1/3 Do we thin value 3barrel a station?

I think you should cbet again, and evaluate river. Good card for your range.

I like $125.

All options open on tiver based on reads if he calls.

Are 99-jj, 8x, qx type of hands going to call three barrels? I doubt it, even if we keep the barrels small. I think you have to check at least once, and if you fire, fire, I think you need to x/c most rivers to anything short of a shove. So I think we need to decide between checking turn or checking river. It's probably pretty close either way.

There aren't a lot of draws, and if V had T9 or JT, he might be inclined to try to turn those into a bluff. I think I'd give him the chance to do that OTT, plan on check calling turn, and mixing x/c x/f OTR if we fail to improve. If turn checks through, we can value bet most rivers comfortably and probably for a bigger size than you might think because bet flop, check through turn, big bet river looks bluffy. I think QJ looks us up a lot. So I'd plan on going for pot if turn checks through.

If we bet turn, then I think we x/c most reasonably sized rivers. If V is going to call us with Qx or JJ, betting turn is probably best, but I think most live Vs overfold when the king comes. If we bet half pot, he should be calling us with hands like A8, or QT. I don't think real people are doing that. If I was bluffing and didn't have a queen, I'd bet this turn 100% expected JJ, A8, QT type of hands to fold sometimes and almost always fold when I follow up on the river. I'd expect V to mostly raise if he hit with like KQ. So looking for value, I'd check here to induce bluffs or cap his range so I can bet chunky on the river without too much fear.

As an aside, I think the flop bet could be bigger. You're going to get a ton of folds on this board even for $50, and most that call $50 probably call more too. So I'd fire $120. You're still getting called by weaker Qx and often enough by JJ/TT. I don't think going small is "wrong", but betting larger looking to really cash in on KQ/QJ is something to consider. (though obviously, with this turn it's ugly if he has KQ!)

Ok

Hero bets 125, V calls fairly quickly

Pot 543
River 2, Hero???

Grunch:

The hand histories just make V sound passive, maybe not stationy.

PRE - I'd raise bigger, to $90, at least.

FLOP - could go either way between checking and c-betting.

If we c-bet, I would bet a little larger, like 49% pot, especially if we think V is passive and won't stab, or stationy and will float too wide. Since he was the original raiser, and probably doesn't have much of a 4B range, I think I'd just check from OOP, expecting him to stab with a lot of his worse pairs and AK.

TURN - think we can just go into pot control mode and check. Doubtful V is going to continue calling with worse. If he's truly passive or stationy, he's unlikely to start bluffing. If he starts blasting off, we can be pretty sure we're beat.

I'd probably check-call a reasonable sized bet on the turn, and check-evaluate the river. If he snap bets big here, I just fold.

You bet small on flop and turn, allowing V to get here with a really wide range. Doubtful he's got 2P+, because he's shown he'll raise with his strong hands. Also doubtful he calls a third barrel with worse, unless we size way down.

His fast call on the turn is likely to either be a draw, or a better hand that wasn't folding but also didn't need to think hard about possibly raising. At best he probably has Kx. He might have QJ or some PP lower than QQ.

Even if we bet small, he's folding all his missed draws, and may not call with worse 1P. Does he EVER bluff if we check here?

Think I might check and hope he stabs at it. Just calling if he bets 1/2 to 2/3 pot. Folding if he pots it or over-bets. Min-clicking if he bets less than 1/2 pot.

I agree with doc, check with the intention to call a reasonable size. If he bets big, then you just have to roll with your read. I think most worse hands will check back. Maybe a lot of people find a bluff OTR with JT, but most wouldn't have the guts to bomb it. So if he bets big pretty sure we're dead. If he bets half pot, I think we grudgingly call.

How passive is villain preflop? I'm not exactly thrilled with 3betting AQ against passive openers. But difficult spot cuz I'm not loving flatting and going multiway OOP either, especially with offsuit variety. Against tighter openers I actually lean to a nitty preflop fold here, but I think all 3 plays are probably arguable depending on things.

I'm cool with the flop.

None of the HHs indicate that this guy is stationy enough to call down with like 3rd pear. So I check the turn. If he bets, might be a difficult spot. Perhaps calling one small bet if he could stab at it with a smaller pear. Note that I'd also prolly put AK in his range at this point too, no?

If turn goes check/check then I would put out a small value bet on a non-stoopid river trying to get value from underpairs.

ETA: What draws is villain getting to the river with? A passive player raises JT preflop? A passive player bluffs the river when checked to? Even a stationish player snap calls a bet of over 1 stack of reds with QJ? I prolly check/fold the river. And not a fan of how big this pot is OOP with a very mediocre hand. But that's me.

GcluelessNLnoobG

So much depends on reads/image/feel.

I'm 3 barreling small here the rest of the way. As described, if V is calling station he's not re-raising/shoving at any point. It's a home game, most of those have horrible play from villains.