, sir.

I'm dastardly like that.

After reading others' posts, I've re-thought this hand...

PRE - just call.

FLOP - just call.

Why are we even raising here? We lose to AA, and crush everything else. Why not just flat call, and let him barrel off, or start betting our hand for value if he checks turn or river?

TURN - As played on the flop, I might check back here, because nothing's changed. We still lose to AA, and we're boated up, so it makes sense to check back, like we're giving up or worried we're beat, so V can stab the river as a bluff.

RIVER - As played to this point, either bet 10%-20% pot to induce a raise, or jam and pray V didn't let us value-own ourselves by slow-playing AA. Betting 1/2 pot to get called by more of V's range has to be a mistake, especially if we're considering bet-folding.

Hell no, we're never folding 99 here. Not getting 5 to 1, not even getting 2 to 1. If we have a read that V is nitty AF and never has worse for value, okay, maybe in that scenario we fold, but if we know V is really that nitty, we shouldn't take this line.

I can't imagine taking this line with KXdd, but if we did, I probably wouldn't fold getting 5:1. If we took this line with 87dd (again, can't imagine we would, but if we did), I might fold, but I might not, because what the hell are we doing taking this line with 87dd, and getting there on the river, but then bet-folding?

This thread being posted makes me think OP called and V had AA, or folded and V showed AT. Even if V had AA, and OP folded, it's a terrible line, and it would be better to fold pre than to go raise-bet-bet/fold with a boat.

But folding pre or taking this line aren't the only choices. If V has AA, we can flat flop, flat turn, and flat river, and probably lose less, or at least not have to agonize over bet-folding the river.

If V did have AA, and took this line, good for him. I'd think AA would c-bet bigger or 3B the flop at some frequency, and possibly raise turn at some frequency, and donk river at some frequency.

If V turns a worse value hand into a bluff, and makes hero fold, even better for him, especially if he did it to make hero fold 99.

The problem with not x/ring flop is you want to get stacks in and it is 200xBB deep. If it was against some random at 1/3, then x/c all the way might be best, partly because AA would be such a big part of his 3! range. Here he may be playing 3! or fold out of the SB, so his preflop range should be wide.